Confounding in Intertemporal Choice Designs: New Sampling Methods for Exponential, Arithmetic, and Hyperbolic Discounting

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Doyle ◽  
Catherine Huirong Chen ◽  
Krishna Savani
Keyword(s):  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting

scholarly journals Temporal discounting in adolescents and adults with Tourette syndrome

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0253620
Author(s):  
Canan Beate Schüller ◽  
Ben Jonathan Wagner ◽  
Thomas Schüller ◽  
Juan Carlos Baldermann ◽  
Daniel Huys ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tourette Syndrome ◽  
Positive Reinforcement ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Neurodevelopmental Disorder ◽  
Temporal Discounting ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Developmental Trajectory ◽  
Adult Patients ◽  
Control Functions ◽  
Male Subjects

Tourette syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder associated with hyperactivity in dopaminergic networks. Dopaminergic hyperactivity in the basal ganglia has previously been linked to increased sensitivity to positive reinforcement and increases in choice impulsivity. In this study, we examine whether this extends to changes in temporal discounting, where impulsivity is operationalized as an increased preference for smaller-but-sooner over larger-but-later rewards. We assessed intertemporal choice in two studies including nineteen adolescents (age: mean[sd] = 14.21[±2.37], 13 male subjects) and twenty-five adult patients (age: mean[sd] = 29.88 [±9.03]; 19 male subjects) with Tourette syndrome and healthy age- and education matched controls. Computational modeling using exponential and hyperbolic discounting models via hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation revealed reduced temporal discounting in adolescent patients, and no evidence for differences in adult patients. Results are discussed with respect to neural models of temporal discounting, dopaminergic alterations in Tourette syndrome and the developmental trajectory of temporal discounting. Specifically, adolescents might show attenuated discounting due to improved inhibitory functions that also affect choice impulsivity and/or the developmental trajectory of executive control functions. Future studies would benefit from a longitudinal approach to further elucidate the developmental trajectory of these effects.

Discount models in intertemporal choice: an empirical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel María Parra Oller ◽  
Salvador Cruz Rambaud ◽  
María del Carmen Valls Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Discount Function ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to determine the discount function which better fits the individuals' preferences through the empirical analysis of the different functions used in the field of intertemporal choice.Design/methodology/approachAfter an in-depth revision of the existing literature and unlike most studies which only focus on exponential and hyperbolic discounting, this manuscript compares the adjustment of data to six different discount functions. To do this, the analysis is based on the usual statistical methods, and the non-linear least squares regression, through the algorithm of Gauss-Newton, in order to estimate the models' parameters; finally, the AICc method is used to compare the significance of the six proposed models.FindingsThis paper shows that the so-called q-exponential function deformed by the amount is the model which better explains the individuals' preferences on both delayed gains and losses. To the extent of the authors' knowledge, this is the first time that a function different from the general hyperbola fits better to the individuals' preferences.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the search of an alternative model able to explain the individual behavior in a more realistic way.

scholarly journals A Model of Focusing in Economic Choice*

2012 ◽  
Vol 128 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Botond Kőszegi ◽  
Adam Szeidl
Keyword(s):  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Monetary Incentives ◽  
Present Bias ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Economic Choice ◽  
Lifestyle Choices ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
A Current

Abstract We present a generally applicable theory of focusing based on the hypothesis that a person focuses more on, and hence overweights, attributes in which her options differ more. Our model predicts that the decision maker is too prone to choose options with concentrated advantages relative to alternatives, but maximizes utility when the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives are equally concentrated. Applying our model to intertemporal choice, these results predict that a person exhibits present bias and time inconsistency when—such as in lifestyle choices and other widely invoked applications of hyperbolic discounting—the future effect of a current decision is distributed over many dates, and the effects of multiple decisions accumulate. But unlike in previous models, in our theory (1) present bias is lower when the costs of current misbehavior are less dispersed, helping explain why people respond more to monetary incentives than to health concerns in harmful consumption; and (2) time inconsistency is lower when a person commits to fewer decisions with accumulating effects in her ex ante choice. In addition, a person does not fully maximize welfare even when making decisions ex ante: (3) she commits to too much of an activity—for example, exercise or work—that is beneficial overall; and (4) makes “future-biased” commitments when—such as in preparing for a big event—the benefit of many periods’ effort is concentrated in a single goal.

scholarly journals Are Delay and Interval Effects the Same Anomaly in the Context of Intertemporal Choice in Finance?

