The Information Content of an Increase in Federal Funds Rate from a Zero Lower Bound Environment

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Violeta Diaz ◽  
Harikumar Sankaran ◽  
Subramanian R. Iyer
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Gilchrist ◽  
David López-Salido ◽  
Egon Zakrajšek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Pass Through

This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). For the ZLB period, we identify two policy surprises: changes in the two-year Treasury yield around policy announcements and changes in the ten-year Treasury yield that are orthogonal to those in the two-year yield. The efficacy of unconventional policy in lowering real borrowing costs is comparable to that of conventional policy, in that it implies a complete pass-through of policy-induced movements in Treasury yields to comparable-maturity private yields. (JEL E31, E43, E44, E52)

scholarly journals Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Oliver Berg
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Density Forecasts ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

AbstractThis paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As a benchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables, estimated shrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain alternative specifications of the zero lower bound. I account for the possibility that the effect of monetary policy on the economy is different in this regime, replace the federal funds rate by its shadow rate, consider a logarithmic transformation, feed in monetary policy shocks, or utilize conditional forecasts allowing for all shocks implemented through a rejection sampler. The latter two are also coupled with interest rate expectations from future contracts. It is shown that the predictive densities of all these specifications are greatly different, suggesting that this modeling choice is not innocuous. The comparison is based on the accuracy of point and density forecasts of major US macroeconomic series during the period 2009:1 to 2014:4. The introduction of the zero lower bound is not beneficial per se, but it depends on how it is done and which series is forecasted. With caution, I recommend the shadow rate specification and the rejection sampler combined with interest rate expectations to deal with the nonlinearity in the policy rate. Since the policy rate will remain low for some time, these findings could prove useful for practical forecasters.

scholarly journals Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stan Hurn ◽  
Nicholas Johnson ◽  
Annastiina Silvennoinen ◽  
Timo Teräsvirta
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Smooth Transitions

Abstract This paper examines the Taylor rule in the context of United States monetary policy since 1965, particularly with respect to the zero-lower-bound era of the federal funds rate from 2009 to 2016. A nonlinear Taylor rule is developed which features smooth transitions in the first two moments of the federal funds rate. This flexible specification is found to usefully capture observed nonlinearity, while accounting for the well-documented structural changes in monetary policy formation at the Federal Reserve in the last 50 years, and especially in the recent zero-lower-bound era.

scholarly journals Where Would the Federal Funds Rate Be, If It Could Be Negative?

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis W. Talman ◽  
Saeed Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Forecasting ◽  
Unconstrained Path

In the wake of Great Recession, the Federal Reserve engaged in conventional monetary policy actions by reducing the federal funds rate. But soon the rate hit zero, and could go no lower. In such environments, policymakers still think in terms of where the federal funds rate should be, were it possible to go negative. To project the "unconstrained path" of the funds rate—ignoring the zero lower bound—and to identify the key underlying shocks driving that path, we employ a statistical macroeconomic forecasting model. We find that the federal funds rate would have been extremely negative during 2009-2010.

scholarly journals Identification at the Zero Lower Bound

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (6) ◽  
pp. 2855-2885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophocles Mavroeidis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Structural Vector

I show that the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates can be used to identify the causal effects of monetary policy. Identification depends on the extent to which the ZLB limits the efficacy of monetary policy. I propose a simple way to test the efficacy of unconventional policies, modeled via a “shadow rate.” I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy using a three‐equation structural vector autoregressive model of inflation, unemployment, and the Federal Funds rate. I reject the null hypothesis that unconventional monetary policy has no effect at the ZLB, but find some evidence that it is not as effective as conventional monetary policy.

scholarly journals A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (064) ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Callum Jones ◽  
◽  
Mariano Kulish ◽  
James Morley ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Structural Measure

We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our structural shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.

Domestic and Cross-border Impact of US Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-181
Author(s):  
Qianying Chen ◽  
Andrew Filardo ◽  
Dong He ◽  
Feng Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

This is a chapter of the domestic impact as well as cross-border spillovers of US monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) to advanced and emerging economies. We estimate the empirical relevance of the various channels of international policy transmission with a global vector error correction macroeconometric model. To address the challenge of measuring the stance of monetary policy at the ZLB, we proxy it with a shadow federal funds rate, which captures the impact of central bank balance sheet policies. We find evidence that US monetary policy was effective in stimulating the US economy. For many of the other economies, the spillovers from the quantitative easing had sizeable and persistent impacts on output growth, inflation, and equity returns. The responses in the emerging economies were rather diverse. In terms of exchange rates, a number of emerging economy currencies faced strong appreciation pressures (e.g. Malaysian ringgit and Korean won).

A Test of Neo-Fisherism: 1964–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter V. Bias ◽  
Joshua D. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Classical View ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractNeo-Fisherism, the theory that monetary authorities should expect inflation rates to be positively and causally related to their targeted nominal interest rates, is reviewed and empirically investigated. Using several different measures of interest rates and inflation we analyze US monthly data from January 1964 to April 2019. Granger causality tests are performed in search of a Neo-Fisherist impact of interest rates causally impacting inflation or the reverse. The full period is reviewed and is also divided into three sub-periods: the period before the Federal Reserve targeted federal funds rate at 25 basis points (labeled here as the effective lower bound, ELB), the ELB period, and the post-ELB period. Prior to the effective lower bound, we find evidence largely supporting the classical view of causality from inflation to interest rates, however the relationship is bidirectional depending on the measurement of inflation and interest rates. During the ELB, we find moderate evidence in support of Neo-Fisherism. In this period, federal funds rate Granger-cause changes in inflation as measured using the CPI and Core CPI. In contrast, during the effective lower bound period, the standard classical result holds when considering the Shadow federal funds rate. In the period following the effective lower bound, the standard relationship is found as well, in which inflation granger causes movements in the interest rates. Overall, the results regarding causality between interest rates and inflation largely support the classical view of causality but are dependent on data measurements and the observed time period.

The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is it Unique?

1995 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle R. Garfinkel ◽  
Daniel L. Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate
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