Forecasting the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price Using Multi Model Inference

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Ryan ◽  
Martin Emery
2021 ◽  
pp. 2250006
Author(s):  
You-Shuai Feng ◽  
Bao-Ming Cao

The fluctuation characteristics of the correlations between China and the US agricultural futures markets have attracted extensive attention from academic circles and government departments. As the main factor that affects the agricultural futures price, the impact of international crude oil futures price on the correlations of the Sino-US agricultural futures markets is also worth discussing. Therefore, this paper adopts the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DFA) and multifractal detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (MF-DPXA) to explore the fluctuation characteristics of cross-correlations for China and the US agricultural futures markets before and after removing the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures price as well as the impact on the cross-correlations. The results show that the fluctuation characteristics of the cross-correlations and partial cross-correlations between the corresponding varieties of China and the US agricultural futures markets as well as among the varieties within the markets are multifractal. The cross-correlation behaviors and the cross-market risks are all affected to varying degrees by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures weaken the cross-market risk of the Sino-US soybean futures, while strengthening the cross-market risk of the Sino-US corn and wheat futures. In addition, the impact of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the cross-market risks among China agricultural futures is greater than those among the US corresponding agricultural futures.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4173
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch

We use a dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and its international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we found evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers had predictive value for the realized variance at intermediate (two quarters) and long (one year) forecasting horizons in several of the forecasting models that we studied. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we used a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.


2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. Anders ◽  
Thomas Olson ◽  
Kris Robinson ◽  
John Wiebe ◽  
Rena DiGregorio ◽  
...  

1982 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Wayne E. Fuller ◽  
David L. Caffey
Keyword(s):  
The West ◽  

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. 142-143
Author(s):  
Noah P Jesko ◽  
Thomas L Perkins ◽  
Ty E Lawrence ◽  
John Richeson ◽  
Charles Looney

Abstract Sixty-eight (68) crossbred steers were evaluated using two real-time, B-mode ultrasound units to estimate final carcass attributes. The cattle were ultrasounded at the West Texas A&M research feedlot (Canyon, Texas) and carcass data was collected at the West Texas A&M Meats Laboratory (Canyon, Texas) or Tyson Fresh Meats (Amarillo, Texas). Objectives of the study were 1) to compare ultrasound live animal data to carcass attributes at harvest 2) to evaluate the performance differences between the ALOKA 500 (ALK) and the EVO ultrasound units All ultrasound images were captured by the same Ultrasound Guidelines Council (UGC) certified technician with images being processed at the UltraInsights Laboratory (Pierce, Colorado). The correlations between 12th rib fat thickness of the carcass (FTC) and ultrasound (FTU) were 0.84 for the ALK and 0.85 for the EVO, with no differences being found between the two units (P = 0.15). Correlations between the 12-13th rib carcass ribeye area (REAC) and ultrasound ribeye area (REAU) were 0.69 for the ALK and 0.66 for the EVO. There was no difference in REAU size between the two units. Carcass marbling score (MS) and ultrasound intramuscular fat (IMFU) correlations were 0.78 for the ALK and 0.84 for the EVO. The IMF data were found to be different between the two units, with the EVO measuring a mean IMFU value of 6.03 and the ALK a value of 5.26 with the change of 0.77 being different (P < 0.01). It is concluded that both ultrasound units performed favorably when predicting FTC and marbling score but were not highly correlated for REAU. It was found that the predictions between the two units on FT and REA were the same, though the EVO was higher on both. The IMFU values between the ALK and EVO were different, with the EVO again predicting higher values.


2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 1499-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W.W. He ◽  
Jerry T.K. Kwok ◽  
Alan T.K. Wan

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