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Salvador Cruz Rambaud ◽  
Piedad Ortiz Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Reference Point ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
The Other ◽  
Delay Effect ◽  
Interval Effect ◽  
Or Groups ◽  
Delay Effects ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

Traditionally, the interval and delay effects have been identified and considered as the same anomaly in the context of intertemporal choice, when individuals or groups of individuals make their decisions about reward preferences. This has supposed that most studies on this topic have been focused on the delay effect and, consequently, that the discount functions provided by the existing literature have considered only this effect. This is the case of hyperbolic discounting, which has been used to describe the delay, but not the interval effect. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to carry out a detailed analysis of both anomalies, which will allow us to mathematically relate them, thus finding their analogies and differences. To do this, we will first analyze the concept of delay effect and later the different definitions of the interval effect. The main conclusion of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, if the benchmark for valuation is fixed, the delay effect coincides with the so-called decreasing interval effect. On the other hand, if the assessment reference point is the beginning of each interval, both anomalies are different. These findings make necessary to redefine the concept of interval effect. Finally, we will analyze the relationship between the interval effect, the delay effect and the subadditivity

Internal-Time Temporal Difference Model for Neural Value-Based Decision Making

2010 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3062-3106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Nakahara ◽  
Sivaramakrishnan Kaveri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Subjective Time ◽  
Temporal Difference ◽  
Internal Time ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Neural Activities ◽  
Choice Tasks

The temporal difference (TD) learning framework is a major paradigm for understanding value-based decision making and related neural activities (e.g., dopamine activity). The representation of time in neural processes modeled by a TD framework, however, is poorly understood. To address this issue, we propose a TD formulation that separates the time of the operator (neural valuation processes), which we refer to as internal time, from the time of the observer (experiment), which we refer to as conventional time. We provide the formulation and theoretical characteristics of this TD model based on internal time, called internal-time TD, and explore the possible consequences of the use of this model in neural value-based decision making. Due to the separation of the two times, internal-time TD computations, such as TD error, are expressed differently, depending on both the time frame and time unit. We examine this operator-observer problem in relation to the time representation used in previous TD models. An internal time TD value function exhibits the co-appearance of exponential and hyperbolic discounting at different delays in intertemporal choice tasks. We further examine the effects of internal time noise on TD error, the dynamic construction of internal time, and the modulation of internal time with the internal time hypothesis of serotonin function. We also relate the internal TD formulation to research on interval timing and subjective time.

scholarly journals Rats exhibit similar biases in foraging and intertemporal choice tasks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Kane ◽  
Aaron M. Bornstein ◽  
Amitai Shenhav ◽  
Robert C. Wilson ◽  
Nathaniel D. Daw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Optimal Foraging Theory ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Common Mechanism ◽  
Similar Time ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Choice Tasks ◽  
Exponential Discounting

AbstractAnimals, including humans, consistently exhibit myopia in two different contexts: foraging, in which they harvest locally beyond what is predicted by optimal foraging theory, and intertemporal choice, in which they exhibit a preference for immediate vs. delayed rewards beyond what is predicted by rational (exponential) discounting. Despite the similarity in behavior between these two contexts, previous efforts to reconcile these observations in terms of a consistent pattern of time preferences have failed. Here, via extensive behavioral testing and quantitative modeling, we show that rats exhibit similar time preferences in both contexts: they prefer immediate vs. delayed rewards and they are sensitive to opportunity costs — delays to future decisions. Further, a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model, a form of hyperbolic discounting with separate components for short-and long-term rewards, explains individual rats’ time preferences across both contexts, providing evidence for a common mechanism for myopic behavior in foraging and intertemporal choice.

scholarly journals Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (7) ◽  
pp. 3357-3376 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Andreoni ◽  
Charles Sprenger
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Common Ratio ◽  
The Future

Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. This is problematic when studying time preferences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present-biased behavior. We systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment. Discounted expected utility performs well with risk, but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply. The data cannot be explained by prospect theory, hyperbolic discounting, or preferences for resolution of uncertainty, but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty. The data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences. (JEL C91 D81 D91)

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