How Derivatives and Risk Models Really Work: Sociological Pricing and the Role of Co-Ordination

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Rebonato
Keyword(s):  
Risk Models

scholarly journals Behavioral and neurodevelopmental precursors to binge-type eating disorders: support for the role of negative valence systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (14) ◽  
pp. 2921-2936 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Vannucci ◽  
E. E. Nelson ◽  
D. M. Bongiorno ◽  
D. S. Pine ◽  
J. A. Yanovski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eating Disorders ◽  
Developmental Trajectory ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Research Domain Criteria ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Eating Disorder Risk ◽  
Negative Valence ◽  
Research Domain

Background.Pediatric loss-of-control (LOC) eating is a robust behavioral precursor to binge-type eating disorders. Elucidating precursors to LOC eating and binge-type eating disorders may refine developmental risk models of eating disorders and inform interventions.Method.We review evidence within constructs of the Negative Valence Systems (NVS) domain, as specified by the Research Domain Criteria framework. Based on published studies, we propose an integrated NVS model of binge-type eating-disorder risk.Results.Data implicate altered corticolimbic functioning, neuroendocrine dysregulation, and self-reported negative affect as possible risk factors. However, neuroimaging and physiological data in children and adolescents are sparse, and most prospective studies are limited to self-report measures.Conclusions.We discuss a broad NVS framework for conceptualizing early risk for binge-type eating disorders. Future neural and behavioral research on the developmental trajectory of LOC and binge-type eating disorders is required.

The effect of radiographic emphysema in assessing lung cancer risk

Thorax ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (9) ◽  
pp. 858-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick C Yong ◽  
Keith Sigel ◽  
Juan Pablo de-Torres ◽  
Grace Mhango ◽  
Minal Kale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
Lung Cancer Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Lung Cancer Diagnosis ◽  
National Lung Screening Trial ◽  
Lung Screening

PurposeLung cancer risk models optimise screening by identifying subjects at highest risk, but none of them consider emphysema, a risk factor identifiable on baseline screen. Subjects with a negative baseline low-dose CT (LDCT) screen are at lower risk for subsequent diagnosis and may benefit from risk stratification prior to additional screening, thus we investigated the role of radiographic emphysema as an additional predictor of lung cancer diagnosis in participants with negative baseline LDCT screens of the National Lung Screening Trial.MethodsOur cohorts consist of participants with a negative baseline (T0) LDCT screen (n=16 624) and participants who subsequently had a negative 1-year follow-up (T1) screen (n=14 530). Lung cancer risk scores were calculated using the Bach, PLCOm2012 and Liverpool Lung Project models. Risk of incident lung cancer diagnosis at the end of the study and number screened per incident lung cancer were compared between participants with and without radiographic emphysema.ResultsRadiographic emphysema was independently associated with nearly double the hazard of lung cancer diagnosis at both the second (T1) and third (T2) annual LDCT in all three risk models (HR range 1.9–2.0, p<0.001 for all comparisons). The number screened per incident lung cancer was considerably lower in participants with radiographic emphysema (62 vs 28 at T1 and 91 vs 40 at T2).ConclusionRadiographic emphysema is an independent predictor of lung cancer diagnosis and may help guide decisions surrounding further screening for eligible patients.

scholarly journals Informing antimicrobial management in the context of COVID-19: understanding the longitudinal dynamics of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien K. Ming ◽  
Ashleigh C. Myall ◽  
Bernarnd Hernandez ◽  
Andrea Y. Weiße ◽  
Robert L. Peach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admission ◽  
C Reactive Protein ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Longitudinal Dynamics ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Related Symptom ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Antimicrobial Management ◽  
Data Points

Abstract  Background To characterise the longitudinal dynamics of C-reactive protein (CRP) and Procalcitonin (PCT) in a cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and support antimicrobial decision-making. Methods Longitudinal CRP and PCT concentrations and trajectories of 237 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 were modelled. The dataset comprised of 2,021 data points for CRP and 284 points for PCT. Pairwise comparisons were performed between: (i) those with or without significant bacterial growth from cultures, and (ii) those who survived or died in hospital. Results CRP concentrations were higher over time in COVID-19 patients with positive microbiology (day 9: 236 vs 123 mg/L, p < 0.0001) and in those who died (day 8: 226 vs 152 mg/L, p < 0.0001) but only after day 7 of COVID-related symptom onset. Failure for CRP to reduce in the first week of hospital admission was associated with significantly higher odds of death. PCT concentrations were higher in patients with COVID-19 and positive microbiology or in those who died, although these differences were not statistically significant. Conclusions Both the absolute CRP concentration and the trajectory during the first week of hospital admission are important factors predicting microbiology culture positivity and outcome in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Further work is needed to describe the role of PCT for co-infection. Understanding relationships of these biomarkers can support development of risk models and inform optimal antimicrobial strategies.

The Role of Volatility Shocks and Rare Events in Long-Run Risk Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Branger ◽  
Paulo Rodrigues ◽  
Christian Schlag
Keyword(s):  
Rare Events ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Risk

Role of echocardiography in managing acute pulmonary embolism

Heart ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 (23) ◽  
pp. 1785-1792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noura M Dabbouseh ◽  
Jayshil J Patel ◽  
Paul Anthony Bergl
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Prospective Studies ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Prognostic Information ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Acute Pe

The role of echocardiography in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remains incompletely defined. Echocardiography cannot reliably diagnose acute PE, and it does not improve prognostication of patients with low-risk acute PE who lack other clinical features of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Echocardiography, however, may yield additional prognostic information in higher risk patients and can aid in distinguishing acute from chronic RV dysfunction. Specific echocardiographic markers of RV dysfunction have the potential to enhance prognostication beyond existing risk models. Until these markers are subjected to rigorous prospective studies, the therapeutic utility and economic value of echocardiography in acute PE are uncertain.

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