Reply to Meerburg et al: Growing Areas in Brazil and the United States with Similar Exposure to Extreme Heat Have Similar Yields - Appendix

Author(s):  
Wolfram Schlenker ◽  
Michael J. Roberts
Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungmin Lim ◽  
Mark Skidmore

Heat waves are the deadliest type of natural hazard among all weather extremes in the United States. Given the observed and anticipated increase in heat risks associated with ongoing climate change, this study examines community vulnerability to extreme heat and the degree to which heat island mitigation (HIM) actions by state/local governments reduce heat-induced fatalities. The analysis uses all heat events that occurred over the 1996–2011 period for all United States counties to model heat vulnerability. Results show that: (1) Higher income reduces extreme heat vulnerability, while poverty intensifies it; (2) living in mobile homes or rental homes heightens susceptibility to extreme heat; (3) increased heat vulnerability due to the growth of the elderly population is predicted to result in a two-fold increase in heat-related fatalities by 2030; and (4) community heat island mitigation measures reduce heat intensities and thus heat-related fatalities. Findings also show that an additional locally implemented measure reduces the annual death rate by 15%. A falsification test rules out the possibility of spurious inference on the life-saving role of heat island mitigation measures. Overall, these findings inform efforts to protect the most vulnerable population subgroups and guide future policies to counteract the growing risk of deadly heat waves.


2021 ◽  
pp. 0739456X2110536
Author(s):  
C. J. Gabbe ◽  
Gregory Pierce ◽  
Emily Petermann ◽  
Ally Marecek

Heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. This paper studies municipal heat adaptation using survey and planning data from California. We first analyze the characteristics of municipalities that innovate. Cities with heat-related policies have greater degrees of projected extreme heat, leadership support, environmental justice planning, and smaller Hispanic population shares. We then assess specific policy innovations of six large cities by plan type. Some strategies, including expanding tree canopies, have been widely adopted while others, such as cool walls, are rarely included. Findings suggest that planners can—and should—play a central role in heat adaptation planning.


AbstractThis study investigates whether extreme heat episodes (heatwaves) have contributed to the development of air conditioning technology in the United States. To this end we use weather data to identify days at which heat and relative humidity were above levels comfortable to the human body, and match these with patent data at the county level for nearly a hundred years. We find that in the two years after a county has experienced extreme heat air-conditioning patents increase. Overall, average extreme heat exposure results in an increase of 7.5% greater innovation. We find no similar increase in the frequency of non-air conditioning related patent filings, and therefore conclude that heatwaves result in innovation targeting their mitigation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiachuan Yang ◽  
Leiqiu Hu

<p>Extreme temperatures during heat and cold waves are severe health hazards for humans. Residents’ exposure controls the susceptibility of the urban population to these hazards, yet the spatiotemporal population dynamics has been long overlooked in assessing the risk. In this study, we conducted comparative analysis over 16 major urban habitats under three massive heat waves and one cold wave across the contiguous United States. Incorporating WRF weather simulations with commute-adjusted population profiles, we found that the interaction between population dynamics and urban heat islands makes residents exposed to higher temperatures under extreme weather. After accounting for diurnal population movement, urban residents’ exposure to heat waves is intensified by 2.0 ± 0.8 <sup>o</sup>C (mean ± standard deviation among cities), and their exposure to cold wave is attenuated by 0.4 ± 0.8 <sup>o</sup>C. The aggravated exposure to extreme heat is more than half of the heat wave hazard (temperature anomaly 3.7 ± 1.5 <sup>o</sup>C). The underestimated exposure to extreme heat needs to be taken into serious consideration, especially in nighttime given the evident trend of observed nocturnal warming. Results suggest that the major driver for modified exposure to heat waves is the spatial temperature variability, i.e., residents’ exposure is more likely to be underestimated in a spread-out city. The current release of warnings for hazardous extreme weather is usually at the weather forecast zone level, and our analysis demonstrates that such service can be improved through considering spatiotemporal population dynamics. The essential role of population dynamics should also be emphasized in temperature-related climate adaptation strategies for effective and successful interventions.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary H. Hayden ◽  
Hannah Brenkert-Smith ◽  
Olga V. Wilhelmi

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase the number of days producing excessive heat across the southwestern United States, increasing population exposure to extreme heat events. Extreme heat is currently the main cause of weather-related mortality in the United States, where the negative health effects of extreme heat are disproportionately distributed among geographic regions and demographic groups. To more effectively identify vulnerability to extreme heat, complementary local-level studies of adaptive capacity within a population are needed to augment census-based demographic data and downscaled weather and climate models. This pilot study, conducted in August 2009 in Phoenix, Arizona, reports responses from 359 households in three U.S. Census block groups identified as heat-vulnerable based on heat distress calls, decedent records, and demographic characteristics. This study sought to understand social vulnerability to extreme heat at the local level as a complex phenomenon with explicit characterization of coping and adaptive capacity among urban residents.


2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 262-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Annan ◽  
Wolfram Schlenker

Despite significant progress in average yields, the sensitivity of corn and soybean yields to extreme heat has remained relatively constant over time. We combine county-level corn and soybeans yields in the United States from 1989-2013 with the fraction of the planting area that is insured under the federal crop insurance program, which expanded greatly over this time period as premium subsidies increased from 20 percent to 60 percent. Insured corn and soybeans are significantly more sensitive to extreme heat that uninsured crops. Insured farmers do not have the incentive to engage in costly adaptation as insurance compensates them for potential losses.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Scott C. Sheridan ◽  
P. Grady Dixon ◽  
Adam J. Kalkstein ◽  
Michael J. Allen

AbstractMuch research has shown a general decrease in the negative health response to extreme heat events in recent decades. With a society that is growing older, and a climate that is warming, whether this trend can continue is an open question. Using eight additional years of mortality data, we extend our previous research to explore trends in heat-related mortality across the United States. For the period 1975–2018, we examined the mortality associated with extreme-heat-event days across the 107 largest metropolitan areas. Mortality response was assessed over a cumulative 10-day lag period following events that were defined using thresholds of the excess heat factor, using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. We analyzed total mortality and subsets of age and sex. Our results show that in the past decade there is heterogeneity in the trends of heat-related human mortality. The decrease in heat vulnerability continues among those 65 and older across most of the country, which may be associated with improved messaging and increased awareness. These decreases are offset in many locations by an increase in mortality among men 45–64 (+1.3 deaths per year), particularly across parts of the southern and southwestern United States. As heat-warning messaging broadly identifies the elderly as the most vulnerable group, the results here suggest that differences in risk perception may play a role. Further, an increase in the number of heat events over the past decade across the United States may have contributed to the end of a decades-long downward trend in the estimated number of heat-related fatalities.


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