War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Prado ◽  
Mark Dincecco
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Long Run

Multiple structural breaks in cointegrating regressions: a model selection approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Schmidt ◽  
Karsten Schweikert
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Penalized Regression ◽  
Adaptive Lasso ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Multiple Structural Breaks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Model Selection Approach ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
Lasso Estimator

Abstract In this paper, we propose a new approach to model structural change in cointegrating regressions using penalized regression techniques. First, we consider a setting with known breakpoint candidates and show that a modified adaptive lasso estimator can consistently estimate structural breaks in the intercept and slope coefficient of a cointegrating regression. Second, we extend our approach to a diverging number of breakpoint candidates and provide simulation evidence that timing and magnitude of structural breaks are consistently estimated. Third, we use the adaptive lasso estimation to design new tests for cointegration in the presence of multiple structural breaks, derive the asymptotic distribution of our test statistics and show that the proposed tests have power against the null of no cointegration. Finally, we use our new methodology to study the effects of structural breaks on the long-run PPP relationship.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

scholarly journals Government Size and Economic Growth in Vietnam: A Panel Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
THÀNH SỬ ĐÌNH
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
A Share

The effect of government relative size on economic growth is a contentious issue. This paper is undertaken to test the relationship between government size and economic growth in Vietnam. The study is a panel data investigation, involving 60 provinces over the period 1997–2012. Various measures of government size are defined: provincial government expenditure as a share of gross provincial product (GPP), provincial government revenue as a share of GPP, real provincial government expenditure per capita, and real provincial government revenue per capita. Empirical estimates are employed by conducting Difference Generalized Method of Moments method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Pooled Mean-Group method by Pesaran, et al. (1999). These tests reveal: (i) provincial government expenditure (revenue) as a share of GPP has a significantly negative effect on economic growth; and (ii) the real government expenditure (revenue) per capita has a significantly positive effect on economic growth. It is also found that the long-run and short-run coefficients of government expenditure size are significant and negative, that the correction mechanism from the short run disequilibrium to the long run equilibrium is not convergent, and that government employment has a negative correlation with economic growth.

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Explosive Behavior in the Long-Run: The Case of Australian Real House Prices, 1870–2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-84
Author(s):  
Vicente Esteve ◽  
Maria A. Prats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bubble Behavior ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Time

Abstract In this article, we use tests of explosive behavior in real house prices with annual data for the case of Australia for the period 1870–2020. The main contribution of this paper is the use of very long time series. It is important to use longer span data because it offers more powerful econometric results. To detect episodes of potential explosive behavior in house prices over this long period, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness proposed by Phillips et al. (2011), (2015a,b). According to the results, there is a clear speculative bubble behavior in real house prices between 1997 and 2020, speculative process that has not yet been adjusted.

NON-LINEAR EFFECTS OF TERRORISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN: ACCOUNTING FOR CAPITAL PER WORKER AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1950014
Author(s):  
RONALD RAVINESH Kumar ◽  
SYED JAWAD HUSSAIN SHAHZAD ◽  
PETER JOSEF STAUVERMANN ◽  
NIKEEL Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Capital Share ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

In this study, we examine the asymmetric effects of terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1970–2016, while considering the role of capital per worker and structural breaks. We use the non-linear ARDL approach to establish the long-run association and to estimate the short-run and long-run effects accordingly. The results indicate the presence of asymmetries in both long and short run. Moreover, 1% decrease in terrorism results in an increase of per capita income by 0.02% in the long run and 0.001% in the short run. Assuming symmetry, the long run capital share is 0.47. In asymmetric relation, a 1% increase in capital share increases output by 0.55%, whereas a 1% decrease in capital stock decreases output by 0.26%. The break effects show that the years 1993 and 2004 have negative effects on growth. The vector error correction model-based causality results indicate a unidirectional causality from terrorism to per capita income. Overall, the results highlight that terrorism is growth retarding.

scholarly journals Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect CO2 Emissions? Empirical Evidence from the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Wang ◽  
Kefeng Xiao ◽  
Zhou Lu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run

This paper aims to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (measured by the World Uncertainty Index—WUI) on the level of CO2 emissions in the United States for the period from 1960 to 2016. For this purpose, we consider the unit root test with structural breaks and the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model. We find that the per capita income promotes CO2 emissions in the long run. Similarly, the WUI measures are positively associated with CO2 emissions in the long run. Energy prices negatively affect CO2 emissions both in the short run and the long run. Possible implications of climate change are also discussed.

scholarly journals A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Chee-Wooi Hooy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the impact of China's export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Design/methodology/approach – The analytical framework comprises of both the export and trade balance models. Unit root and cointegration tests with break and error correction modeling are employed in the analyses. Findings – Regime shifts are evident in the long run where structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia crisis and China's accession into WTO. While the income effects are more apparent in most cases, the real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. Besides, the trade balance estimation is generally more consistent that the Chinese exports have exhibited complementary effects in the long-run, mainly for advanced export destination such as Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. On the whole, there is insufficient evidence to support the “PRC competitive threat”. Practical implications – The empirical evidence disfavors currency devaluation for current account correction and reveals that the fear for China effect might be over-projected. Closer regional collaboration and trade integration between the two nations are well expected. Originality/value – The paper assesses the China's crowding out effect and magnitudes of Malaysian export and trade balance elasticities with model specifications that consider structural breaks. The paper also assesses the macro dimension of income and real exchanges effects.

Does financial development improve environmental quality in Turkey? An application of endogenous structural breaks based cointegration approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javaid Ahmad Dar ◽  
Mohammad Asif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Structural Breaks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run effect of financial sector development, energy use and economic growth on carbon emissions for Turkey, in presence of possible regime shifts over a period of 1960-2013. Design/methodology/approach Along with the conventional unit root tests, Zivot-Andrews unit root test with structural break has been employed to check the stationarity of variables. The cointegrating relationship between variables is investigated by using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test and Hatemi-J threshold cointegration test. Findings The results confirm a cointegrating relationship between the variables. The long-run relationship between the variables has gone through two endogenous structural breaks in 1976 and 1986. Development of financial sector improves environmental quality whereas energy use and economic growth degrade it. The results challenge the validity of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Turkish economy. Research limitations/implications The study uses domestic credit to private sector as a proxy for development of financial sector. The model can be improved by constructing an index of financial development instead of using a single determinant as a proxy for financial development. Practical implications The study may pave the way for policy makers to capture important environmental pollutants in better way and develop effective and efficient energy and economic policies. This may make significant contribution to curbing CO2 emissions while sustaining economic growth. Originality/value This is the only study to examine long-run impact of financial sector development on carbon emissions, using the threshold cointegration approach. Hence, the study is a gentle request to reduce the possible omitted variable econometric estimation bias and fill the gap in the existing literature.

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