Analysis of the US Real Estate Market: Time-Varying Estimation and Forecast of the S&P Case-Shiller Composite 20 Cities

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Leblanc ◽  
Rachid Bokreta
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals On the Dynamics of International Real-Estate-Investment Trust-Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measuress

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1048
Author(s):  
Keagile Lesame ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
David Gabauer ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trust ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Pacific ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Interdependence

In this paper, we investigate the time-varying interconnectedness of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets using daily REIT prices in twelve major REIT countries since the Global Financial Crisis. We construct dynamic total, net total and net pairwise return and volatility connectedness measures to better understand systemic risk and the transmission of shocks across REIT markets. Our findings show that that REIT market interdependence is dynamic and increases significantly during times of heightened uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that the US REIT market along with major European REITs are generally sources of shocks to Asian-Pacific REIT markets. Furthermore, US REITs appear to dominate European REITs. These findings highlight that portfolio diversification opportunities decline during times of market uncertainty.

Volatility causality and contagion in international securitized real estate markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
KimHiang Liow ◽  
Qing Ye
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This paper aims to investigate volatility causality and return contagion on nine international securitized real estate markets by appealing to Markov-switching (MS) regime approach, from July 1992 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach An MS causality interaction model (Psaradakis et al., 2005), an MS vector auto-regression mode (Krolzig, 1997) and a multivariate return contagion model (Dungey et al., 2005) were used to implement the empirical investigations. Findings There exist regime shifts in the volatility causality pattern, with the volatility causality effects more pronounced during high volatility periods. During high volatility period, real estate markets’ causality interactions and inter-linkages contribute to strong spillover effect that leads to extreme volatility. However, there is relatively limited return contagion evidence in the securitized real estate markets examined. As such, the US financial crisis might probably be due to cross-market interdependence rather than contagion. Research limitations/implications Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-run price relationship but also the short-run market volatility connectedness and return correlation structure, the results of this MS causality and contagion study have provided valuable information on the evaluation of regime-dependent securitized real estate market risk, as well as useful guidance on asset allocation and portfolio management decisions for institutional investors. Practical implications Financial crisis is one of the key determinants of cross-market volatility interactions. Portfolio managers should be alerted of the observation that the US and the other developed securitized real estate markets are increasingly sharing “common market cycles” in recent years, thereby diminishing the diversification benefits. For policymakers, this research indicates that the volatilities of the US securitized real estate market could be helpful to predict those of other developed markets. It is also important for them to pay attention to those potential risk factors behind the amplified causality, contagion and volatility spillover at times of crisis. Finally, a wider implication for policymakers is to manage the transmission channels through which global stock market return and volatility shocks can affect the local economies and domestic financial markets, including securitized real estate markets. Originality/value Real estate investments have emerged to show low correlation with stocks and bonds and contributed to portfolio optimization. With real estate that can serve as a type of consumption commodity and an investment tool, the risk-return profile of real estate is different from that of the underlying stock markets. Therefore, the performance and investment dynamics and real estate-stock link are not theoretically expected to be similar, that requires separate empirical investigations. This paper aims to stand out from the many papers on the same or similar topics in the application of the three MS methodologies to regime-dependent real estate market integration.

On the asymmetries created by the Great Recession in the US real estate market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Achille Dargaud Fofack ◽  
Serge Djoudji Temkeng ◽  
Clement Oppong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us

PurposeThis paper aims at analyzing the asymmetries created by the Great Recession in the US real estate sector.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when the housing market moves from one regime to the other.FindingsThe results show that the effect of real estate loans, interest rate, quantitative easing and working age population are asymmetric across bull and bear regimes. It is also found that the estimated parameters are larger in bull regime than bear regime, indicating a tendency to create house price bubbles in bull market.Practical implicationsSince three of those asymmetric variables (real estate loans, interest rate and quantitative easing) are related to monetary policy, the Fed can mitigate their impact on an interest-sensitive sector such as housing by engaging in a countercyclical monetary policy.Originality/valueThe estimated intercept and the variance parameter both vary from one regime to the other, thus justifying the use of a regime-dependent model.

scholarly journals Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis Bago ◽  
Koffi Akakpo ◽  
Imad Rherrad ◽  
Ernest Ouédraogo
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

This paper provides new empirical evidence on housing bubble timing, volatility spillover, and bubble contagion between Japan and its economic partners, namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. First, we apply a generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test to the quarterly price-to-rent ratio from 1970Q1 to 2018Q4 to detect explosive behaviors in housing prices. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover in housing prices between Japan and its economic partners using the multivariate time-varying DCC-GARCH model. Third, we assess bubble contagion by estimating a non-parametric model of bubble migration with time-varying coefficients. We document two historical bubble episodes from 1970 to 2018 in Japan’s housing market. Moreover, we find evidence of volatility spillover effects and bubble contagion between Japan’s real estate market and its most important economic partners during several periods. In this context of market integration, countries need to develop coordinated real estate policies to address the risk of global real estate bubbles.

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