Can Long-Run Risks Explain Commodity Excess Risk Premium Puzzle?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Ghoddusi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Excess Risk ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Premium Puzzle ◽  
Long Run Risks

Economic Risk Premia in the Fixed-Income Markets: The Intraday Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 1927-1950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierluigi Balduzzi ◽  
Fabio Moneta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bond Risk ◽  
Long Run Risks

We use high-frequency data to precisely estimate bond price reactions to macroeconomic announcements and the associated compensation for macro risks. We find evidence of a single factor summarizing the reaction of bond prices to different announcements. Before the financial crisis, the factor risk premium is substantial, significant, and mainly earned before announcement releases. After the crisis, the stock–bond covariance becomes negative and the preannouncement factor risk premium becomes insignificant. Our empirical results are consistent with information leakages that take place ahead of announcement releases and with the implications of a long-run risks model of bond risk premia.

scholarly journals Predictability and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Challenge for Asset Pricing Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Schlag ◽  
Michael Semenischev ◽  
Julian Thimme
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Long Run Risks ◽  
Macro Finance

Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected returns by sorting stocks based on the sensitivity of expected returns to these quantities. Models with only one uncertainty-related state variable, like the habit model or the long-run risks model, cannot pass this test. However, even extensions with more state variables mostly fail. We derive conditions under which models would be able to produce expected return patterns in line with the data and discuss various examples. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

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