The Asset Pricing-Macro Nexus and Return-Cash Flow Predictability

Author(s):  
Ravi Bansal ◽  
Yaron A. A.
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Konečný ◽  
Marek Zinecker

This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.


2012 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 1415-1444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Ogneva

ABSTRACT This paper develops a simple methodology based on the earnings response coefficient framework that allows decomposing realized returns into cash flow shocks and returns excluding cash flow shocks. I find that stocks with poor (good) accrual quality were on average subject to relatively lower (higher) cash flow shocks over the past 37 years. These lower (higher) cash flow shocks offset the higher (lower) expected returns of poor (good) accrual quality firms. After excluding cash flow shocks, future realized returns are negatively associated with accrual quality. The premiums pertaining to accrual quality are both statistically and economically significant in standard asset-pricing tests when cash flow shocks are excluded by firm-specific return decomposition. Overall, this paper provides evidence on the existence of a priced accrual quality risk factor, and underscores the importance of controlling for cash flow shocks in asset-pricing tests that use realized returns.


Liquidity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Nurlis Azhar ◽  
Helmi Chaidir

This study was conducted to examine the effect of Free Cash Flow Ratio, Debt Equity Ratio (DER), Institutional Ownership, Employee Welfare and Price Earning Ratio (PER) to Divident Payout Ratio (Parliament) partially on manufacturing companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2015. In addition, to test the feasibility of regression model, the influence of Free Cash Flow Ratio, Debt Equity Ratio (DER), Institutional Ownership, Employee Welfare and Price Earning Ratio (PER) to Divident Payout Ratio (DPR) simultaneously at manufacturing company listed on Bursa Indonesia Securities period 2011-2015. The population in this study are 146 manufacturing companies that have been and still listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2013. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling and obtained sample of 42 companies. Data analysis technique used is by using multiple linear regression test. The results showed that Free Cash Flow Ratio, no significant effect on Divident Payout Ratio (DPR). Debt Equity Ratio (DER) has a negative and significant influence on Divident Payout Ratio (DPR), Institutional Ownership has a significant positive effect on Divident Payout Ratio (DPR), Employee Welfare and Price Earning Ratio (PER) has a positive and significant influence on the Divident Payout Ratio ). Simultaneously Free Cash Flow Ratio, Debt Equity Ratio (DER), Institutional Ownership, Employee Welfare and Price Earning Ratio (PER) give effect to Divident Payout Ratio. The prediction ability of the five variables to the Divident Payout Ratio (DPR) is 21.3% as indicated by the adjusted R square of 0.271 while the remaining 79.7% is influenced by other factors not included in the research model.


Author(s):  
Valentine Tarasova ◽  
Iryna Kovalevska
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Ying Tay Lee ◽  
Devinaga Rasiah ◽  
Ming Ming Lai

Human rights and fundamental freedoms such as economic, political, and press freedoms vary widely from country to country. It creates opportunity and risk in investment decisions. Thus, this study is carried out to examine if the explanatory power of the model for capital asset pricing could be improved when these human rights movement indices are included in the model. The sample for this study comprises of 495 stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia, covering the sampling period from 2003 to 2013. The model applied in this study employed the pooled ordinary least square regression estimation. In addition, the robustness of the model is tested by using firm size as a controlled variable. The findings show that market beta as well as the economic and press freedom indices could explain the cross-sectional stock returns of the Malaysian stock market. By controlling the firm size, it adds marginally to the explanation of the extended CAP model which incorporated economic, political, and press freedom indices.


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