scholarly journals Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joscha Beckmann ◽  
Ansgar Hubertus Belke ◽  
Michael Kuehl
2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (38) ◽  
pp. 4037-4055
Author(s):  
Joscha Beckmann ◽  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Michael Kühl

Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (PNEA) ◽  
pp. 485-507
Author(s):  
Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado ◽  
Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez ◽  
Luis Nelson Romero

This paper examines the “day-of-the-week” anomaly in the foreign exchange market of six major Latin American countries’ currencies: (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru), all with respect to the United States’ dollar. The returns of daily exchange rates are stationary, so we use linear regressions combined with GARCH, TARCH and EGARCH models to explore the presence of the “day-of-the-week” anomaly. The results confirm the presence of “abnormal” effects in some of the currencies and in some days of the week, particularly on Fridays and Mondays. Moreover, volatility in exchange rates shows clustering behavior, as well as leverage effects, which are carefully modelled in our analysis. This paper contributes to the literature by studying the “day-of-the-week” effects in currency exchange rate markets, a clear innovation with respect to the typical stock market analysis. The results reported are useful for foreign exchange market traders, currency exposure management decision makers, monetary authorities, and financial policy designers in the countries included in the study. Indeed, the results suggest the presence of a typical behavior of the exchange rate of all the currencies included in the sample.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaodan Huang ◽  
Stephen Neun

This study empirically examines the effectiveness of Fed intervention on the USD/DM exchange market using an event study approach. The event window is defined as 4 (8) days prior/post an intervention. Based on the empirical analysis, the results show that when the Fed follows an "against the wind" policy, exchange rate movements are smoothed and may switch direction. The results are robust and hold for different event window definitions and sample ranges. To test whether the results are due to the exchange rate movement itself, we conduct a simple test using customer trades by the Fed. The results do not exhibit a systematic pattern. We also find that a joint intervention has a stronger impact on the exchange rate level when the Fed buys US dollars. The policy implication of our findings is that intervention in foreign exchange markets on the part of the Fed to impact the value of the US dollar is a viable policy option.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-32
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad

In this paper, the triangular relationship of money, price, and foreign exchange in a causality context are studied. It is concluded that regulating the exchange rate by volume of liquidity in a period of less than a year is not possible, but in annual and biannual analyses we can regulate the exchange rate through controlling the liquidity. In other words, in the long run, the exchange rate is affected by liquidity and price level, but in the short run, the price level has only temporary effects on the exchange rate. The results of the study show that: liquidity affects the exchange rate in the long run; price affects the liquidity in the long run; in the long run, liquidity and exchange rate affect prices.  Our results show that injection of foreign exchange into the parallel exchange market with different lags has little effects with different directions on the exchange rate. The same result is true for the relationship between liquidity and dollar rate. In other words, in spite of the long run relationship between exchange rate and liquidity, we cannot justify this relationship in the short run. The same is true with the balance of payments position and exchange rate in the short run. By simulating the relationship between injecting (selling) foreign exchange in the parallel exchange market, liquidity and the cumulative balance of payments all with exchange rate, we can conclude that in the short run, regulating exchange rate by instruments such as selling exchange in the parallel market or controlling the liquidity is not possible, but in the long run, conducting foreign exchange sale policy and controlling the liquidity and the balance of payments position can control the exchange market.


Revizor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (91-92) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Milorad Stamenović ◽  
Sanja Jelisavac-Trošić

This paper defines the participants in the international foreign exchange market and the influence of natural, political, and economic factors on the movement of the exchange rate, and analysis of circumstances that may contribute to the change of the exchange rate. The paper aims to present the analysis of the exchange rate through macroeconomic phenomena and define the factors influencing the change in the exchange rate and the impact on the work of participants in that process. As risk management measures can prevent the influence of significant factors defined in the paper, measures, and types of risk exposure are determined.


Author(s):  
E. Adedeji Kayode ◽  
O. Apinran Martins ◽  
I. Awoniyi Bisola

The essential roles played by exchange rate on general macroeconomic stability has attracted the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to intervene in the foreign exchange market, in order to smoothen exchange rate volatility, among other goals. The study to examine the impact of foreign exchange market intervention on stability of exchange rate in Nigeria with a monthly time series data from 2000M1 to 2020M12. The research employs the use of Autoregressive Distributive Lag approach (ARDL) of analysis. The result indicates that the currency interventions policy of the CBN in Nigeria is effective and exerts significant impact on the exchange rate stability of Naira in both in the short and long-run within the period under investigation. We, therefor, recommend that the monetary authority should continue to employ the usage of stock of foreign reserves in supporting the exchange rate by increasing funding of the operations in foreign exchange market.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-73
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad

In this paper, the triangular relationship between money, price, and foreign exchange are studied. It is concluded that regulating the exchange rate by volume of liquidity in a period of less than a year is not possible, but in annual and biannual analyses, we can regulate the exchange rate through controlling the liquidity. In other words, in the long run, the exchange rate is affected by liquidity and price level, but in the short run, the price level has only temporary effects on the exchange rate. The results of the study show that: Liquidity affects the exchange rate in the long run Prices affect the liquidity in the long run In the long run, liquidity and exchange rate affect prices Our results show that injection of foreign exchange into the parallel exchange market with different lags has little effects with different directions on the exchange rate. The same result is true for the relationship between liquidity and dollar rate. In other words, in spite of the long run relationship between exchange rate and liquidity, we cannot justify this relationship in the short run. The same is true with the balance of payments position and exchange rate in the short run. By simulating the relationship between injecting (selling) foreign exchange in the parallel exchange market, liquidity and the cumulative balance of payments all with exchange rate, we can conclude that in the short run, regulating exchange rate by instruments such as selling exchange in the parallel market or controlling the liquidity is not possible, but in the long run, conducting foreign exchange sale policy and controlling the liquidity and the balance of payments position can control the exchange market.


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