The Performance of Credit Rating Systems in the Assessment of Collateral Used in Eurosystem Monetary Policy Operations

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

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ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF REGIONAL BONDS OF THE ORENBURG REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF MITIGATING MONETARY POLICY AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY

Intelligence Innovations Investment ◽

10.25198/2077-7175-2020-6-48 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 48-60

Author(s):

V.S. Levin ◽

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Credit Rating ◽

Factor Model ◽

High Reliability ◽

Municipal Bonds ◽

Market Pricing ◽

Orenburg Region ◽

Investment Tool ◽

Tax Savings ◽

Global Uncertainty

The relevance of the research is that regional bonds are not only a source of covering the region’s public debt, but also a tool for investment. Currently, the investment attractiveness of such instruments is low, since they are not liquid enough and are low-yielding. In the context of global uncertainty and monetary policy easing, regional bonds can be considered as an alternative investment tool, since they have a fairly high reliability and low investment risk. The purpose of the research is to assess the investment attractiveness of regional bonds of the Orenburg region. The main results are as follows. The comparative characteristics of the Moscow exchange indices on the terms and depth of correction in the securities market in the first half of 2020 are carried out. The dynamics of the exchange rate value of bonds of the Orenburg region (issue # 35003) and the index of municipal bonds are analyzed. It is shown that the bonds of the Orenburg region included in the index of municipal bonds are more stable and conservative financial instruments in comparison with other units of the considered population. The correlation between the yield, price and duration of bonds from the municipal bond index is identified and described based on correlation and regression analysis. To do this, the relationships between the yield and price of bonds were initially estimated using pair regression, and then the yield and duration of the bonds were estimated. As a result, a multi-factor model of multiple regression was built, which allows forecasting the yield of regional bonds. Other factors that are not included in the model and may have an impact on bond yields are indicated. It is shown that in comparison with budget loans, bond loans have a number of advantages: a longer-term nature of attracting funds, availability for a large number of investors, market pricing, the ability to improve the image and investment attractiveness of the Issuer with the help of a credit rating of the region, confirmed by leading rating agencies. The reliability of regional bonds of the Orenburg region was confirmed by the rating Agency Fitch Ratings on June 12, 2020 at the level of «BB+», the forecast is «Stable». It is shown that an additional incentive to purchase sub-Federal bonds by individuals can be a significant tax savings in the framework of opening and active use of an individual investment account.

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