The Value of Private Information in Investment Research: Do Company On-Site Visits Affect the Trading Patterns and Performance of Professional Investors?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorne N. Switzer ◽  
Mariane Keushgerian
Author(s):  
Ou Ruan ◽  
Lixiao Zhang ◽  
Yuanyuan Zhang

AbstractLocation-based services are becoming more and more popular in mobile online social networks (mOSNs) for smart cities, but users’ privacy also has aroused widespread concern, such as locations, friend sets and other private information. At present, many protocols have been proposed, but these protocols are inefficient and ignore some security risks. In the paper, we present a new location-sharing protocol, which solves two issues by using symmetric/asymmetric encryption properly. We adopt the following methods to reduce the communication and computation costs: only setting up one location server; connecting social network server and location server directly instead of through cellular towers; avoiding broadcast encryption. We introduce dummy identities to protect users’ identity privacy, and prevent location server from inferring users’ activity tracks by updating dummy identities in time. The details of security and performance analysis with related protocols show that our protocol enjoys two advantages: (1) it’s more efficient than related protocols, which greatly reduces the computation and communication costs; (2) it satisfies all security goals; however, most previous protocols only meet some security goals.


2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-236
Author(s):  
Chelsea Phillips

In her recent book on celebrity pregnancy, legal scholar Renée Ann Cramer writes, “in the years from 1970 to 2000, popular culture became more open to performances of pregnancy; once kept secret and articulated as private, pregnancy became ‘public.’” This is not wholly true. In the English-speaking world, “celebrity pregnancy,” with its overt performances of femininity and maternity, bodily monitoring, and careful dance between the concealment and revelation of private information, had its first public moment in the long eighteenth century. That century's professional theatre was a site for the intersection of two forms of women's labor: the maternal labor of pregnancy and birth, which affected women of all classes throughout a century with rapidly rising birth rates, and the theatrical labor of professional actresses. Although the latter has been the subject of much-needed study in recent decades, the impact of maternal labor on the professional theatre of the time is only beginning to be explored. Between 1700 and 1800, birth rates for middle- and upper-class British woman rose significantly. Among the aristocracy, rates doubled from four to eight children, and middle-class women averaged seven births by the end of the century. At the same time, women in the professional theatre were inventing and modeling new forms of public womanhood, capitalizing on a burgeoning culture of female celebrity, and, in some cases, wielding exceptional economic and artistic power. Though not all actresses had children, many did, and at rates that were not unlike those of their nontheatrical counterparts. For these women, the successful balancing of maternal and theatrical labor could be vital to their careers and, in many cases, their family's survival. The need to balance personal and professional demands was all the more imperative within the hectic and extremely competitive repertory system. The day-to-day repertory of a London company was of necessity a malleable thing, accommodating short runs of popular pieces, audience requests, illnesses and absences of company members, and the perpetual state of competition between the patent houses of Covent Garden and Drury Lane. To compete profitably, managers needed competent and popular performers (bodies) and performance vehicles (texts) in which to feature them. As the available bodies changed, then, so too did the available plays for performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zidong An ◽  
Joao Tovar Jalles

PurposeThis paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts.Design/methodology/approachThe first part inspects the causes of official fiscal forecasts revisions by Congressional Budget Office (CBO) between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons.FindingsBoth individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, the authors uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable, which cast doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased toward optimism while this is less the case for consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts but also evidence seems to indicate that consensus forecasts dominate CBO in terms of information content.Originality/valueThe authors provide a detailed analysis on US fiscal forecasts both using revenue and expenditure and decomposing forecast errors into several explanatory components. Moreover, the authors compare official with private-sector (consensus) forecasts and assess which one is better or preferred.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 303-321
Author(s):  
Elena Precourt ◽  
Henry Oppenheimer

