scholarly journals The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Italy: A Long-Term Perspective

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvana Bartoletto ◽  
Bruno Chiarini ◽  
Elisabetta Marzano
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p89
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.

Market Challenges, Risks, and Policy

2018 ◽  
pp. 163-188
Author(s):  
Adam Christopher Wood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Government ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

This chapter first examines what caused the need to regain global stability after the financial crisis. The author provides a brief refresher of how the market crash in 2008, and subsequent Great Recession, was initially fueled while honing in on the allocation of “the fuel” coupled with the repeals of bicentennial-long legislation and the associated dangers of these economic policy changes. Notations from Nobel laureates and interagency economists from the IMF and World Bank aid in identifying the consequences of these policy decisions while simultaneously illustrating the enhanced risk within a variety of markets. Next, the author discusses the current state and relative stability of the financial markets, economic policy, and the risks associated therein. Lastly, this chapter provides recommendations for the future of monetary and fiscal policy, globalization, and what the government (and Wall Street) must consider should they seek to attain long-term financial stability from an international perspective. Monetary and fiscal policy decisions implemented and in-progress by the Federal Reserve are fastidiously examined throughout this chapter.

scholarly journals The sustainability of Swedish fiscal policy: a re-examination

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arcade Ndoricimpa
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Slope Coefficient ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Structural Changes ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

PurposeThis study reexamines the sustainability of fiscal policy in Sweden.Design/methodology/approachTo test the sustainability of fiscal policy, two approaches are used; the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010), testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model and time-varying cointegration test of Bierens and Martins (2010), and Martins (2015).FindingsUsing the first approach of testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, the results indicate that government spending and revenue are cointegrated with two breaks. An estimation of a two-break long-run model shows that the slope coefficient increases from 0.678 to 0.892 from the first to the second regime, implying that fiscal deficits were weakly sustainable in the first two regimes, from 1800 to 1943, and from 1944 to 1974. Further, results from time-varying cointegration test indicate that cointegration between spending and revenue in Sweden is time-varying. Fiscal deficits were found to be unsustainable for the periods 1801–1811, 1831–1838, 1853–1860 , 1872–1882, 1897–1902, 1929–1940 and 1976–1982 and weakly sustainable over the rest of the study period.Research limitations/implicationsA number of implications arise from this study: (1) Accounting for breaks in cointegration analysis and in the estimation of the level relationship between spending and revenue is very important because ignoring breaks may lead to an overestimated slope coefficient and hence a bias on the magnitude of fiscal deficit sustainability. (2) In testing for cointegration between spending and revenue, assuming a constant cointegrating slope when it is actually time-varying can also be misleading because deficits can be sustainable for a period of time and unsustainable over another period.Originality/valueThe contribution of this study is three-fold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a period of two centuries, from 1800 to 2011. Second, because of the importance of structural change in economics, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010) to test for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, as well as time-varying cointegration of Bierens and Martins (2010) and Martins (2015).

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