scholarly journals Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oya Celasun ◽  
Roxana Mihet ◽  
Lev Ratnovski
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (89) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oya Celasun ◽  
Lev Ratnovski ◽  
Roxana Mihet ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inflation Expectations

Oil price forecasting using probabilistic projection of the United States dollar

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Noll Moriarty
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Petroleum Exploration ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Projection

Accurate forecasts for medium-term commodity prices are essential for resource companies committing to large capital expenditures. The inaccuracy of conventional forecasting methods is well known because they tend to be extrapolations of the current price trend. The inevitable reversal catches many by surprise. This paper demonstrates that medium-term (2–5 years) commodity prices are not strongly linked to economic health and commodity demand-supply, but are instead inversely controlled by supply-demand for the United States dollar (USD) and consequent valuation. P90, P50 and P10 projection bounds for future valuation of the USD are presented based on the successful probabilistic techniques of the petroleum exploration industry. This allows probabilistic projections for the oil price, which is inversely related to the USD valuation. I show that the USD is significantly undervalued at present. Probabilistic projection of the USD valuation indicates that likely appreciation will put downward pressure on commodity prices for the next 2–5 years. If the USD premise is correct, likely appreciation of the dollar during the next 2–5 years will hold stable, or even decrease, oil price to around USD $50 BBL. This is a contrary expectation to most forecasts—one which, if it eventuates, should give cause for reflection before committing to large capital expenditures. Further investigation could examine the extent to which the USD valuation can be modelled as a fractal phenomenon. If so, it would mean the USD valuation is not driven by conventional economic fundamentals; instead, it is a semi-random number series with serial correlation. If true, probabilistic forecasts of the USD can be significantly improved, hence that of medium-term commodity prices.

scholarly journals Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Grothe ◽  
Aidan Meyler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and the United States. The results show that both market-based and survey-based measures have a non-negligible predictive power for inflation developments, as compared to statistical benchmark models. Therefore, for horizons of one and two years ahead, market-based and survey-based inflation expectations actually convey information on future inflation developments.

Wholesale Commodity Prices in the United States, 1700–1861

1939 ◽  
Vol 49 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 283-285
Author(s):  
Norman J. Silberling
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Western Hemisphere Department

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Global Growth

The global economy has slowed, with important consequences for growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean. The slowdown in economic activity has been broad-based among advanced economies and more pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies, partly reflecting trade and geopolitical tensions. Global growth is projected to decline to the lowest level since the global financial crises, before recovering in 2020. More importantly, growth is projected to decline in 2019–20 in the United States and China, which are LAC’s two main trading partners. The ongoing sluggishness of global growth and trade is affecting export growth in LAC, posing significant headwinds to the outlook. External demand for the region remains subdued, with trading partner growth (including China, Europe, other LAC countries, and the United States) projected to decline in 2019, before recovering modestly over the medium term. Moreover, commodity prices (notably energy and metals), key drivers of growth in LAC in the past, are projected to decline with a likely modest negative impact on regional growth going forward.

Chapter II. The World Overseas

1963 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 15-22
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Major Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Production ◽  
The World

The prospects for world production and trade are much the same as they were in February. The outlook is rather brighter in the United States, where production is rising and investment plans have been increased, but, in spite of some rise in commodity prices, perhaps fractionally gloomier for the primary producing countries, many of whose imports have been falling. World trade should be in fair equilibrium this year without any major change in the size of most countries' export surpluses; but the equilibrium will be achieved at a lower overall growth rate than would be possible if reserves were larger and better distributed.

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