Increasing Size of Government: Implication for Output Growth in Nigeria

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ike Nnia Mba ◽  
Kalu N. Olugu
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Size Of Government

scholarly journals Determination of Optimal Size of Government in Relation to Output Growth in Nigeria: A Monte Carlo Simulation Evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
David Umoru ◽  
Janet A Onimawo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Positive Growth Rate

This paper attempted to estimate optimal size of public sector that prompts positive output growth in Nigeria based on Monte Carlo simulation of estimated parameters of an error correction model having controlled for regime effect. Our motivation derives from economic theory that absence of government could be injurious to output growth culminating in unavailability of contracts and public goods. Using different policy scenarios of public sector share in GDP, the study validates and supports the tenets of Rahn Curve that economy shrinks when government grows enormous as we found 40% public sector spending as proportion of GDP as optimal public sector size that stimulates positive growth rate of about 0.095% having controlled for regime effect. By implication, our original contribution in this study is amplified on our empirics that public sector role in Nigerian economy is less than or equal to 40%. Consequently, any size of public sector beyond forty percent is economically destructive as it capable of stimulating negative spill overs on the economy due to growing taxes and public debt repayment. Hence, public sector spending should be significantly less than forty percent or at most forty percent for purpose of economic growth. This indeed translates to enforcing responsible fiscal policy centred on forty percent public sector size.

The relationship between output growth and unemployment in the Philippines economy (1990-2014):

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Marlon A. Mojica ◽  
Virgilio M. Tatlonghari
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Parameter Instability

This paper examines the empirical relationship between unemployment and real output in the Philippines utilizing quarterly data from the Labor Force Survey by the Philippine Statistics Authority for the period from 1990-2014. The study employed three variants of Okun’s Law – the “gap” approach, the “first difference” approach, and a dynamic approach.   Findings show that the Okun’s coefficients based on the gap approach are consistent with the theoretical expectation of a negative relationship.  In the ARDL model, labor force participation rate and trade openness were found to be significantly related to unemployment. The result of dummy variable test revealed the presence of structural break following the re-definition of unemployment in the Philippines in 2005. Recursive least squares and rolling regressions show evidence of parameter instability in several sub-periods.

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