Prediction Markets with Experts Concerned in Post-Market Information Usage: Experimental Evidence on Collective Intelligence

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henner Gimpel ◽  
Florian Teschner
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Market Information ◽  
Information Usage ◽  
Post Market

Collective Intelligence Heuristic: An Experimental Evidence

2016 ◽  
pp. 42-54
Author(s):  
Federica Stefanelli ◽  
Enrico Imbimbo ◽  
Franco Bagnoli ◽  
Andrea Guazzini
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Collective Intelligence

scholarly journals The Wisdom of the Market: Using Human Factors to Design Prediction Markets for Collective Intelligence

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 1471-1475
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Barberis Canonico ◽  
Christopher Flathmann ◽  
Nathan McNeese
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Game Theory ◽  
Human Factors ◽  
Cognitive Science ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Human Intelligence ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
New Model ◽  
Large Groups

There is an ever-growing literature on the power of prediction markets to harness “the wisdom of the crowd” from large groups of people. However, traditional prediction markets are not designed in a human-centered way, often restricting their own potential. This creates the opportunity to implement a cognitive science perspective on how to enhance the collective intelligence of the participants. Thus, we propose a new model for prediction markets that integrates human factors, cognitive science, game theory and machine learning to maximize collective intelligence. We do this by first identifying the connections between prediction markets and collective intelligence, to then use human factors techniques to analyze our design, culminating in the practical ways with which our design enables artificial intelligence to complement human intelligence.

scholarly journals Collective Problem-Solving: The Role of Self-Efficacy, Skill, and Prior Knowledge

10.28945/2319 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 159-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorit Geifman ◽  
Daphne R Raban
Keyword(s):  
Problem Solving ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Ability To Act ◽  
Individual Knowledge ◽  
Personal Performance ◽  
Individual Self

Self-efficacy is essential to learning but what happens when learning is done as a result of a collective process? What is the role of individual self-efficacy in collective problem solving? This research examines the manifestation of self-efficacy in prediction markets that are configured as collective problem-solving platforms and whether self-efficacy of traders affects the collective outcome. Prediction markets are collective-intelligence platforms that use a financial markets mechanism to combine knowledge and opinions of a group of people. Traders express their opinions or knowledge by buying and selling “stocks” related to questions or events. The collective outcome is derived from the final price of the stocks. Self-efficacy, one’s belief in his or her ability to act in a manner that leads to success, is known to affect personal performance in many domains. To date, its manifestation in computer-mediated collaborative environments and its effect on the collective outcome has not been studied. In a controlled experiment, 632 participants in 47 markets traded a solution to a complex problem, a naïve framing of the knapsack problem. Contrary to earlier research, we find that technical and functional self-efficacy perceptions are indistinguishable, probably due to a focus on outcomes rather than on resources. Further, results demonstrate that prediction markets are an effective collective problem-solving platform that correctly aggregates individual knowledge and is resilient to traders’ self-efficacy.

Wanna bet there will be war? A time-series analysis of prediction markets during the Libya conflict 2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Sebastian Matthias Woerle
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Collective Intelligence ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
The Impact

This paper tests the explanatory power of an online Prediction market on the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi as Libya’s leader during the uprising in 2011. Based on the theory of efficient markets and collective intelligence, it employs a GARCH time-series analysis and an event study of Intrade data to test the impact of events on market performance and trading volume. The market distinguishes sensibly between relevant and irrelevant news for the outcome of the conflict and prices them in at a surprising speed. Some support for short-term anticipative trading and price performance is found. The analyzed market is found to be semi-strong efficient and works as an evaluative tool in international conflict.

How do memory modules differentially contribute to familiarity and recollection?

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olya Hakobyan ◽  
Sen Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Recognition Memory ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Target Article ◽  
Memory Modules ◽  
Familiarity And Recollection ◽  
Memory Contents

Abstract We fully support dissociating the subjective experience from the memory contents in recognition memory, as Bastin et al. posit in the target article. However, having two generic memory modules with qualitatively different functions is not mandatory and is in fact inconsistent with experimental evidence. We propose that quantitative differences in the properties of the memory modules can account for the apparent dissociation of recollection and familiarity along anatomical lines.

Redox Reactions in Lipid Membranes as a Model for Primordial Energy-Conserving Systems

1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 437-442
Author(s):  
Salvatore Di Bernardo ◽  
Romana Fato ◽  
Giorgio Lenaz
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Lipid Membranes ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Redox Reactions ◽  
Living Systems ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
Conservation Of Energy ◽  
Asymmetrical Distribution ◽  
Energy Conserving ◽  
Living Organisms

AbstractOne of the peculiar aspects of living systems is the production and conservation of energy. This aspect is provided by specialized organelles, such as the mitochondria and chloroplasts, in developed living organisms. In primordial systems lacking specialized enzymatic complexes the energy supply was probably bound to the generation and maintenance of an asymmetric distribution of charged molecules in compartmentalized systems. On the basis of experimental evidence, we suggest that lipophilic quinones were involved in the generation of this asymmetrical distribution of charges through vectorial redox reactions across lipid membranes.

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