The Economic Effects of Electoral Uncertainty: An Analysis of a Direct Measure of Uncertainty in Business' Economic Expectations During Pre- and Post-Election Periods in Germany, 1975-2000

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Buthe
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
Direct Measure ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Electoral Uncertainty ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty

Eurasian Economic union: Prospects and challenges for Development

2015 ◽  
pp. 87-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Knobel
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Gas Transfer ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
Integration Problems ◽  
Integration Challenge

The paper is devoted to the analysis of development prospects and problems of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. It considers integration problems inside EAEU, interactions of EAEU with other CIS countries and with countries from the rest of the world. The paper shows that the major integration challenge inside EAEU is the domination of the redistributive motive over the creative one. It estimates the value of the oil and gas transfer from Russia to other EAEU members and the influence of the Russian tax maneuver on this transfer. The paper shows the need in redistribution mechanism inside EAEU as a necessary condition for getting the potential positive economic effects of free trade with other countries. It also assesses the risks for EAEU due to Russian embargo for food imports from countries of the sanctions list and possible application of tariff in the trade with Ukraine.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Economic Effects of 2004-2009 Tax Reforms: Retrospective Analysis

2012 ◽  
pp. 108-123
Author(s):  
E. Penukhina ◽  
D. Belousov ◽  
K. Mikhailenko
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Tax Policy ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Tax Policies ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
Budget System

The article determines, describes and analyzes phases of tax reforms in Russia. We estimate macroeconomic and fiscal effects of various tax policies held during the second and third phases of tax reforms. The necessity of providing a balanced budget system, as well as complex assessment of effects of tax policy changes for the development of the Russian economy is noted.

Socio-economic effects of labor migration from small towns of Russia

2016 ◽  
pp. 103-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Mkrtchyan ◽  
Y. Florinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Labor Migration ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Spatial Mobility ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
High Labor ◽  
Standardized Interview

The article examines labor migration from small Russian towns: prevalence of the phenomenon, the direction and duration of trips, spheres of employment and earnings of migrants, social and economic benefits of migration for households. The representative surveys of households and migrant-workers by a standardized interview were conducted in four selected towns. Authors draw a conclusion about high labor spatial mobility of the population of small towns and existence of positive effects for migrant’s households and the economy of towns themselves.

The Role of Threat and Economic Uncertainty in Support for Scottish Independence

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Kopasker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Levels Of Support

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.

Economic effects of winter wheat fertilization

2006 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 825-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruzica Loncaric ◽  
Zdenko Loncaric ◽  
Krunoslav Zmaic
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Economic Effects

Large-sample confidence intervals of information-theoretic measures in linguistics

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-54
Author(s):  
Ryan Ka Yau Lai ◽  
Youngah Do
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Corpus Linguistics ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Confidence Bounds ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Leibler Divergence ◽  
Information Theoretic Measures ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty

This article explores a method of creating confidence bounds for information-theoretic measures in linguistics, such as entropy, Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD), and mutual information. We show that a useful measure of uncertainty can be derived from simple statistical principles, namely the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the delta method. Three case studies from phonology and corpus linguistics are used to demonstrate how to apply it and examine its robustness against common violations of its assumptions in linguistics, such as insufficient sample size and non-independence of data points.

The Clinical and Economic Effects of Switching Medicare Beneficiaries with Type 2 Diabetes from Analog to Human Insulin

Diabetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4-OR
Author(s):  
JING LUO ◽  
NAZLEEN F. KHAN ◽  
THOMAS MANETTI ◽  
JAMES J. ROSE ◽  
ANI KALOGHLIAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Human Insulin ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries

The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks

CFA Digest ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-39
Author(s):  
M.E. Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks
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