Asset-Class Risk and the Downward Slope in Distant Forward Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Dubofsky ◽  
Christopher Todd Stivers
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Downward Slope

Getting More from Less in Defined Benefit Plans

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W. Wallick ◽  
Daniel B. Berkowitz ◽  
Andrew S. Clarke ◽  
Kevin J. DiCiurcio ◽  
Kimberly A. Stockton
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Defined Benefit Pension Plan ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Defined Benefit Plans ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Reduced Costs

As global interest rates hover near historic lows, defined benefit pension plan sponsors must grapple with the prospect of lower investment returns. We examine three levers that can enhance portfolio outcomes in a low-return world: increased contributions; reduced investment costs; and increased portfolio risk. We use portfolio simulations based on a stochastic asset class forecasting model to evaluate each lever according to two criteria: the magnitude of impact and the certainty that this impact will be realized. We show that increased contributions have the greatest and most certain impact. Reduced costs have a more modest, but equally certain impact. Increased risk can deliver a significant impact, but with the least certainty.

scholarly journals Infrastructure Indices: Comparative Analysis of Performance, Risk and Representation of Global Listed Proxies

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitar Lambrev
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Market Beta ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Analysis Of Performance

Abstract Faced with historically low interest rates, investors are looking further into illiquid assets such as infrastructure in search of alternative sources of income, better diversification and a long-term investment perspective. This paper analyzes the key performance and risk characteristics of the EDHECinfra global unlisted infrastructure equity index when compared to the main global listed infrastructure indices during the 2001-2018 period. The descriptive statistics method is applied to determine the representation of the benchmarks commonly used by investors considering infrastructure investments. For the purpose of the market beta analysis, the MSCI World index is also used as a global equities proxy in a linear regression model. Listed infrastructure is often considered as an income-yielding and defensive equity strategy that provides a liquid proxy for alternative assets (e.g., infrastructure). However, the paper results indicate that the net effect of investing in listed infrastructure remains questionable, even unknown. Recent empirical findings demonstrate divergent stands on benchmarking infrastructure. The high correlation of the main listed infrastructure indices with the broad equity index MSCI World and the inconsistency of research results thus far suggest that infrastructure is an ill-defined investment category within the listed infrastructure space with lacking reliable and useful benchmarking. The commonly used and far-reaching classification of companies with broad industrial nature and business activities that are less relevant to infrastructure may affect the overall representation of the legitimate characteristics of the infrastructure asset class amid the growing enthusiasm among investors.

CEE's own risks pose a greater threat than China

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Trade And Financial Linkages ◽  
Better Than

Subject CEE markets' resilience to China-induced sell-off. Significance While investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs) has deteriorated further because of mounting concerns about China's economy and financial markets, the currencies and government bonds of the main Central-East European (CEE) economies have proved remarkably resilient. Even equity markets, which have suffered sharp falls across the EM asset class, have fared better than in other regions, with Polish, Hungarian and Czech stocks falling by 5.0-6.0% in dollar terms in August, compared with 10.0% and 9.5% for emerging Asian and Latin American shares, respectively. CEE markets' resilience stems from the region's negligible trade and financial linkages to China, relatively strong fundamentals and the sentiment-boosting effects of the ECB's programme of quantitative easing (QE). Impacts EMs' significantly stronger fundamentals make comparisons between the current China-led sell-off and earlier crises in the 1990s misleading. There will continue to be a strong correlation between CEE financial markets and price action in the euro-area. The ECB's full-blown QE should help mitigate the adverse effects of a rise in US interest rates. Very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian government debt poses a risk should sentiment towards EMs deteriorate more sharply.

scholarly journals The influence of central bank monetary policy announcements on cryptocurrency return volatility

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaen Corbet ◽  
Grace McHugh ◽  
Andrew Meegan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
International Currencies ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
International Monetary Policy

The emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 has received considerable attention surrounding the validity of cryptocurrencies as a viable and, in some jurisdictions, a legal currency alternative. Despite widespread concern that these cryptocurrencies are fostering the environment within which a substantial bubble can occur, it is important to analyze whether these new assets are behaving similarly to major international currencies. This paper investigates the effects of international monetary policy changes on bitcoin returns using a GARCH (1.1) estimation model. The results indicate that monetary policy decisions based on interest rates taken by the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States significantly impact upon bitcoin returns. After controlling for international effects, we find significant evidence of volatility effects driven by United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Japanese quantitative easing announcements. These results show that, despite its nature and ideals, bitcoin seems to be subject to the same economic factors as traditional fiat currencies, and is not entirely unaffected by government policies. This result has implications for investors using bitcoin as a hedging or diversification tool. In addition, we contribute to the existing debate regarding the classification of bitcoin as an asset class, by illustrating that bitcoin volatility exhibits various reactions that bear resemblance to both currency pairs and store-of-value assets.

scholarly journals THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND THEIR TYPES

2015 ◽  
pp. 271-277
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasina
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
International Financial Crises ◽  
Markets And Institutions ◽  
Asset Class

In this study the author reveals the essence of the financial crisis and examines the various types of financial crises. By studying the literature on financial crises, the author of the studypays attention to three specific areas: the definition of the crisis, the manifestations of the crisis and the types of financial crises. The article notes that the term "financial crisis" is widely used in a variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose most of their nominal value, but it does not necessarily lead to changes in the real economy. The financial crisis is a crisis that is systematically covers financial markets and institutions of the financial sector, international finance, money circulation and credit, state, municipal and corporate finance. Financial crises have common elements, but they come in different forms. Financial crises are generally multidimensional events and are difficult to characterize using a single indicator. The author considers the following types of financial crises: a banking crisis, a currency crisis, speculative bubbles and international financial crises. Banking crisis is a situation when a bank faces with a sudden outflow of depositors' funds. A currency crisis is a situation when the exchange rate, which is pegged to the currency of another country, is on the verge of collapse, causing committed speculation. A speculative bubble is in the case of large, sustainable overpricing of any asset class. Financial crises are reflected in a sharp rise in interest rates, a collapse in exchange rates, massive withdrawal of deposits from banks and credit crunch, currency and debt crisis.

Hunt for yield will boost global farmland demand

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Asset Class

Subject Farmland as an investment asset class. Significance Low interest rates and increased political instability are driving investors to seek yield and diversification. In past decades, farmland has provided high returns, while reducing portfolio volatility. However, farmland investments are exposed to high political risks in both advanced and developing countries. Impacts Demand from large capital pools may result in formation of farmland investment vehicles, including listed companies. Scarcity and high prices in advanced economies will lead investors to seek opportunities in EMs, where 'land nationalism' will emerge. Conflicts among corporate landholders, farmers and indigenous groups will sharpen, prompting further government intervention and regulation.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

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