scholarly journals The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle in Canada and the U.S.: Two Solitudes?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos ◽  
Brady Lavender
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

scholarly journals The Business Cycle And Competition In The U.S. Brewing Industry

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig A. Gallet ◽  
Patricia J. Euzent
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Brewing Industry ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Demand Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; tab-stops: 4.5pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Batang;">Recent game-theoretic models of cartel behavior assess the sustainability of cooperation in the presence of demand fluctuations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Depending on the stochastic assumptions of demand, different outcomes are predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Accordingly, this paper investigates the effects of demand fluctuations on competition in the U.S. brewing industry.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>The results show that competition among brewers is greater during periods associated with significant negative shocks to demand, lower observed demand, lower expected future industry profit, and lower advertising.</span></span></span></p>

The Maquiladora Industry: Recent Downturn And Future Prospects

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Javad Gorjidooz ◽  
Bijan Vasigh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Competition ◽  
Bracero Program ◽  
Major Player ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

The Maquiladora industry was created in the mid-1960 as the United States terminated the Bracero program. The main objective of the Bracero program was to bring in Mexican workers to fulfill U.S. agricultural labor demand. The end of the Bracero program left thousands of unemployed farm workers in Mexican cities bordering the U.S. The Maquiladora programs intent was to subsidize foreign manufacturers that set up plants on the Mexico side of the border to create jobs for the Mexican workers. Mexico allowed plants to temporarily import supplies, parts, machinery, and equipment necessary to produce goods and services in Mexico duty-free as long as the output was exported back to the United States. U.S. firms, as well as other multinational companies, responded enthusiastically to the lure of cheap labor. Mexico experienced high economic growth and become a major player in exporting intra-industry products to the U.S. The NAFTA and other free trade agreements signed by Mexico helped the economic growth of the Maquiladora region. Maquiladora employment increased significantly since the inception of the Maquiladora industry and Maquiladora exports now account for half of Mexicos total exports. The Maquiladora industry is U.S.-demand driven since most of Mexicos Maquiladora production is destined for the U.S. market. The recent recession in the U.S. took a heavy toll on Mexicos Maquiladora industry. Another challenge to the Maquiladora industry is raising global competition, particularly from China. Therefore, the magnitude of the industrys contraction during the most recent recession suggests that there are more factors influencing the industry than just the business cycle. This paper presents the creation of the Maquiladora industry, its success following the NAFTA agreement, and its recent downturn. It also explores the answers to the following questions: How much of the Maquiladora downturn was due to the business cycle? How much was due to structural change? Is the Maquiladora industry ready to face rising global competition?

Notes from the Editors, February 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. c2-64
Author(s):  
The Editors
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Wage Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Labor Statistics ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics ◽  
The U.S ◽  
New Jobs

buy this issue According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy is experiencing an unemployment rate that is at a fifty-year low. Yet, wage growth continues to be weak, with continuing wage stagnation even at the peak of the business cycle. A major and largely undertheorized reason for the sluggish wages in a period of seeming full employment is to be found in the fact that the new jobs being created by the economy do not measure up to those of the past in terms of weekly wages and hours, or in the degree to which they support households or even individuals.

Book Reviews

2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-187
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Department Chair ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The University ◽  
The U.S

Patrick Pintus of Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille University reviews “Expectations, Employment and Prices” by Roger E. A. Farmer. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins: Presents a Keynesian economicsbased analysis of the business cycle and how to control it, focusing on the inefficiency of the equilibrium level of unemployment. Discusses the basic model; an extension to multiple goods; a model with investment and saving; a new way to understand business cycle facts; the Great Depression--telling the Keynesian story in a new way; the wartime recovery--a dynamic model where fiscal policy matters; the U.S. economy from 1951 to 2000--employment and gross domestic product; money and uncertainty; money and inflation since 1951; and how to fix the economy. Farmer is Professor and Department Chair of the Department of Economics at the University of California, Los Angeles. Bibliography; index.

The effects of the business cycle on the size and composition of the U.S. Army

1983 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Dale ◽  
Curtis Gilroy
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals TRI-CYCLES ANALYSIS ON BANK PERFORMANCE: PANEL VAR APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denny Irawan ◽  
Febrio Kacaribu
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle

The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance sheet with Panel Vector Autoregressive approach based on GMM style estimation by implementing PVAR package developed by Abrigo and Love (2015). The result shows dynamic relationship between business cycle macro risk and financial risk cycles. The study also observes prominent role of risk cycles in driving bank performance. We also show the existence of financial accelerator phenomenon in Indonesian banking system, in which financial cycles precede the business cycle macro risk.

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