Trifurcation - An Approach to Analyzing the Impact of Risk Treatment Alternatives

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Bar Yaacov ◽  
David N. Ingram
2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03019
Author(s):  
Wenjian ZHU

The influence of melamine incident on dairy industry in 2008 was investigated, and the control effect of different enterprises on the black swan incident was analyzed. First of all, this paper analyzes the impact of the stock of listed companies in the dairy industry after the black swan incident, and compares the impact of the different risk treatment of several leading enterprises on the stock price recovery. The results show that: first, the melamine incident has a negative effect on the enterprises involved, and the enterprises involved do not have a competitive advantage. Second, in the same period, enterprises pay more attention to the influence of black swan event and take more powerful measures. The greater the risk treatment intensity is, the less the influence of black swan event will be. Third, the two enterprises have similar risk handling strength. The faster the response to risk events, the earlier the processing time, and the less affected by the black swan event.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 2152-2152
Author(s):  
Teresa Field ◽  
Janelle Perkins ◽  
Marcie Tomblyn ◽  
Ryan Hillgruber ◽  
Taiga Nishihori ◽  
...  

Abstract HCT is the only known curative treatment for MDS. Treatment with the DNA methyltransferase inhibitor 5-azacitidine (aza) can slow leukemic progression and has been utilized prior to HCT for both tumor debulking and to provide stabilization of the disease during the pre-allograft period. To discern the impact of pretransplant aza treatment on HCT outcomes, we retrospectively analyzed 132 patients (pts) according to pretransplant aza exposure. Patients included those who had a diagnosis of MDS or CMML at any time point in the course of their disease who subsequently received a HCT from a HLA-compatible donor. Eligible patients proceeded to transplant if they had adverse disease features such as elevated IPSS risk, treatment related MDS, progression of disease or refractory disease. Consecutive patients referred for HCT between July 2004 and July 2009 were evaluated. Seventy percent of pts with an identified donor proceeded to HCT. All received a myeloablative HCT using fludarabine and IV-busulfan [targeted to a specific AUC of 3500, 5300, 6000 or 7500]. Graft versus host disease prophylaxis was with tacrolimus plus methotrexate or sirolimus or mycophenolate mofetil. Only those with mismatched donors received antithymocyte globulin. The median age of the 64 allograft pts not receiving preHCT aza (No AZA group) was 56.8 (24.8 –73.5) years (yrs). Thirty-seven (58%) pts were older than 55 yrs. At diagnosis, IPSS risk was Low (n=4), Int-1 (n=23), Int-2 (n=13), High (n=5), not evaluable (n=4) (NE), AML (n=16) and CMML (n=9). Seventeen had treatment related MDS (tMDS) and 18 had AML at one time. Donors included 24 sibling donors (MRD), 29 matched unrelated donors (MUD) and 11 mismatched unrelated donors (mMUD). Median follow-up is 66.2 months (29.7 – 105.7 months). Sixty-eight pts received a median of four (1-12) cycles of aza prior to HCT (YES AZA group). The median age was 57.3 (25.6 – 73.8) yrs. Thirty-nine pts (57%) were older than 55 yrs. At diagnosis, IPSS risk was Low (n=3), Int-1 (n=21), Int-2 (n=21), High (n=12), NE (n=2), AML (n=2) and CMML (n=7). Eighteen had tMDS and 10 had AML at one point. Donors included MRD (n=32), MUD (n=31) and mMUD (n=5). Median follow-up is 53.8 months (24.1 – 103.2 months). Prior to transplant the number of marrow blasts in the No-AZA vs Yes-AZA was: <5% (n=37 vs 36), 5-10% (n=12 vs 14), 11 – 20% (n=9 vs 9), >20% (n=2 vs 3) and CMML (n=4 vs 6). All patients engrafted with no difference in engraftment rates or toxicities between the two groups. Additionally, cumulative incidence of non-relapse mortality and relapse rates at 1 yr/ 3 yrs were similar [NRM: No AZA 20.5/ 37.4% vs Yes AZA 20.7/ 23.9 %; REL: 34.2/ 37.5% vs 26.4/ 32.4%]. At 3 years, the RFS and OS suggest improvement with pretransplant AZA but do not reach statistical significance [RFS: No AZA 26% vs Yes AZA 44.1%; p = 0.14; OS: 30.9% vs 51.4%; p=0.15]. Utilization of pre-HCT 5-azaciticidine is a feasible strategy and doesn’t appear to have any negative impact on HCT outcomes. Given the disease control facilitated by aza it should be offered to patients with high risk MDS coming to transplant. Disclosures: Field: Celgene: Research Funding. Alsina:Millennium: Membership on an entity’s Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Lancet:Celgene: Research Funding. List:Celgene: Research Funding. Komrokji:Celgene: Research Funding, Speakers Bureau.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 3652-3652
Author(s):  
Nadine Gretenkort Andersson ◽  
Susanna Ranta ◽  
Tony Frisk ◽  
Maria Winther Gunnes ◽  
Jon Helgestad ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are at high risk for VTE due to several thrombotic risk factors such as the disease itself, central venous line (CVL), immobilization, infections and treatment with asparaginase and steroids, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Identifying the clinical risk factors and high risk treatment phases for VTE is important and can lead to a better outcome and quality of life for these children. We conducted this prospective study on symptomatic VTE in children with ALL to characterize the prevalence, the clinical characteristics, and potential clinical predictive factors for symptomatic VTE and the impact of thrombosis on treatment delays. Methods All patients (n=1083), age 1-18 years, diagnosed with B-cell precursor or T-cell ALL between June 2008 and July 2013 and enrolled in the NOPHO ALL 2008 treatment protocol in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), Estonia or Lithuania were included in the study. Thrombotic events (TE) were prospectively recorded until the end of December 2013. TE was defined as objectively confirmed symptomatic TE. Main questions were: time of VTE occurrence, impact on treatment delay, type of CVL, dysfunction of the CVL, blood samples including D-dimers and thrombophilia screening, family history of TE, type and duration of antithrombotic therapy, and major bleeding during anticoagulation. Results The cumulative risk of symptomatic VTE was 6.0% (CI 95% 4.7-7.7) for children treated with the NOPHO- ALL 2008 protocol. No arterial TE was found. VTE occurred in median 80 (IQR 43-118) days in the SR and 104 (IQR 39-127) days in the IR protocol and were in majority of cases associated with asparaginase treatment (84.5%, 49/58). See figure 1 for the localization of the VTE. VTE had a high impact on the treatment in the patients. Treatment with asparaginase was shortened in half of patients with VTE and chemotherapy treatment delayed in 25%. Age ≥ 15 years and residual disease ≥ 5% after induction therapy was significantly associated with VTE in the multivariate analysis (Table 1). Conclusions Our findings indicate that Venous Thromboembolism (VTE): - is a major complication of ALL treatment - may lead to reduced intensity of the ALL treatment and subsequently possible long term impact on the EFS - risk is dependent on the patients age and residual disease after leukemia induction The possibility of identifying patients with elevated risk of VTE needs to be studied further and thromboprophylaxis for such patients during high-risk treatment phases can be considered in future ALL protocols. Table 1. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of the risk for VTE Factor HR (95% CI) P value Age category, years 1-7 8-14 15-17 Ref1.9 (1.0-3.7)6.2 (3.4-11.3) <0.000 0.044 0.000 Gender Male 1.6 (0.9-2.8) 0.074 ALL phenotype B-precursor T-cell Bilineage Ref2.3 (1.2-4.2)4.2 (1.0-17.4) 0.019 0.010 0.047 Residual disease ≥ 5% day 29 4.1 (1.9-9.0) 0.001 Figure 1. Localization of VTE Figure 1. Localization of VTE Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 553-566
Author(s):  
Vinicios R. dos Santos ◽  
Gabriela O. de Carvalho ◽  
José Bruno N. F. Silva

