Efficient Markets Hypothesis: A False Prophesy. Black-Scholes-Merton Formula: A Parlor Trick. Risk-Neutral Pricing Models: Severe Malpractices.

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Truc Le
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis

scholarly journals Additive logistic processes in option pricing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Carr ◽  
Lorenzo Torricelli
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Formula One ◽  
Additive Type ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Minimum Price ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Risk Neutral Probabilities ◽  
Security Price

AbstractIn option pricing, it is customary to first specify a stochastic underlying model and then extract valuation equations from it. However, it is possible to reverse this paradigm: starting from an arbitrage-free option valuation formula, one could derive a family of risk-neutral probabilities and a corresponding risk-neutral underlying asset process. In this paper, we start from two simple arbitrage-free valuation equations, inspired by the log-sum-exponential function and an $\ell ^{p}$ ℓ p vector norm. Such expressions lead respectively to logistic and Dagum (or “log-skew-logistic”) risk-neutral distributions for the underlying security price. We proceed to exhibit supporting martingale processes of additive type for underlying securities having as time marginals two such distributions. By construction, these processes produce closed-form valuation equations which are even simpler than those of the Bachelier and Samuelson–Black–Scholes models. Additive logistic processes provide parsimonious and simple option pricing models capturing various important stylised facts at the minimum price of a single market observable input.

scholarly journals Quanto Pricing beyond Black–Scholes

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Holger Fink ◽  
Stefan Mittnik
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Barrier Options ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Double Barrier ◽  
Parameter Stability ◽  
Comprehensive Data ◽  
Black Scholes

Since their introduction, quanto options have steadily gained popularity. Matching Black–Scholes-type pricing models and, more recently, a fat-tailed, normal tempered stable variant have been established. The objective here is to empirically assess the adequacy of quanto-option pricing models. The validation of quanto-pricing models has been a challenge so far, due to the lack of comprehensive data records of exchange-traded quanto transactions. To overcome this, we make use of exchange-traded structured products. After deriving prices for composite options in the existing modeling framework, we propose a new calibration procedure, carry out extensive analyses of parameter stability and assess the goodness of fit for plain vanilla and exotic double-barrier options.

Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall approaches for option premiums and the probability of default estimation based on ARMA models

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Nikolai Berzon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Arma Process ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Black Scholes

The need to address the issue of risk management has given rise to a number of models for estimation the probability of default, as well as a special tool that allows to sell credit risk – a credit default swap (CDS). From the moment it appeared in 1994 until the crisis of 2008, that the CDS market was actively growing, and then sharply contracted. Currently, there is practically no CDS market in emerging economies (including Russia). This article is to improve the existing CDS valuation models by using discrete-time models that allow for more accurate assessment and forecasting of the selected asset dynamics, as well as new option pricing models that take into account the degree of risk acceptance by the option seller. This article is devoted to parametric discrete-time option pricing models that provide more accurate results than the traditional Black-Scholes continuous-time model. Improvement in the quality of assessment is achieved due to three factors: a more detailed consideration of the properties of the time series of the underlying asset (in particular, autocorrelation and heavy tails), the choice of the optimal number of parameters and the use of Value-at-Risk approach. As a result of the study, expressions were obtained for the premiums of European put and call options for a given level of risk under the assumption that the return on the underlying asset follows a stationary ARMA process with normal or Student's errors, as well as an expression for the credit spread under similar assumptions. The simplicity of the ARMA process underlying the model is a compromise between the complexity of model calibration and the quality of describing the dynamics of assets in the stock market. This approach allows to take into account both discreteness in asset pricing and take into account the current structure and the presence of interconnections for the time series of the asset under consideration (as opposed to the Black–Scholes model), which potentially allows better portfolio management in the stock market.

scholarly journals Sorismo en el contexto del geunismo

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Sánchez-Seco López
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Body Politic ◽  
The Body ◽  
The Political ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Economic Philosophy ◽  
The One ◽  
Regulatory Proposals ◽  
Economic Globalisation

