Very Long-Term Mean Reversion and Predictability of the U.S. Stock Market Returns

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeri Zakamouline
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The U.S

LONG-TERM MEMORY IN EMERGING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET

2006 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 495-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHAOQUN MA ◽  
HONGQUAN LI ◽  
LIN ZOU ◽  
ZHIJIAN WU
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Rescaled Range Analysis

The notion of long-term memory has received considerable attention in empirical finance. This paper makes two main contributions. First one is, the paper provides evidence of long-term memory dynamics in the equity market of China. An analysis of market patterns in the Chinese market (a typical emerging market) instead of US market (a developed market) will be meaningful because little research on the behaviors of emerging markets has been carried out previously. Second one is, we present a comprehensive research on the long-term memory characteristics in the Chinese stock market returns as well as volatilities. While many empirical results have been obtained on the detection of long-term memory in returns series, very few investigations are focused on the market volatility, though the long-term dependence in volatility may lead to some types of volatility persistence as observed in financial markets and affect volatility forecasts and derivative pricing formulas. By means of using modified rescaled range analysis and Autoregressive Fractally Integrated Moving Average model testing, this study examines the long-term dependence in Chinese stock market returns and volatility. The results show that although the returns themselves contain little serial correlation, the variability of returns has significant long-term dependence. It would be beneficial to encompass long-term memory structure to assess the behavior of stock prices and to research on financial market theory.

scholarly journals Do Higher-Rated or Enhancing ESG of Firms Enhance Their Long–Term Sustainability? Evidence from Market Returns in Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeonwoo Do ◽  
Sunghwan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
The Third

In this study, we investigate the effects of the level and changes in environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) rating, an index developed to represent a firm’s long-term sustainability, on the stock market returns of Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) listed firms over the period 2011–2018. We find that the changes in ESG ratings have statistically significant short-term effects on their abnormal returns. However, their impacts on short-term abnormal returns decrease some days after the disclosure and become negative in the third year. The results imply that investors in the Korean stock market do not view corporate social responsibility activities as a means of supporting their long-term sustainability, judging from the firm value for a long period after their rating. Rather, based on the effects of the changes on coefficient signs over the period—positive in the year and the year after, no effects in the following year, and negative in the third year and later—we can infer that the short-term oriented market sentiments of investors might worsen their long-term stock performances, thus deteriorating their sustainability and growth opportunities.

scholarly journals Testing the volatility spillover between crude oil price and the U.S. stock market returns

2019 ◽  
pp. 1221-1230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Kondoz ◽  
Ilhan Bora ◽  
Dervis Kirikkaleli ◽  
Seyed Alireza Athari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals IPO Waves: How Market Performances Influence The Market Timing Of IPO?

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1679
Author(s):  
Firas Batnini ◽  
Moez Hammami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Autocorrelation Analysis ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this paper is to study the impact of stock markets on Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). Several studies have shown that the need for financing is not the main trigger for an IPOfavorable market conditions may play a more important part. This work prove the existence of a significate relationship between past stock market returns and the number of IPOs. Before setting the date for an IPO, managers analyze long term financial market yields, a bullish stock market over a six month/ one year period encourages IPOs activities. In the other hand, even a negative performance but over a two-year period may have the same effect. They expect a stock market inversion. These results were obtained by autocorrelation analysis and count regression.

What do foreign flows tell us about stock market movements in the presence of permanent and transitory shocks?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transitory Shocks ◽  
The Common ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors

Purpose There is no research on understanding the difference in the nature of volatility and what it entails for the underlying relationship between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and stock market movements. The purpose of this paper is to explore how permanent and transitory shocks dominate the common movement between FII flows and the stock market returns. As emerging markets are a major destination of international portfolio investments, the author uses India as a perfect case study to this end. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the permanent-transitory as well as a trend-cycle decomposition approach to gain further insights into the common movement between foreign institutional investors (FII) flows and the stock market. Findings When the author identifies innovations based on their degree of persistence, transitory shocks dominate stock returns, whereas permanent shocks explain movements in foreign institutional investors (FII) flows. Also, stock returns have a larger cyclical component compared to cycles in foreign flows. The authors find the sharp downward (upward) movement in the stock market (FII flows) cycle in the initial period of the COIVD-19 pandemic was quickly reversed and currently, the stock market (FII flows) is historically above (below) the long-term trend, hinting at a correction in months ahead. The authors find strikingly similar stock market cycles during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 period. Research limitations/implications Evidence suggests the presence of long stock market cycles – substantial and persistent deviations of actual price from its fundamental (trend) value determined by the shared relationship with foreign flows. This refutes the efficient market hypothesis and makes a case favoring diversification gains from investing in India. Further, transitory shocks dominate the forecast error of stock market movements. Thus, the Indian market provides profit opportunities to foreign investors who use a momentum-based strategy. The author also finds support for the positive feedback trading strategy used by foreign investors. Practical implications There is a need for policymakers to account for the foreign undercurrents while formulating economic policies, given the findings that it is the permanent shocks that mostly explain movements in foreign institutional flows. Further, the author finds only stock markets error-correct in response to any short-term shocks to the shared long-term relationship, highlighting the disruptive (though transitory) role of FII flows. Originality/value Unlike existing studies, the author models the relationship between stock market returns and foreign institutional investors (FII) flows by distinguishing between the permanent and transitory movements in these two variables. Ignoring this distinction, as done in existing literature, can affect the soundness of the estimated parameter that captures the nexus between these two variables. In addition, while it may be common to find that stock market returns and FII flows move together, the paper further contributes by decomposing each variable into a trend and a cycle using this shared relationship. The paper also contributes to understanding the impact of COVID-19 on this relationship.

scholarly journals Optimism in Financial Markets: Stock Market Returns and Investor Sentiments

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Limongi Concetto ◽  
Francesco Ravazzolo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
European Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
The U.S

This paper investigates how investor sentiment affects stock market returns and evaluates the predictability power of sentiment indices on U.S. and EU stock market returns. As regards the American example, evidence shows that investor sentiment indices have an economic and statistical predictability power on stock market returns. Concerning the European market instead, investigation provides weak results. Moreover, comparing the two markets, where investor sentiment of U.S. market tries to predict the European stock market returns, and vice versa, the analyses indicate a spillover effect from the U.S. to Europe.

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