scholarly journals Okun's Law and Long Term Co-Integration Analysis for OECD Countries (1987-2012)

Author(s):  
Bilal Kargi
2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Kargı

Even though, there are so many so long discussions on the relation between population increase and economic growth, today, general opinion tends to believe that there is a direct relation between population increase and economic growth. This opinion is supported by some empirical studies. Despite an economical growth caused by directly with population growth, it is known that there is a reverse relation between unemployment and growth known as Okun’s Law. This relation, suggesting that every 1 point decrease in unemployment induces a 3 point increase in growth, is tested for many countries. In this study, this hypothesis of Okun is examined and it is found to be true for selected 23 countries, even with the difference in coefficients. At the same time, long term relation between growth and unemployment is tested with the use of time series analysis and long term relation is found for 14 countries. Additionally, tests done for all 34 OECD countries showed that reversed relation between unemployment and growth is valid and they are co-integrated in long run. In this study, countries are categorized according to growth rate as “low”, “normal” and “high” and a consistent unemployment rate for countries with high growth rate could not be seen. In the case of countries with lowest growth rate, generalization that they have quite high unemployment rate can be made.


2015 ◽  
pp. 5-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Vakulenko ◽  
E. Gurvich

The authors estimate the short-term and long-term relationship GDP- unemployment (employment). These are the first reliable and robust confirmations of Okun’s law validity for Russia. It has been shown that the reaction of unemployment to output decline is much stronger than the response to output growth of the same size. Cross-country comparisons give evidence that Okun’s coefficient for Russia is slightly inferior to the same indicator for most developed countries, but is similar to coefficients found for other emerging markets.


2019 ◽  
Vol 78 ◽  
pp. 98-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça ◽  
Diego S.P. de Oliveira

Author(s):  
Balázs Égert ◽  
Peter Gal

This chapter describes and discusses a new supply-side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment, and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the chapter finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the five- to ten-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materializes at a shorter horizon.


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