Fiscal and Generational Imbalances and Generational Accounts: A 2012 Update

Author(s):  
Jagadeesh Gokhale
Empirica ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Deeg ◽  
Christian Hagist ◽  
Stefan Moog

Author(s):  
Janusz Jablonowski ◽  
Christoph Mueller ◽  
Bernd Raffelh�schen

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry Ter Rele ◽  
Claudio Labanca

1991 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 55-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan J. Auerbach ◽  
Jagadeesh Gokhale ◽  
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Author(s):  
Ulrich Benz ◽  
Christian Hagist

SummaryGenerational accounting is - given the future demographic developments in OECD countries - an established tool to quantify the fiscal situation of public coffers. However, as all economic methods dealing with future developments it has critical points. One in particular is the calibration on one base year which neglects business cycle effects on the generational accounts. This paper aims to analyze in which way and to which degree generational accounts and the associated sustainability indicators are biased due to the neglecting of business cycle effects. To do this we use the Hodrick-Prescott-Filter to estimate the business cycle effects for the German general government budgets from 1996 to 2005. We then calculate sustainability indicators based on all years given the actual and the business cycle adjusted budgets. It can be stated that the neglect of the business cycle definitively has an effect on the outcomes of the generational accounting framework. However the magnitude of this effect is rather small, at least for Germany. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that the German fiscal policy was rather pro-cyclical during the examined time frame and that the effects of these policies on the generational accounts are larger than the business cycle effects.


Author(s):  
Mikhail Denisenko ◽  
Vladimir Kozlov

The paper presents a modern methodology for estimating the impact of different age groups on the production and distribution of national income, called national transfer (generational) accounts. The human economic lifecycle is divided into stages defined by the ratio of labour income to consumption. In middle ages, gained income is higher than current consumption. The resulting surplus of resources is supposed to cover the income deficit in older and younger age groups. Estimates of the deficit or surplus at different ages are made for the Russian population for 2013 based on the results of age profiles taken from administrative sources and surveys. In the paper we also estimate the projected changes in the lifecycle deficit under different demographic development scenarios. Age profiles of labour income and consumption are used to calculate the effective economic support and the influence of demographic changes in Russia on economic growth rates in the near future.


10.3386/w3589 ◽  
1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Auerbach ◽  
Jagadeesh Gokhale ◽  
Laurence Kotlikoff

Empirica ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Decoster ◽  
Xavier Flawinne ◽  
Pieter Vanleenhove

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