Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Yiu ◽  
Lu Jin
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Pattern Approach

scholarly journals BRE INDEX FOR THE HONG KONG RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie Chi Man Hui ◽  
Joe Tak Yun Wong
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Market Outlook ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Residential Market

This paper examines housing price trends and prediction, of homeowners and potential home buyers, and establishes an independent index (the BRE Index) based on longitudinal telephone surveys collected. The Index, first of this kind in Hong Kong, measures price expectations and benchmarks the level of housing actors’ confidence in the residential market. This is the first paper delivered as part of a government‐funded research project. It synthesizes the key findings of the first survey mounted from 17th to 20th December, 2003. The results show that confidence among housing actors has begun to grow since the property crash in late 1997 with the “overall” BRE Index standing at 564 (0–1000 range). In general, homeowners, people with higher educational level and higher income are optimistic about the market outlook. Residential property prices are expected to rise marginally in the short term. Statistically, there is no significant difference in housing price expectations between homeowners and non‐owners. In their minds, economic condition is the most important factor affecting housing decisions. Apparently, the rising trends in the immediate past have been used to form expectations. The strength of the association between actual capital gains and forecast capital gains is moderately strong, and there appears co‐movement between them. This leads us to believe that hope‐led expectations increase the likelihood of sustaining price increases. The current market is largely driven by expectations. If households formed their expectations in a similar manner in other periods, there would be similar “positive hit” results, which might render the Index more powerful.

scholarly journals The Effect of Expected Losses on the Hong Kong Property Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Li ◽  
Wayne Xinwei Wan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Commercial Markets ◽  
Commercial Market ◽  
Market Transaction ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Loss Effect

AbstractExpected losses anchored to purchase prices can affect actual transactions in different property sectors. Utilizing the data of over a million commercial and residential property transactions in Hong Kong from 1991 to 2015, we find that sellers facing nominal losses relative to their prior purchase prices attained higher selling prices than their counterparts. We suggest two market factors to account for the extent of the loss effect on the market transaction prices. First, the loss effect is only prominent when comparable transaction information is not readily accessible, such as in the less-transacted commercial property market. Second, our results suggest the relevance of the loss effect to the boom-bust property cycle in both the residential and commercial markets. The effect of expected losses on transaction prices is relatively weak in the bust period between 1998 and 2003 when the Hong Kong property market lost almost two-thirds of its value, and it enlarges with the market recovering. The loss effect is not attenuated at the aggregate market level but is associated with strong reductions in price declines in the bust period and in the commercial market. These results have implications for understanding the market adjustment of the loss effect in the property market and its association with the aggregate market dynamics in a boom-bust property cycle.

scholarly journals Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 115-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Yiu ◽  
Jun Yu ◽  
Lu Jin
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market
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