The United States is currently on pace to fall well short of its promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26–28%, relative to 2005, by 2025, under the UN Framework and Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement, even if President Trump did not eliminate most Obama-era climate regulations. However, there still exists interest in reducing emissions, especially from some members of Congress, and there are a number of federal policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if Congress (or a new administration in 2021) so chooses. In this paper, we show that a federal economy-wide carbon tax on US carbon dioxide emissions could significantly contribute to the reductions necessary to fulfill the US international climate commitments. Using a detailed multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we predict the carbon price paths that would be necessary to meet the 28% emissions target and show the economic costs of such carbon-pricing policies. We then demonstrate how both the price paths and associated costs change if action is delayed.
Qualification of Soft Costs of the US Federal Guidance When Considering Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in NEPA Reviews