The Hot Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Baseball

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett S. Green ◽  
Jeffrey Zwiebel
Keyword(s):  
Hot Hand

scholarly journals A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the ‘hot shoe’ in football

2021 ◽  
pp. 1471082X2110080
Author(s):  
Marius Ötting ◽  
Groll Andreas
Keyword(s):  
Markov Models ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Psychology And Economics ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
Penalized Likelihood Approach ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

We propose a penalized likelihood approach in hidden Markov models (HMMs) to perform automated variable selection. To account for a potential large number of covariates, which also may be substantially correlated, we consider the elastic net penalty containing LASSO and ridge as special cases. By quadratically approximating the non-differentiable penalty, we ensure that the likelihood can be maximized numerically. The feasibility of our approach is assessed in simulation experiments. As a case study, we examine the ‘hot hand’ effect, whose existence is highly debated in different fields, such as psychology and economics. In the present work, we investigate a potential ‘hot shoe’ effect for the performance of penalty takers in (association) football, where the (latent) states of the HMM serve for the underlying form of a player.

The “hot hand” reconsidered: A meta-analytic approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simcha Avugos ◽  
Jörn Köppen ◽  
Uwe Czienskowski ◽  
Markus Raab ◽  
Michael Bar-Eli
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Approach ◽  
Hot Hand

Misses in “Hot Hand” Research

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 401-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Arkes
Keyword(s):  
Hot Hand
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