Luck and the US Equity Premium

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Pollard
Keyword(s):  
Equity Premium ◽  
The Us

Forecasting stock returns in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelmonem Oueslati ◽  
Yacine Hammami
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Us ◽  
Diffusion Index ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the performance of various return forecasting variables and methods in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The authors document that market excess returns in Saudi Arabia are predicted by changes in oil prices, the dividend yield and inflation, whereas the equity premium in Malaysia is predicted only by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method and stock return predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. To interpret the findings, the authors perform two tests. The empirical results suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationally time-varying expected returns in Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the state-of-the-art in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting techniques to predict stock returns in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Findings The Saudi equity premium is predicted by oil prices, dividend yield and inflation. The Malaysian equity premium is predicted by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method. In both countries, predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. The tests suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationality in Saudi Arabia. Practical implications The empirical results have some practical implications. The fact that stock returns are predictable in Saudi Arabia makes it possible for policymakers to better evaluate future business conditions, and thus to take appropriate decisions regarding economic and monetary policy. In Malaysia, the results of this study have interesting implications for portfolio management. The fact that the Malaysian market seems to be inefficient suggests the presence of strong opportunities for sophisticated investors, such as hedge and mutual funds. Originality/value First, there are no papers that have studied the return predictability in Saudi Arabia in spite of its importance as an emerging market. Second, the methods that combine all predictive variables such as the diffusion index or the kitchen sink methods have not been implemented in emerging markets. Third, this paper is the first study to deal with time-varying short-horizon predictability in emerging countries.

Noisy information and stock market returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Li
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Noisy Information ◽  
The Us

Purpose This paper aims to study whether noisy public information that investors receive about the expected aggregate dividend growth rate can help better understand the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market. Design/methodology/approach This paper considers a dynamic asset pricing model with a representative agent, who cannot observe the expected growth rate of dividends and must learn its value by using noisy information. In addition, this paper presents a simple model for noisy information calibration. Findings With a coefficient of relative risk aversion below 10 and the time impatience parameter between 0 and 1, the calibrated model is able to yield an average risk-free interest rate, equity premium and stock return volatility that are close to the stylized facts in the US financial market. Originality/value First, this paper presents a different equilibrium model with a simple “catching up with the Joneses” preference and noisy information. Second, this paper develops a simple calibration procedure to calibrate the information process to study whether the calibrated model can help explain the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market data.

scholarly journals A challenge to triumphant optimists? A blue chips index for the Paris stock exchange, 1854–2007

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Le Bris ◽  
Pierre-Cyrille Hautcœur
Keyword(s):  
Economic History ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Financial Asset ◽  
Positive Real ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Performance

We have reconstructed a new blue chips (large caps) stock index for France from 1854 to 1998, based on a modern methodology. Our index differs profoundly from earlier indices, and is more consistent with French financial and economic history. We suggest this result casts some doubt on many historical stock indices, such as those used in Dimson, Marsh and Staunton's Triumph of the Optimists. Investment in French stocks provided a positive real return during the nineteenth century, but a negative one – because of inflation and wars – in the twentieth. Despite this secular negative real performance, stocks proved the best financial asset in the very long run, although with an equity premium lower than in the US.

scholarly journals The Equity Premium and Inflation: Evidence from the US

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Right

There is recent and strong evidence that nominal stock returns are independent of inflation. In what amounts to the same thing, when real stock returns are regressed on inflation the resulting estimated coefficient on inflation is negative and unitary. These two propositions are mathematically equivalent. The purpose of this paper is to show that the market stock return is also independent of expected inflation, as measured by the T-bill rate. Firstly, regressions of the equity premium on inflation produce invariably slope coefficients that are statistically insignificantly different from -1. The inflation variable on the right hand side of the regression picks up the sign and the magnitude of the T-bill rate in the equity premium on the left hand side of the regression. This is as expected because the T-bill rate is an unbiased predictor of the future inflation rate, or, in other terms, the T-bill rate is a proxy for expected inflation. Hence regressions of real stock returns on inflation are in substance the same as regressions of the equity premium on inflation, and in both cases nominal stock returns are independent of inflation, and of its expected proxy, the T-bill rate. Secondly, additional evidence is provided from regressions of stock market returns on the inflation rate and the T-bill rate taken together. The hypothesis that the sum of the two coefficients on these two variables is statistically insignificantly different from zero is strongly supported. Moreover, the joint null hypothesis that the first coefficient is equal to -1 and that the second coefficient is equal to +1 is also strongly supported. As a conclusion stock prices already reflect macroeconomic shocks and there is neither money illusion nor over and under adjustment on the part of investors.

The Eleventh Circuit Holds that Agreements in which Pharmaceutical Companies Pay Generic Companies Not to Compete May be Valid

2004 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-184
Author(s):  
Amy Garrigues
Keyword(s):  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Court Decisions ◽  
Patent Holder ◽  
Trial Court ◽  
Court Of Appeals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Antitrust Laws ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Appeals Court ◽  
Two Sides

On September 15, 2003, the US. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit held that agreements between pharmaceutical and generic companies not to compete are not per se unlawful if these agreements do not expand the existing exclusionary right of a patent. The Valley DrugCo.v.Geneva Pharmaceuticals decision emphasizes that the nature of a patent gives the patent holder exclusive rights, and if an agreement merely confirms that exclusivity, then it is not per se unlawful. With this holding, the appeals court reversed the decision of the trial court, which held that agreements under which competitors are paid to stay out of the market are per se violations of the antitrust laws. An examination of the Valley Drugtrial and appeals court decisions sheds light on the two sides of an emerging legal debate concerning the validity of pay-not-to-compete agreements, and more broadly, on the appropriate balance between the seemingly competing interests of patent and antitrust laws.

Relation of Statistically Significant, Abnormal, and Typical WAIS-R VIQ-PIQ Discrepancies to Full Scale IQs

2000 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis M. Hsu ◽  
Judy Hayman ◽  
Judith Koch ◽  
Debbie Mandell
Keyword(s):  
Graphical Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
True Score ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Normative Population ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Quadratic Models

Summary: In the United States' normative population for the WAIS-R, differences (Ds) between persons' verbal and performance IQs (VIQs and PIQs) tend to increase with an increase in full scale IQs (FSIQs). This suggests that norm-referenced interpretations of Ds should take FSIQs into account. Two new graphs are presented to facilitate this type of interpretation. One of these graphs estimates the mean of absolute values of D (called typical D) at each FSIQ level of the US normative population. The other graph estimates the absolute value of D that is exceeded only 5% of the time (called abnormal D) at each FSIQ level of this population. A graph for the identification of conventional “statistically significant Ds” (also called “reliable Ds”) is also presented. A reliable D is defined in the context of classical true score theory as an absolute D that is unlikely (p < .05) to be exceeded by a person whose true VIQ and PIQ are equal. As conventionally defined reliable Ds do not depend on the FSIQ. The graphs of typical and abnormal Ds are based on quadratic models of the relation of sizes of Ds to FSIQs. These models are generalizations of models described in Hsu (1996) . The new graphical method of identifying Abnormal Ds is compared to the conventional Payne-Jones method of identifying these Ds. Implications of the three juxtaposed graphs for the interpretation of VIQ-PIQ differences are discussed.

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