scholarly journals On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Wong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Ergodic Diffusion

scholarly journals On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Wong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Local Martingale ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Arbitrage Opportunities ◽  
Ergodic Diffusion ◽  
Ergodic Diffusions

We investigate the arbitrage-free property of stock price models where the local martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

scholarly journals Institutional Investors and Hedge Fund Activism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simi Kedia ◽  
Laura Starks ◽  
Xianjue Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Operating Performance ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Target Firms ◽  
Hedge Fund Activism ◽  
Institutional Shareholders

Abstract Hedge fund activists have ambiguous relationships with the institutional shareholders in their target firms. While some support their activities, others counter their actions. Due to their relatively small holdings in target firms, activists typically need the cooperation of other institutional shareholders that are willing to influence the activists’ campaign success. We find the presence of “activism-friendly” institutions as owners is associated with an increased probability of being a target, higher long-term stock returns, and higher operating performance. Overall, we provide evidence suggesting the composition of a firm’s ownership has significant effects on hedge fund activists’ decisions and outcomes.

scholarly journals French Firms and COVID-19: Do the Debt Status, Crisis Management System, and Monetary Policy Play a Role?

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mina Sami
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Major Outbreak

Abstract This study has two main objectives: first, it assesses the effect of outbreak pandemic diseases on the French firms’ stock returns by considering the sector of activity as the main center of analysis. Second, it investigates the role of the crisis management system, firm debt strategy, and monetary policy in dealing with the adverse shocks of the major outbreak of the COVID-19. The study results can be summarized as follows: (1) the daily growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths are associated with lower stock returns of the listed firms, especially for the firms operating in the energy, industrial and health care sectors. In contrast, telecommunication and consumer sectors are not significantly affected. (2) The pandemic’s adverse effect is much more tolerant with the French firms with an efficient crisis management system and low long-term debt commitments than the firms that do not have such a system and engaged with long term debts. (3) Euribor rates and monetary policy are still playing an essential role during the pandemic period.

scholarly journals Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 620
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kyriakou ◽  
Parastoo Mousavi ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Excess Stock Returns

The fundamental interest of investors in econometric modeling for excess stock returns usually focuses either on short- or long-term predictions to individually reduce the investment risk. In this paper, we present a new and simple model that contemporaneously accounts for short- and long-term predictions. By combining the different horizons, we exploit the lower long-term variance to further reduce the short-term variance, which is susceptible to speculative exuberance. As a consequence, the long-term pension-saver avoids an over-conservative portfolio with implied potential upside reductions given their optimal risk appetite. Different combinations of short and long horizons as well as definitions of excess returns, for example, concerning the traditional short-term interest rate but also the inflation, are easily accommodated in our model.

The value relevance of capital expenditures and the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsoo Kim ◽  
Brandon byunghwan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Business Conditions

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the relationship between corporate capital investments and business cycles. Specifically, a major purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there are inherent differences in corporate investment patterns and whether the stock market exhibits different reactions to the value relevance of capital expenditures across different business conditions. Design/methodology/approach The authors use pooled ordinary least square regressions with archival stock price data and financial data from CRSP and Compustat. The authors regress buy and hold returns on the main test variables and control variables that are identified to be related to the investment literature. Findings This paper provides empirical evidence that US firms’ capital expenditures are more value relevant to capital market participants during expansionary business cycles and, conversely, less value relevant during contractionary business cycles. This evidence validates previous literature that has found the information content of capital expenditures to be uncertain and cyclical in nature. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this paper, as with other work dealing with stock returns and archived financial data, is that the authors try to match stock returns with contemporaneous financial data in an association study context. The precise mapping in this methodology is always challenging and has been questioned in the literature. Practical implications This paper has various implications for capital market participants. Capital expenditures are good news for investors, but they will make a better investment when firms make capital investments during an expansionary period. Creditors deciding whether to extend credit to firms would benefit from more accurate information on the viability of long-term investment. The results also suggest to creditors that an excessive number of loans during the contractionary period may be suboptimal because firms’ returns on capital investment are smaller in that period than in the expansionary period. Social implications Given the valuation of implications of long-term capital investments across different business conditions, this paper sheds light on asset allocations for mutual funds, institutional investors who are entrusted with investors’ investments including retirement funds. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified need to study how capital investments are valued differently across different business conditions.

scholarly journals Long-Term Stock Returns in Brazil: Volatile Equity Returns for U.S.-Like Investors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eurilton Araújo ◽  
Ricardo Dias Brito ◽  
Antonio Sanvicente
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Returns

scholarly journals Pricing and hedging Asian options under Levy processes and robust long-term investing with learning about stock returns

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Na
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Recursive Utility ◽  
Asian Options ◽  
Volatility Smile ◽  
Bivariate Model ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Fourier Cosine

In this work we propose a parametric model using the techniques of time-changed subordination that captures the implied volatility smile. We demonstrate that the Fourier-Cosine method can be used in a semi-static way to hedge for quadratic, VaR and AVaR risk. We also observe that investors looking to hedge VaR can simply hold the amount in a portfolio of mostly cash, whereas an investor hedging AVaR will need to hold more risky assets. We also extend ES risk to a robust framework. A conditional calibration method to calibrate the bivariate model is proposed. For a robust long-term investor who maximizes their recursive utility and learns about the stock returns, as the willingness to substitute over time increases, the equity demand decreases and consumption-wealth ratio increases. As the preference for robustness increases the demand for risk decreases. For a positive correlation, we observe that learning about returns encourages the investor to short the bond at all levels of u and vice versa

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document