Sepsis frequently leads to multiple organ failure and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in critically ill patients. Although intensive care protocols and antibiotic therapy have improved sepsis treatment, specific management is lacking with respect to efficient protection from tissue damage and long-term outcomes. Probiotics are live microbes that modulate the immune system and inflammation and colonize the gut. In this narrative review, we have traced the evolution of the administration of probiotics in an animal model of sepsis and treatment alternatives in the intensive care unit setting. First, probiotics are categorized by species before describing their modulation of the microbiota, repair of tissue-specific damage, immune response, and molecular pathways to prevent complications. The impact on therapy for infant and adult patients is also addressed. Finally, we have emphasized the challenges and gaps in current studies as well as future perspectives for further investigation. The present review can open up avenues for new strategies that employ promising probiotic strains for the treatment of sepsis and discusses their ability to prevent disease-associated long-term complications.


1986 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 569-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Campbell ◽  
T. R. Bridle

The philosophy of sludge management in the sewage treatment industry must respond to changes in processing costs and environmental requirements. As overall costs increase, the efficiency of sludge management must be increased either by ugrading the existing scheme or introducing new technology. Both of these approaches are discussed briefly in the paper and it is pointed out that low-temperature conversion of sludge to fuel appears to have considerable potential as a viable new technology.Experimental work carried out at Environment Canada's Wastewater Technology Centre used batch and continuous reactors to evaluate this technology at bench scale. Tests on a number of mixed raw sludges (primary + waste activated) resulted in the following yields: oil, 22–25%, char, 50–60%, noncondensable gas, 10–12%, and reaction water, 5–12%.The impact of a number of sludge treatment alternatives, including the conversion of sludge to oil, are discussed with respect to energy efficiency, flexibility, and public acceptance. The future plans of Environment Canada for the development and demonstration of sludge-to-oil technology are also discussed. Key words: sewage sludge, thermal conversion, energy recovery, sludge management, oil, fuel, char.


1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 415-418
Author(s):  
K. P. Stanyukovich ◽  
V. A. Bronshten

The phenomena accompanying the impact of large meteorites on the surface of the Moon or of the Earth can be examined on the basis of the theory of explosive phenomena if we assume that, instead of an exploding meteorite moving inside the rock, we have an explosive charge (equivalent in energy), situated at a certain distance under the surface.


1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 189-195
Author(s):  
Cesare Guaita ◽  
Roberto Crippa ◽  
Federico Manzini

AbstractA large amount of CO has been detected above many SL9/Jupiter impacts. This gas was never detected before the collision. So, in our opinion, CO was released from a parent compound during the collision. We identify this compound as POM (polyoxymethylene), a formaldehyde (HCHO) polymer that, when suddenly heated, reformes monomeric HCHO. At temperatures higher than 1200°K HCHO cannot exist in molecular form and the most probable result of its decomposition is the formation of CO. At lower temperatures, HCHO can react with NH3 and/or HCN to form high UV-absorbing polymeric material. In our opinion, this kind of material has also to be taken in to account to explain the complex evolution of some SL9 impacts that we observed in CCD images taken with a blue filter.


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