Are Commodity Price Shocks Important? A Bayesian Estimation of a DSGE Model for Russia

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oxana Malakhovskaya ◽  
Alexey Minabutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks

Rebel Primary Commodity Markets, Price Shocks, and Supplier Victimization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L Estancona
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Supplier Relationships ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Reputational Costs ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Do So

Abstract Rebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.

scholarly journals Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atanu Ghoshray ◽  
Mohitosh Kejriwal ◽  
Mark Wohar
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Trend Breaks

AbstractThis paper empirically examines the time series behavior of primary commodity prices relative to manufactures with reference to the nature of their underlying trends and the persistence of shocks driving the price processes. The direction and magnitude of the trends are assessed employing a set of econometric techniques that is robust to the nature of persistence in the commodity price shocks, thereby obviating the need for unit root pretesting. Specifically, the methods allow consistent estimation of the number and location of structural breaks in the trend function as well as facilitate the distinction between trend breaks and pure level shifts. Further, a new set of powerful unit root tests is applied to determine whether the underlying commodity price series can be characterized as difference or trend stationary processes. These tests treat breaks under the unit root null and the trend stationary alternative in a symmetric fashion thereby alleviating the procedures from spurious rejection problems and low power issues that plague most existing procedures. Relative to the extant literature, we find more evidence in favor of trend stationarity suggesting that real commodity price shocks are primarily of a transitory nature. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of our results.

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