On Regret Theory, and Framing Anomalies in the Net-Present-Value and the Mean-Variance Models.

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. I. Nwogugu
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Regret Theory ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Variance

Energy, Financial, and Environmental Investigation of a Direct Steam Production Power Plant Driven by Linear Fresnel Solar Reflectors

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mokhtar Ghodbane ◽  
Evangelos Bellos ◽  
Zafar Said ◽  
Boussad Boumeddane ◽  
Abderrahmane Khechekhouche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Solar Power Plant ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Optical Efficiency ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Water Steam ◽  
Produce Water ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The objective of this paper is the investigation of the annual performance of a solar power plant with linear Fresnel reflectors in the El-Oued region at Algeria. The solar collectors produce water steam that feeds a turbine to produce electricity. The System Advisor Model (sam) tool is used for simulation. The mean net daily electricity production rate from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm is 48 MWe, and the respective annual production is 210,336 MWh/year. The mean daily optical efficiency of the solar field was close to 52%, while the mean thermal efficiency was about 39%. The net daily cycle efficiency is found to be 24%. The net capital cost of the examined system is $393 million, and the developer net present value is $47 million; the investor net present value is $15 million, the entire period of capital recovery is 11 years, and the levelized cost of electricity is 0.0382 $/kWh. The solar power plant leads to the yearly avoidance of 420,672 tons carbon dioxide emissions (operational cost savings of $6.1 million). Based on the obtained results, linear Fresnel reflectors can be used to achieve satisfying, energetic, financial, and environmental performance that can lead to sustainability.

Optimal forest management under financial risk aversion with discounted Markov decision process models

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (7) ◽  
pp. 802-809
Author(s):  
Mo Zhou ◽  
Joseph Buongiorno
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Income Smoothing ◽  
Variance Analysis ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Financial Returns ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Mean Variance

The common assumption of risk neutrality in forest decision making is generally inadequate because the stakeholders tend to be averse to fluctuations in the return criteria. In Markov decision processes (MDPs) of forest management, risk aversion and standard mean-variance analysis can be readily dealt with if the criteria are undiscounted expected values. However, with discounted criteria such as the fundamental net present value of financial returns, the classic mean-variance optimization is numerically intractable. In lieu of this, this paper (i) presents a linear-programming method to calculate the variance of discounted criteria conditional on any specific policy and (ii) adopts, as an alternative to the variance measure of risk, the “discount normalized variance” (DNV), an economically meaningful criterion consistent with income-smoothing behavior. The DNV is then used in procedures analogous to mean-variance analysis and certainty-equivalent optimization tractable by quadratic programming. The methods are applied to the management of uneven-aged, mixed-species forests in the southern United States. The results document the trade-off between the expected net present value and risk of financial returns, as well as the consequences for selected ecological criteria.

Investing in Methane Digesters on Pennsylvania Dairy Farms: Implications of Scale Economies and Environmental Programs

2008 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. Leuer ◽  
Jeffrey Hyde ◽  
Tom L. Richard
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Carbon Credits ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Anaerobic Digesters ◽  
Environmental Programs ◽  
Capital Budget ◽  
Net Metering ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Large Farms

A stochastic capital budget was used to analyze the effect of net metering policies and carbon credits on profitability of anaerobic digesters on dairy farms in Pennsylvania. We analyzed three different farm sizes—500, 1, 000, and 2,000 cows—and considered the addition of a solids separator to the project. Results indicate that net metering policies and carbon credits increase the expected net present value (NPV) of digesters. Moreover, the addition of a solids separator further increases the mean NPV of the venture. In general, the technology is profitable only for very large farms (1, 000+ cows) that use the separated solids as bedding material.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Use of Simulated Annealing to Optimize Thinning Rates for Single Even-Aged Stands

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Moriguchi ◽  
Tatsuhito Ueki ◽  
Masashi Saito
Keyword(s):  
Simulated Annealing ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Reliable Method ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Random Search ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Thinning Rate ◽  
Best Parameters

We evaluated the potential of simulated annealing as a reliable method for optimizing thinning rates for single even-aged stands. Four types of yield models were used as benchmark models to examine the algorithm’s versatility. Thinning rate, which was constrained to 0–50% every 5 years at stand ages of 10–45 years, was optimized to maximize the net present value for one fixed rotation term (50 years). The best parameters for the simulated annealing were chosen from 113patterns, using the mean of the net present value from 39 runs to ensure the best performance. We compared the solutions with those from coarse full enumeration to evaluate the method’s reliability and with 39 runs of random search to evaluate its efficiency. In contrast to random search, the best run of simulated annealing for each of the four yield models resulted in a better solution than coarse full enumeration. However, variations in the objective function for two yield models obtained with simulated annealing were significantly larger than those of random search. In conclusion, simulated annealing with optimized parameters is more efficient for optimizing thinning rates than random search. However, it is necessary to execute multiple runs to obtain reliable solutions.

