scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty - Evidence from the US and the Euro Area

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Altavilla ◽  
Matteo Ciccarelli
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
The Us

Hungary’s rising prices may shift monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
National Bank

Significance The sharp slide in the forint is fuelling inflationary pressures, testing the resolve of the National Bank (MNB -- the central bank) to continue providing stimulus to the economy. Despite a surge in core inflation in Hungary to 3.8%, the MNB is using this year’s dovish U-turns by the ECB and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as cover to keep monetary policy ultra-loose. Impacts The dollar index is strengthening despite the dovish U-turn by the Fed and is putting an end to the sharp rally in EM currencies in January. Inflationary pressures will be muted across the euro-area, with core inflation falling to 0.8% in March, less than half the ECB’s target. PMIs show Czech and Polish manufacturing sectors continuing to contract and Hungarian growth at its weakest level since 2016.

scholarly journals Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (11) ◽  
pp. 3019-3041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Musso ◽  
Stefano Neri ◽  
Livio Stracca
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Housing Consumption ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Oil price shock in the US and the euro area – evidence from the shadow rate and the term premium

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-346
Author(s):  
Martin Pažický
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Cholesky Factorization ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Abstract The aim of this article is to investigate the consequences of oil price changes for the economy of the US and the euro area. Oil price transmission channel is assessed using Granger causalities and structural vector autoregressive (VAR) specifications (applying the Cholesky factorization and the restrictions following the method of Blanchard and Quah). The conventional oil price transmission channel is extended by a shadow policy rate and term premium, as the importance of both indicators has been growing rapidly in recent years. The results confirm that the oil price shock is not negligible in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and in the subsequent period of monetary policy normalization. The findings are confirmed by the outcomes of the Bayesian VAR specification with sign restrictions. The consequences of changes in oil prices have significantly grown since the introduction of unconventional monetary instruments. The magnitude of the response of industrial production, price level and shadow interest rate to the oil price shock is strongest in the period corresponding to the unconventional monetary policy. In many cases, however, the reaction is short-lived. The conventional instrument (policy rate) in the euro area has still not been sufficient to stabilize the economy in the recent period of monetary policy normalization in the US.

scholarly journals Does monetary policy in advanced economies have differentiated effects on portfolio flows to emerging economies?

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-70
Author(s):  
Marco Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Portfolio Flows ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Us Monetary Policy ◽  
Differentiated Effects

This work analyzes whether the monetary policy in advanced economies (the US, the euro area, and the UK) had differentiated effects on portfolio flows from these countries toward EMEs. The results show the following: First, US monetary policy had a bigger impact on bond and equity investment to EMEs than the euro area or UK monetary policy. Second, investors' response to US monetary policy was mostly homogeneous. Among EMEs regions, foreign portfolio investment to Emerging Europe and Latin America was more volatile that than to Emerging Asia, probably because other factors such as investors' preference (in the case of bond flows) or expectations of firms' profits (in the case of equity flows) could play an important role in investors' decisions. These results could be useful for policymakers from EMEs as a benchmark to anticipate differentiated effects in portfolio flows caused by advanced economies' monetary policy.

scholarly journals US vs. Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (199) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenio Cerutti ◽  
Carolina Osorio Buitron
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1-2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and the euro area. The literature has traditionally highlighted the influence of US monetary policy on driving cross-border bank flows, and more recently the importance of both US and Euro Area (EA) financial/banking sectors’ related variables. Our contribution is the simultaneous analysis of the role of these US and EA drivers, as well as their interactions with real sector shocks. We corroborate the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on cross-border lending to EMs, but we find that EA monetary policy seems to have an impact mostly on Emerging Europe, reflecting the fact that cross-border lending to most other EM regions is dollar denominated. We also find that real sector shocks in both the US and EA trigger an increase in cross-border lending, but less in EA when modeling the financial sector. Finally, for financial sector shocks, such as those associated with a decrease in bank leverage, our results indicate a broad-based overall contraction of cross-border lending if the shock originates in the US, and heterogenous effects across borrowing regions if the shock originates in the EA.

scholarly journals The Normalization of the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy from an Austrian Perspective

2018 ◽  
pp. 359-371
Author(s):  
Leef H. Dierks
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Fixed Income Securities ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates

After several years of historically low interest rates and quantitative easing, the European Central Bank (ECB) has finally started wind-ing down its ultra-accommodative monetary policy in late 2018. Among the first steps tapering its asset purchase programme (APP), which foresees monthly purchases of up to €30bn per month until September 2018 — «or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of infla-tion consistent with its inflation aim» (ECB, 2018a). By then, pur-chases of euro area fixed income securities on behalf of the ECB will have mounted to as much as €2,550bn or almost 90% of euro area GDP (€2,834bn in market prices in Q4 2017, the latest date for which data were available (ECB, 2018b)). Further, according to market esti-mates, the first hike of the main refinancing rate, which was slashed to 0% in March 2016, could emerge in Q1 2019, thereby following a tightening of the monetary policy the US Federal Reserve (FED) had already started in December 2015 (FED, 2015).

Monetary policy and redistribution: information from central bank balance sheets in the Euro area and the US

2013 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippine Cour-Thimann
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Redistributive Effects

AbstractThe exceptional measures by central banks during the financial crisis have led to renewed interest in the redistributive effects of monetary policy. This paper adopts the perspective of central bank balance sheets to assess such effects. It uses information from the euro area National Central Banks and the US Federal Reserve Banks to analyse the regional and sectoral effects of monetary policy. Central bank balance sheets capture sustained imbalances in payment flows across the euro area countries that peaked at 10% of GDP in the so-called Target balances, and across the US districts that reached 5% of GDP in the equivalent Interdistrict Settlement Accounts. These imbalances, combined with accommodative central bank liquidity, shifted risks from the private financial sector to the public sector and among taxpayers - yet, mechanisms are in place to mitigate such risks and the associated redistributive effects. The liquidity injection, while directly channelled at the stressed regions or sectors, has indirectly supported the financial sector at large. In different institutional contexts, the financial centres in Germany and in the New York district have been strengthened. They have been net recipients of payment inflows from the rest of the respective currency areas, equivalent in amounts to a third of the liquidity injection during the crisis.

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