scholarly journals Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Ebeke ◽  
Armand Fouejieu
2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (228) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Ebeke ◽  
Armand Fouejieu ◽  
◽  

2007 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Allegret

During the 90s, recurrent exchange rate crises in emerging markets have shown the extreme fragility of soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. As a result, numerous academic economists but also International institutions have promoted a new consensus: domestic authorities have to choose their exchange rate regime between only two solutions called corner solutions or extreme regimes: hard pegs or independent floating. This paper questions de relevance of this consensus. We stress the main advantages and costs of each corner solution. We conclude by stressing that intermediate regimes associated to an inflation targeting framework seem a better solution for emerging countries than corner solutions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Ebeke ◽  
Armand Fouejieu

Abstract This paper investigates the effects of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging markets (EMs), conditional on certain macroeconomic conditions. Using a large sample of EMs and after dampening the endogeneity of the adoption of IT using a selection on observables, we find that IT countries on average have a relatively more flexible exchange rate regime than other EMs. However, the flexibility of the exchange rate regime shows strong heterogeneity among IT countries. IT countries with low trade and financial openness and with a large share of external debt exhibit a lower exchange rate flexibility than others. Moreover, the marginal effect of IT adoption on the exchange rate flexibility increases with the duration of the IT regime in place, and with the propensity scores to adopt it.


Significance While futures markets are assigning a 28% probability to a rate hike this month, emerging markets (EMs) are likely to remain under strain regardless of whether the Fed tightens policy or decides to wait longer. While a rate hike in September is likely to strengthen the dollar, putting further pressure on EM currencies, a delay risks being perceived by investors as an indication of the severity of the China-induced market turbulence. Impacts The rise in US interest rates has been well anticipated and will prove less disorderly than the 2013 'taper tantrum'. The strong dollar will put strain on fixed exchange rate regimes, such as dollar pegs in Africa and the Middle East. The benefits to EM exports from the declines in local currencies will be offset by the slump in China's demand.


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 499-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice Obstfeld ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little relevance in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions. Our findings suggest that exchange rate regimes do matter, at least for emerging market economies. The transmission of global financial shocks to domestic variables is magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible regimes. For advanced economies, however, the jury is still out, as the recent paucity of truly fixed regimes among these economies poses a challenge for estimating the effect of exchange rate flexibility.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rene Cabral ◽  
Francisco G. Carneiro ◽  
Andre Varella Mollick

Author(s):  
Alejandra Cabello ◽  
Edgar Iván Ortiz ◽  
Robert I. Johnson

This paper tests if the efficient market version of Purchasing Power Parity (EMPPP) holds for the Mexican case for the 1970-2002 period in an environment of changing exchange rate regimes. Two regression analyses which extend PPP to a dynamic intertemporal model, based on market efficiency, are used, and in addition two unit root tests are applied. In general, the obtained empirical evidence does not support the EMPPP. Results suggest an inefficient market resulting from weak exchange rate policies and weak adoptions of several exchange rate regimes without proper inflation targeting and the application of strong and disciplined macroeconomic policies and structural changes.  


2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kosta Josifidis ◽  
Jean-Pierre Allegret ◽  
Emilija Beker-Pucar

The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.


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