Nuclear Power and Global Warming: A First Cost-Benefit Calculation

1994 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hope
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Obvious Benefit ◽  
The Mean

This paper investigates the costs and benefits of a modest nuclear power programme in the European Union to combat the threat of global warming. The nuclear programme is found to bring a double benefit. The first and more obvious benefit is that the economic impacts of global warming are reduced. The second benefit is counter-intuitive; most people would expect it to be a cost. It comes from the stimulus to the economy from the construction of the nuclear plant, which, with the recycling of carbon tax revenues, offsets its construction and operating costs, and may even cause consumers' expenditure to rise. Calculations in this paper show that over the period to 2100 the mean net present value of the first benefit is 6 billion European Currency Units (ECU; 1 ECU is about $1), while the second benefit has a mean net present value of 158 billion ECU. However both benefits, particularly the second, are still very uncertain, to the extent that even their sign is not yet definitely established.

scholarly journals Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Warren ◽  
C. Hope ◽  
D. E. H. J. Gernaat ◽  
D. P. Van Vuuren ◽  
K. Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Mean

AbstractWe quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.

scholarly journals KAJIAN KELAYAKAN USAHA PENGOLAHAN KERUPUK IKAN PIPIH DI KABUPATEN BARITO KUALA KALIMANTAN SELATAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Wahdah Wahdah ◽  
Emmy Sri Mahreda ◽  
Emmy Lilimantik
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
The Other ◽  
Market Opportunity ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Return Of Investment ◽  
The Mean

This research aimed to (1) analyze the market opportunity of the giant featherback crackers processing business in Barito Kuala Regency; (2) analyze the profit of the giant featherback crackers processing business in Barito Kuala Regency; and (3) analyze the investment feasibility of the giant featherback crackers processing business in Barito Kuala Regency.     This research was carried out in Bahalayung and Lapasan Villages, Bakumpai District, Barito Kuala Regency, South Kalimantan, with the objects of the giant featherback crackers processors. The data that was collected was the data that directly originated from results of observation in the location of the research, and the other supporting data was related to the object of the research. Results of the research showed that the demand of the giant featherback crackers in Barito Kuala Regency was about 36 ton per the year, with the mean supply of the giant featherback crackers was about 6 ton per the year, so that the giant featherback crackers processing business still owned the market opportunity as many as 30 tons per the year. The giant featherback crackers processing business could give the profit about Rp.6,893,000 - Rp.12,930,000 per the year or about Rp.19,147 - Rp.21,550 per kg with the production about 360 - 600 kg.  The giant featherback crackers processing business in Barito Kuala Regency was profitable and feasible to be carried on, considering the Net Present Value was positive and the Net BCR that more than one, as well as the business was still beneficial was limited by the interest did not reach 137% with the period of the return of investment till 0.71 years (faster than the project period during five years).

ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN KECAP ANEKA GUNA DI KOTA LANGSA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jamil ◽  
Januari Frizki Bella
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate

Adapun tujuan dari Penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui kelayakan usaha industri pengolahan kecap Aneka Guna apabila dilihat dari segi kelayakan finansial. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode studi kasus. Lokasi penelitian yaitu di Kota Langsa dengan pertimbangan bahwa lokasi tersebut merupakan daerah yang terdapat industri pengolahan kecap asin dan mudah di jangkau oleh penulis. Waktu penelitian dilaksanakan pada Bulan Juni - Oktober 2014. Tenaga kerja yang digunakan berjumlah 27 orang, 20 tenaga kerja pria dan 7 orang tenaga kerja wanita. Jumlah penggunaan tenaga kerja selama 5 tahun sebesar 3759 HKP. Total biaya produksi yang dikeluarkan oleh pengusaha dalam usaha pembuatan kecap didaerah penelitian selama 5 tahun adalah Rp. 2.076.988.000,-. Pendapatan kotor yang diperoleh pengusaha sebesar Rp. 8.199.690.000,- dan pendapan bersih yang diperoleh sebesar Rp. 6.122.702.000,-                 Kota Langsa hanya memiliki 1 pengusaha pengolahan kecap asin dan dijadikan sebagai pengusaha sampel yaitu usaha industri pengolahan kecap asin Aneka Guna. Hasil perhitungan di peroleh Net Present Value (NPV) sebesar Rp. 263.281.290 (lebih besar dari nol), sedangkan Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sebesar 84% lebih besar dari tingkat bunga yang berlaku (D.F. = 18%), sedangkan Net B/C Ratio sebesar 3,27 (lebih dari pada 1) dan Pay Back Priod (PBP) 1 Tahun 6 Bulan (lebih kecil dari umur ekonomis).  

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