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine analyst followings of firms starting from one year prior to their filing for Chapter 11 and as the firms progress through bankruptcy proceedings with a focus on firms receiving “Hold” or better recommendations. The authors attempt to answer questions such as what the common characteristics of the firms receiving stronger than expected recommendations one year prior to filing for bankruptcy reorganization or while in bankruptcy are, and how the market reacts to the issuance of stronger ratings for those firms. Design/methodology/approach The authors design various regressions and apply them to a total of 2,754 sell-side analyst recommendations and 325 firms that are either approaching bankruptcy filing or in the process of reorganizing. In each analysis, the authors control for several firm and performance characteristics. Findings The authors find that the probability of securing stronger ratings is higher for small firms and for those followed by a greater number of analysts than for large firms and firms followed by fewer analysts. The market becomes more skeptical of optimistic evaluations closer to the date of bankruptcy filing (perhaps reflecting some anticipation) and reacts more positively to rating upgrades issued during bankruptcy protection than to the upgrades issued before the bankruptcy filing. Research limitations/implications The conclusions are based on the analysis of analyst recommendations issued shortly before Chapter 11 filings and during bankruptcy proceedings. The conclusions could be strengthened by further analysis of firms’ post-bankruptcy recovery and performance and examination of analyst recommendations issued for the firms after they emerge from Chapter 11.. Practical implications Analyst security ratings that are more positive than expected are perhaps the result of superior expertise and access to private information. During bankruptcy proceedings, when information disclosure is limited, investors could greatly benefit from reports issued by security analysts. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature in a number of ways. First, the authors contribute to the literature on the analyst ratings of firms in distress by considering the period between bankruptcy filing and emergence, while the existing literature provides analysis of pre-bankruptcy recommendations and forecasts. Second, the authors focus on better than expected ratings rather than all types of ratings as the firms approach bankruptcy filings and proceed through reorganization. Finally, they evaluate how investors react to stronger than expected analyst ratings.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longwen Zhang ◽  
Minghai Wei

Purpose Corporate investment behavior increases the uncertainty of a company’s operation and performance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how analyst recommendations respond to corporate uncertainty caused by investment behavior and what motivates analysts to react as they do. Design/methodology/approach The authors test two motivation hypotheses: the hypothesis that analysts are currying favor with management to obtain private information and the hypothesis that analysts have conflicts of interest due to connections. Using Chinese analyst-level data from 2007 to 2015, the authors find that overall investment levels, R&D investment and M&A events are significantly positively correlated with analyst recommendations, suggesting that analysts tend to react optimistically to corporate investment behavior. Findings Analysts are only optimistic about companies with low information transparency, suggesting that analysts may be trying to curry favor with management to gain access to private information. The authors find that analysts with stronger recommendations have more private information and analysts with more private information publish more accurate earnings forecasts, which supports the hypothesis that analysts curry favor with management through optimistic recommendations to obtain more private information. This is consistent with the logic that the difficulty of earnings forecasting increases under uncertain conditions, increasing the demand for private information. The authors then group the analysts according to their underwriting connections, securities company’s proprietary connections and fund connections, and find that the positive correlation between corporate investment behavior and analyst recommendations exists only in the unconnected groups. This is evidence against the hypothesis that analysts have conflicts of interest due to their connections. Originality/value First, the authors link the optimism of analysts with the uncertainty of analysts’ information inputs to partially unpack the black box of analysts’ analyses. Second, the authors test the two hypotheses mentioned. There is a lack of comparative studies on the influence of different motivations on the behavior of analysts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 1025-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko S. Heinle ◽  
Nicholas Ross ◽  
Richard E. Saouma

ABSTRACT This paper complements the ongoing empirical discussion surrounding participative budgeting by comparing its economic merits relative to a top-down budgeting alternative. In both budgeting regimes, private information is communicated vertically between a principal and a manager. We show that top-down budgeting incurs fewer agency costs than bottom-up budgeting whenever the level of information asymmetry is relatively low. Although the choice between top-down and bottom-up budgeting ultimately determines who receives private information within the firm, we find that both the principal and manager's preferences over the allocation of private information remain qualitatively similar across the two budgeting paradigms. Specifically, while the principal always prefers either minimal or maximal private information, the manager prefers an interim or maximal level of private information regardless of who is privately informed. Last, we use our model to address empirical inconsistencies relating the firm's choice of budgeting process, the resulting budgetary slack, and performance.


2001 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Greg Burton ◽  
Robert A. Leitch ◽  
Brad M. Tuttle

We investigate the influence of economic, risk preference, and agency components on a user's willingness to adopt a new information system. Using Vickrey auctions to elicit users' utility functions, we find that economic considerations are tempered by riskseeking behavior that leads to a lowering of bids for systems with greater economic benefit. With respect to agency issues, we find that subjects value their private information in that they bid less for systems that result in large decreases to their private information. This result is consistent with the prevalence of slack-inducing contracts in the field.


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