En el contexto de una obra mucho más amplia y en ciernes, que propone como único sistema plenamente legítimo aquél cuyo cuerpo político viene constituido por la totalidad de habitantes del planeta, es conveniente traer a colación la filosofía política y económica de George Soros, porque aporta una visión muy diferente a la aplicada por los endiosados economistas que no supieron ver con antelación la Gran Recesión global en la que seguimos inmersos. La relación entre la realidad y el pensamiento es clave en el sorismo, como también lo es la distinción entre los diversos tipos de ciencias. La hipótesis de la eficiencia en los mercados también es cuestionada, junto con el concepto de equilibrio en economía, la incertidumbre y la falibilidad. También se acomete la crítica del fundamentalismo de mercado y a las propuestas regulatorias. Y todo en el contexto de una globalización económica poco política.Within the context of a much wider and developing piece proposing as only fully legitimate system the one the body politic of which is composed of the totality of inhabitants on the planet, it is convenient to bring to us the political and economic philosophy of George Soros for it adds a very different vision to that applied by the deified economists who could not in advance see the global Great Recession in which we keep on living. The relation between reality and thought is key within Sorism, as it is the distinction amongst the several kinds of sciences. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is also put into question side by side with the concept of equilibrium in Economics, uncertainty, and fallibility. The critique of market fundamentalism is also implemented as well as the regulatory proposals. And all of it taking place within the context of a scarcely political but very economic globalisation.

scholarly journals FRACTAL MARKETS HYPOTHESIS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: SCALING, INVESTMENT HORIZONS AND LIQUIDITY

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250065 ◽  
Author(s):  
LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Heterogenous Agents ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Processes

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

scholarly journals Risk‐neutral moment‐based estimation of affine option pricing models

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 1007-1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Feunou ◽  
Cédric Okou
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Risk Neutral

scholarly journals Empirical Performance of Black-Scholes and GARCH Option Pricing Models during Turbulent Times: The Indian Evidence

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Aparna Bhat ◽  
Kirti Arekar
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Currency Options ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Pricing Options ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Option Pricing Model

Exchange-traded currency options are a recent innovation in the Indian financial market and their pricing is as yet unexplored. The objective of this research paper is to empirically compare the pricing performance of two well-known option pricing models – the Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Model (BSM) and Duan’s NGARCH option pricing model – for pricing exchange-traded currency options on the US dollar-Indian rupee during a recent turbulent period. The BSM is known to systematically misprice options on the same underlying asset but with different strike prices and maturities resulting in the phenomenon of the ‘volatility smile’. This bias of the BSM results from its assumption of a constant volatility over the option’s life. The NGARCH option pricing model developed by Duan is an attempt to incorporate time-varying volatility in pricing options. It is a deterministic volatility model which has no closed-form solution and therefore requires numerical techniques for evaluation. In this paper we have compared the pricing performance and examined the pricing bias of both models during a recent period of volatility in the Indian foreign exchange market. Contrary to our expectations the pricing performance of the more sophisticated NGARCH pricing model is inferior to that of the relatively simple BSM model. However orthogonality tests demonstrate that the NGARCH model is free of the strike price and maturity biases associated with the BSM. We conclude that the deterministic BSM does a better job of pricing options than the more advanced time-varying volatility model based on GARCH.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of the Black-Scholes- Merton Model and the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 127-140
Author(s):  
Tahmid Tamrin Suki ◽  
ABM Shahadat Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Computer Algebra System ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Affecting Factors ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Merton Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Black Scholes

This paper compares the performance of two different option pricing models, namely, the Black-Scholes-Merton (B-S-M) model and the Heston Stochastic Volatility (H-S-V) model. It is known that the most popular B-S-M Model makes the assumption that volatility of an asset is constant while the H-S-V model considers it to be random. We examine the behavior of both B-S-M and H-S-V formulae with the change of different affecting factors by graphical representations and hence assimilate them. We also compare the behavior of some of the Greeks computed by both of these models with changing stock prices and hence constitute 3D plots of these Greeks. All the numerical computations and graphical illustrations are generated by a powerful Computer Algebra System (CAS), MATLAB. GANIT J. Bangladesh Math. Soc.Vol. 39 (2019) 127-140

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document