Correcting Some Historical Oversights and Lacunas in the History of Decision Science Regarding the Contributions of George Boole (1854), John Maynard Keynes (1908, 1921), and Theodore Hailperin (1986) Made by the Proponents of the 'Modern' Multiple Priors/Choquet Expected Utility Approaches to Non Additive Probability

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Decision Science ◽  
Choquet Expected Utility ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
Multiple Priors ◽  
Additive Probability ◽  
History Of ◽  
George Boole

scholarly journals The Return of National Self-Sufficiency? Excavating Autarkic Thought in a De-Globalizing Era

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Helleiner
Keyword(s):  
Intellectual History ◽  
International Political Economy ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
New Politics ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
National Economic ◽  
History Of ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Rich History

Abstract As the global crisis triggered by the COVID-19 virus unfolded, The Economist magazine published a cover in May 2020 titled “Goodbye globalization: the dangerous lure of self-sufficiency.” The title summed up well the new political interest in the ideology of national economic self-sufficiency in the pandemic context. Unfortunately, contemporary textbooks in the field of international political economy (IPE) say little about this kind of “autarkic” thought. No survey of the history of autarkic thought exists even within specialist IPE literature or in the fields of intellectual history and the history of economic thought. Filling this gap in existing scholarship, this article highlights a rich history of autarkic thought that includes the ideas of famous thinkers such as Jean-Jacques Rousseau, Johann Fichte, Mohandas Gandhi, and John Maynard Keynes. Three core rationales for a high degree of national self-sufficiency have been advanced in the past: (1) insulation from foreign economic influence, (2) insulation from foreign political and/or cultural influence, and (3) the promotion of international peace. At the same time, considerable disagreements have existed among autarkists about some of these rationales and their relative importance, as well as about the precise meaning of national self-sufficiency. These disagreements stemmed not just from differences in their specific goals but also from the different conditions across time and space in which autarkic thought was developed. In addition to improving understanding of the autarkic ideological tradition, this article contributes to emerging scholarship attempting to overcome Western-centrism in IPE scholarship as well as literature exploring the new politics of de-globalization in the current era.

scholarly journals Cumulative Prospect Theory Version with Fuzzy Values of Outcome Estimates

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov ◽  
Peter Grabusts
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Development History ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Choosing solutions under risk and uncertainty requires the consideration of several factors. One of the main factors in choosing a solution is modeling the decision maker’s attitude to risk. The expected utility theory was the first approach that allowed to correctly model various nuances of the attitude to risk. Further research in this area has led to the emergence of even more effective approaches to solving this problem. Currently, the most developed theory of choice with respect to decisions under risk conditions is the cumulative prospect theory. This paper presents the development history of various extensions of the original expected utility theory, and the analysis of the main properties of the cumulative prospect theory. The main result of this work is a fuzzy version of the prospect theory, which allows handling fuzzy values of the decisions (prospects). The paper presents the theoretical foundations of the proposed version, an illustrative practical example, and conclusions based on the results obtained.

Choquet expected utility with affine capacities

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-187
Author(s):  
Pascal Toquebeuf
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Choquet Expected Utility

History, Theory, and Education

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
John L. Rury
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Theory ◽  
History Of Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Attention To Detail

The distinguished Africanist Robert Harms once observed that “we historians are a practical people who pride ourselves on our attention to facts and our painstaking attention to detail.” If this is the case in other parts of the world, it is certainly true of American historians, who have been periodically admonished for their disinterest in questions of theory and purpose related to their craft. In this issue we have an opportunity to discuss the question of theory as it may pertain to the history of education, with particular attention to the United States. Regardless of whether one believes that historians should be ardent students of social theory, after all, there is little question about whether they should be cognizant of it. Indeed, there is danger in ignoring it. Quoting John Maynard Keynes, Harms suggested that practical people who feel “exempt from any intellectual influences” run the risk of “becoming slaves to some defunct economist.”

scholarly journals Testing Ambiguity Models through the Measurement of Probabilities for Gains and Losses

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Baillon ◽  
Han Bleichrodt
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Choquet Expected Utility ◽  
Maxmin Expected Utility ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Descriptive Validity ◽  
Utility Models ◽  
Ambiguity Attitudes ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
Fourfold Pattern

This paper reports on two experiments that test the descriptive validity of ambiguity models using a natural source of uncertainty (the evolution of stock indices) and both gains and losses. We observed violations of probabilistic sophistication, violations that imply a fourfold pattern of ambiguity attitudes: ambiguity aversion for likely gains and unlikely losses and ambiguity seeking for unlikely gains and likely losses. Our data are most consistent with prospect theory and, to a lesser extent, α-maxmin expected utility and Choquet expected utility. Models with uniform ambiguity attitudes are inconsistent with most of the observed behavioral patterns. (JEL D81, D83, G11, G12, G14)

Money

Money ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith ◽  
James K. Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
Recent History ◽  
Andrew Jackson ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
Attitudes Toward Money ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
History Of ◽  
Present Understanding

This book discusses the history of money. It considers what most shaped the development of money (as in the case of the Bank of England), the forces contending for control of money (as in the case of the struggle between Andrew Jackson and Nicholas Biddle), and what contributed most to our present understanding of money (as in the work of John Maynard Keynes and the recent history). This chapter considers changes in attitudes toward money, showing that they proceed in long cyclical swings. When money is bad, people want it to be better. When it is good, they think of other things. People who are experiencing inflation yearn for stable money and those who are accepting the discipline and the costs of stability come to accept the risks of inflation. This cycle teaches us that nothing, not even inflation, is permanent.

The Pragmatic Basis of Keynes's Political Economy

1946 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dudley Dillard
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
History Of Economic Thought ◽  
John Maynard Keynes ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Widespread Adoption ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Second World

Although we still live in the shadow of the years between the First and the Second World Wars, already it seems quite clear that future historians of economic thought will regard John Maynard Keynes as the outstanding economist of this turbulent period. As one writer has recently said, “The rapid and widespread adoption of the Keynesian theory by contemporary economists, particularly by those who at first were highly critical, will probably be recorded in the future history of economic thought as an extraordinary happening.” Book after book by leading economists acknowledges a heavy debt to the stimulating thought of Lord Keynes. The younger generation of economists, especially those whose thinking matured during the great depression of the thirties, have been particularly influenced by him.

scholarly journals A simple axiomatization and constructive representation proof for choquet expected utility

2003 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 907-915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Chateauneuf ◽  
Jürgen Eichberger ◽  
Simon Grant
Keyword(s):  
Expected Utility ◽  
Choquet Expected Utility
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document