Output potenziale, gap e inflazione in Italia nel lungo periodo (1861-2010): un’analisi econometrica (Potential Output, Output Gap, and Inflation in Italy in the Long Term (1861-2010): An Econometric Analysis)

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Baffigi ◽  
Maria Elena Bontempi ◽  
Roberto Golinelli
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output

scholarly journals The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (48) ◽  
pp. 4-15
Author(s):  
Manuel García-Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
The Impact

Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time.

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

Potential Output and Output Gap: Some Estimates for France (in French)

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustapha Baghli ◽  
Carine Bouthevillain ◽  
Olivier de Bandt ◽  
Henri Fraisse ◽  
Hervé le Bihan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output

The Relationship between Human Development and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frances Stewart ◽  
Gustav Ranis ◽  
Emma Samman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Complementary Relationship ◽  
Development Index ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Intervening Variables

This chapter explores the interactions between economic growth and human development, as measured by the Human Development Index, theoretically and empirically. Drawing on many studies it explores the links in two chains, from economic growth to human development, and from human development to growth. Econometric analysis establishes strong links between economic growth and human development, and intervening variables influencing the strength of the chains. Because of the complementary relationship, putting emphasis on economic growth alone is not a long-term viable strategy, as growth is likely to be impeded by failure on human development. The chapter classifies country performance in four ways: virtuous cycles where both growth and human development are successful; vicious cycles where both are weak; and lopsided ones where the economy is strong but human development is weak, or conversely ones where human development is strong but the economy is weak.

scholarly journals Modelling Italian Potential Output and the Output Gap

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Bassanetti ◽  
Michele Caivano ◽  
Alberto Locarno
Keyword(s):  
Output Gap ◽  
Potential Output

scholarly journals Estimating the Potential Output and Output Gap of Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Joseph Atta-Mensah ◽  
Sawuya Nakijoba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Hp Filter ◽  
Output Gaps

This paper focuses on the estimation of the potential output of Ghana. Potential output or its derivative the output gap are not observable. However, “potential output” is a powerful conceptual tool that guides analysts and policymakers in gauging whether the current observed economic activity is sustainable and how much of it is greater than or less than potential. Based on Ghanaian GDP annual data from 1960 – 2017, the paper estimates potential output and output gaps using the following methodology: linear time trends, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter trends, multivariate HP filter trends, and a production function model. The results show that estimates of the potential output and output gaps are model-dependent as estimates vary from one methodology to the other. The paper recommends that policymakers should not mechanically choose a model to estimate output gap. For the avoidance of costly policy mistakes, the choice of the model should be complemented with sound judgement based on a set of pertinent economic information.

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