scholarly journals A Simple Model of Speculation - Welfare Analysis and Some Problems in the Decision Making Theory

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takaaki Aoki
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Welfare Analysis

System-dynamic model of power redistribution among several subjects

2021 ◽  
pp. 52-57
Author(s):  
D.S. Zhukov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Dynamic Modeling ◽  
Computer Experiments ◽  
System Dynamic ◽  
System Dynamic Model ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Stocks And Flows ◽  
Specialized Program

A simple model simulating the redistribution of decision-making functions between the state, business, bureaucracy and regional elites is presented. The methodological basis of the work is system-dynamic modeling. The model is implemented in the specialized program Powersim Studio 10. A diagram of stocks and flows is considered, all elements of which were compared with certain political science concepts. The mathematical apparatus of the model is described. Some results of computer experiments are presented: these results indicate the operability and interpretability of the model.

scholarly journals Choice Architecture to Improve Financial Decision Making

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Carpenter ◽  
Emiliano Huet-Vaughn ◽  
Peter Hans Matthews ◽  
Andrea Robbett ◽  
Dustin Beckett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Welfare Analysis ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Financial Decision Making ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
The Status ◽  
Tentative Evidence ◽  
Market Status ◽  
Financial Decision

We exploit the principles of choice architecture to evaluate interventions in the market for reloadable prepaid cards. Participants are randomized into three card menu presentation treatments—the market status quo, a regulation-inspired reform, or an enhanced reform designed to minimize attribute overload—and offered choices based on prior structural estimation of individual preferences. Consumers routinely choose incorrectly under the status quo, with tentative evidence that the regulation-inspired presentation may increase best card choice and clear evidence that the enhanced reform reduces worst card choice. Welfare analysis suggests the regulation-inspired presentation offers modest gains, while the enhanced policy generates substantial benefits.

scholarly journals On a computational algorithm for a class of optimal control problems involving discrete time delayed arguments

1978 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Murray ◽  
K. L. Teo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Computational Algorithm ◽  
Optimal Control Problems ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Delayed Arguments

AbstractIn this paper, a computational algorithm for solving a class of optimal control problems involving discrete time-delayed arguments is presented. By way of example, a simple model of a production firm is devised for which the algorithm is used to solve a decision-making problem.

scholarly journals A map of decoy influence in human multi-alternative choice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsvetomira Dumbalska ◽  
Vickie Li ◽  
Konstantinos Tsetsos ◽  
Christopher Summerfield
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Irrelevant Information ◽  
Incentive Compatible ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Human Participants ◽  
Alternative Choice ◽  
Decoy Effects ◽  
Attribute Space

Human decisions can be biased by irrelevant information. For example, choices between two preferred alternatives can be swayed by a third option that is inferior or unavailable. Previous work has identified three classic biases, known as the attraction, similarity and compromise effects, which arise during choices between economic alternatives defined by two attributes. However, the reliability, interrelationship, and computational origin of these three biases has been controversial. Here, a large cohort of human participants made incentive-compatible choices among assets that varied in price and quality. Instead of focusing on the three classic effects, we sampled decoy stimuli exhaustively across bidimensional multi-attribute space and constructed a full map of decoy influence on choices between two otherwise preferred target items. Our analysis revealed that the decoy influence map was highly structured even beyond the three classic biases. We identified a very simple model that can fully reproduce the decoy influence map and capture its variability in individual participants. This model reveals that the three decoy effects are not distinct phenomena but are all special cases of a more general principle, by which attribute values are repulsed away from the context provided by rival options. The model helps understand why the biases are typically correlated across participants and allows us to validate a new prediction about their interrelationship. This work helps to clarify the origin of three of the most widely-studied biases in human decision-making.

scholarly journals The Price of Local Fairness in Multistage Selection

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vitalii Emelianov ◽  
George Arvanitakis ◽  
Nicolas Gast ◽  
Krishna Gummadi ◽  
Patrick Loiseau
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Final Stage ◽  
Local Constraints ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Selection Problems ◽  
Sensitive Attribute ◽  
Multistage Selection ◽  
Made In

The rise of algorithmic decision making led to active researches on how to define and guarantee fairness, mostly focusing on one-shot decision making. In several important applications such as hiring, however, decisions are made in multiple stage with additional information at each stage. In such cases, fairness issues remain poorly understood. In this paper we study fairness in k-stage selection problems where additional features are observed at every stage. We first introduce two fairness notions, local (per stage) and global (final stage) fairness, that extend the classical fairness notions to the k-stage setting. We propose a simple model based on a probabilistic formulation and show that the locally and globally fair selections that maximize precision can be computed via a linear program. We then define the price of local fairness to measure the loss of precision induced by local constraints; and investigate theoretically and empirically this quantity. In particular, our experiments show that the price of local fairness is generally smaller when the sensitive attribute is observed at the first stage; but globally fair selections are more locally fair when the sensitive attribute is observed at the second stage – hence in both cases it is often possible to have a selection that has a small price of local fairness and is close to locally fair.

Task Switching as a Two-Stage Decision Process

2006 ◽  
Vol 95 (5) ◽  
pp. 3146-3153 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Sinha ◽  
J.T.G. Brown ◽  
R.H.S. Carpenter
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Task Switching ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Time Behavior ◽  
Complex Situation ◽  
Linear Approach ◽  
Plausible Model ◽  
In Series ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

Saccades represent decisions, and the study of their latency has led to a neurally plausible model of the underlying mechanisms, LATER (Linear Approach to Threshold with Ergodic Rate), that can successfully predict reaction time behavior in simple decision tasks, with fixed instructions. However, if the instructions abruptly change, we have a more complex situation, known as task switching. Psychologists' explanations of the phenomena of task switching have so far tended to be qualitative rather than quantitative, and not intended to relate particularly clearly to existing models of decision making or to likely neural implementations. Here, we investigated task switching using a novel saccadic task: we presented the instructions by stimulus elements identical to those of the task itself, allowing us to compare decisions about instructions with decisions in the actual task. Our results support a relatively simple model consisting of two distinct LATER processes in series: the first detects the instruction, the second implements it.

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