Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models: Understanding the Role of the Discount Factor

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunghyun Henry Kim ◽  
M. Ayhan Ayhan Kose
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Discount Factor

DYNAMICS OF OPEN-ECONOMY BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS: ROLE OF THE DISCOUNT FACTOR

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunghyun Henry Kim ◽  
M. Ayhan Kose
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Interest Rate Shocks ◽  
Approximation Errors ◽  
Incomplete Asset Markets ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Parameter Values

This paper examines the dynamic implications of different preference formulations in open-economy business-cycle models with incomplete asset markets. In particular, we study two preference formulations: a time-separable preference formulation with a fixed discount factor, and a time-nonseparable preference structure with an endogenous discount factor. We analyze the moment implications of two versions of an otherwise identical open-economy model—one with a fixed discount factor and the other with an endogenous discount factor—and study impulse responses to productivity and world real-interest-rate shocks. Our results suggest that business-cycle implications of the two models are quite similar under conventional parameter values. We also find that the approximation errors associated with the solutions of these two models are of the same magnitude.

THE ROLE OF FOREIGN DEBT AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY DSGE MODEL

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (05) ◽  
pp. 1550077
Author(s):  
MYUNG-SOO YIE ◽  
BYOUNG HARK YOO
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
State Level ◽  
Korean Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

We examine the role of foreign debt and financial frictions in the Korean business cycle using a small open economy DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where domestic banks borrow external funds, denominated in foreign currencies, for a risk premium and make loans to domestic producers. We find that the Korean economy is ‘financially vulnerable’, which means that the risk premium increases when the domestic currency depreciates. As a result, depreciation could cause recession, rather than expansion, when there exist substantial amount of foreign debt or financial frictions. A simulation shows that the Korean business cycle would suffer less volatility with a lower steady-state level of foreign debt or no financial frictions.

SHOCKS AND FRICTIONS IN THAI ECONOMY: THROUGH THE LENS OF BUSINESS CYCLE ACCOUNTING

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
VIMUT VANITCHAREARNTHUM
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Prime Factor ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
Business Cycle Accounting ◽  
Labor Wedge ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Investment Fluctuation

This paper applies business cycle accounting methodology to analyze the sources of aggregate fluctuations in Thai economy, especially during the recent severe recessions in 1997–1998 and 2008–2009. This exploration helps researchers uncover possible shocks and frictions that drive business cycle in a small and open economy within a minimal model set-up. Under this methodology, a fluctuation in aggregate output can be accounted for by exogenous time-varying wedges, namely efficiency wedge, investment wedge, labor wedge, government wedge, etc. This study found that the efficiency wedge is essential in accounting for aggregate output, consumption and investment fluctuation, while the bond wedge, which only present in an open economy setting, is a prime factor in accounting for movement in current accounts. I conducted counterfactual experiments to see what accounts for the output drop during recent recessions. I find that the efficiency wedge played a key role in recent recessions in Thailand, while the investment wedge was accounted for slow economic recovery after the recessions.

scholarly journals Retrospectives Whatever Happened to the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies?

2003 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avi J Cohen ◽  
G. C Harcourt
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Real Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Theory ◽  
Economic Process ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Simple Models

We argue that the Cambridge capital theory controversies of the 1950s to 1970s were the latest in a series of still-unresolved controversies over three deep issues: explaining and justifying the return to capital; Joan Robinson's complaint that, due to path dependence, equilibrium is not an outcome of an economic process and therefore an inadequate tool for analyzing accumulation and growth; and the role of ideology and vision in fuelling controversy when results of simple models are not robust. We predict these important and relevant issues, latent in endogenous growth and real business cycle theories, will erupt in future controversy.

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals Demand and Defective Growth Patterns: The Role of The Tradable and Non-Tradable Sectors in an Open Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 272-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandile Hlatshwayo ◽  
Michael Spence
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Total Income ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tradable Sector

This paper examines the underlying structural elements of US growth patterns, pre- and post-crisis. Prior to the recession, the US economy exhibited a defective growth pattern driven by outsized domestic demand. As domestic aggregate demand retreats to more sustainable levels relative to total income, the tradable side of the economy is a catalyst for restoring strong growth. A structural rebalancing is already underway; although it is only a third of the economy, the tradable sector generated more than half of gross gains in value-added since the start of the recovery. However, distributional issues loom on the horizon.

scholarly journals Inequality over the business cycle: the role of distributive shocks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Marius Clemens ◽  
Ulrich Eydam ◽  
Maik Heinemann
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract This paper examines how wealth and income inequality dynamics are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution over the business cycle. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016, although inequality is, on average countercyclical and significantly associated with the capital share, one-third of the countries display a pro- or noncyclical relationship. To analyze the observed pattern, we incorporate distributive shocks into an RBC model, where agents are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to wealth and ability. We find that whether wealth and income inequality behave countercyclically or not depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the persistence of shocks. We match the model to quarterly US data using Bayesian techniques. The parameter estimates point toward a non-monotonic relationship between productivity and inequality fluctuations. On impact, inequality increases in response to TFP shocks but subsequently declines. Furthermore, TFP shocks explain 17% of inequality fluctuations.

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

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