Portfolio Returns and Manager Activity: How to Decompose Tracking Error into Security Selection and Market Timing

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders G. Ekholm
Keyword(s):  
Market Timing ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Security Selection

Comparative analysis of Shari’ah-compliant portfolios: evidence from Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmed Shaikh ◽  
Mohd Adib Ismail ◽  
Abdul Ghafar Ismail ◽  
Shahida Shahimi ◽  
Muhammad Hakimi Mohd. Shafiai
Keyword(s):  
Market Timing ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Information Ratio ◽  
Strategic Positioning ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This study aims to comparatively analyze the performance of Islamic and conventional income and equity funds using various performance evaluation methods. Design/methodology/approach The authors comparatively analyze the performance of mutual funds using measures, such as tracking error, Sharpe ratio (1966), Treynor ratio (1965), M-square measure by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997) and information ratio. The authors also use market timing and selection measures, such as Treynor and Mazuy model (1966), Henriksson and Merton (1981) model and Fama’s decomposition approach (1973). Findings The authors find that Islamic equity funds are as much competitive as conventional equity funds. All Islamic equity funds have positive Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio and net selectivity measure. Islamic equity funds are slightly less risky in general. Islamic equity and income funds generally have positive Jensen's Alpha and a positive market timing ability. However, the authors find that Islamic income funds generally underperform the market due to less Shari’ah-compliant investment class assets in the market. Practical implications It will help the industry players to assess their strategic positioning with regard to the commercial competitiveness of Islamic investments. Originality/value The authors take considerably large sample of 60 funds in Pakistan as compared to previous studies and also cover recent period (2006-16). For income funds, the authors construct an original benchmark index based on price and dividend data and use that in performance assessment.

scholarly journals KINERJA PENGELOLAAN DANA PADA PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuyun Istavirti ◽  
Dr. Andi M. Alfian Parewangi ◽  
Dr. Ruslan Prijadi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Fund Manager ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Allocation Policy ◽  
Tactical Asset Allocation ◽  
Security Selection

The mutual fund is a fast growing, flexible and sizely attainable product, hence make it as favourable choice for the investors. As in other developing countries, however, the management of the fund invested in mutual fund is done by pointed fund manager. This paper raises and answers the question of how efficient the fund management is. This paper ustilizes the decomposition return model on the monthly data set from 2002-2006 in Indonesia. The model derived, enable us to trace and decompose the management performance into (i) the allocation policy skill, (ii) the security selection skill and (iii) the market timing strategy or the tactical asset allocation abilty.The model estimation result shows significant management capabilities on allocating the fund into suitable asset class. We record that the best asset allocation policy was on February 2002, June 2004, August 2004 and February 2006. Inline with this, another result shows the negatif contribution of the short term-tactical asset allocation as conformed by several previous studies; Treynor-Mazuy (1996), Wardhani (2003), and Henriksson (1984) among others. There is an exception for February 2006 where a successful market timing strategy contributed an additional 7.34% return. The security selection strategy is confirmed to have a positive and significant impact on the mutual fund performance. During the observation period, the best security selection strategy was achieved on February, March and July 2002, September 2003, and March, October, and December 2005. For these certain period, the security selection activities gave more than 2% additional monthly return.The policy implication is straightforward; a more intensively monitoring on the implementation of the planned asset allocation to give a safer financial investment environment for the investors. This paper also suggest the investment manager to provide a sufficient information about the portfolio’s risk profile. Our quantitative description has shown a large varieties both on return and risk across the mutual fund manager showing their varied risk taking behaviour, on which the investor has a right to know.JEL Classification: H54, G11, G31, O16Keywords: Mutual fund, asset allocation, security selection, market timing, period specific estimation, financial investment

scholarly journals Comparação do Desempenho dos Fundos de Ações Ativos e Passivos

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Ribeiro Castro ◽  
Andrea Maria Accioly Fonseca Minardi
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Portfolio Performance ◽  
Alpha Coefficient ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
Security Selection ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Book To Market Ratio ◽  
The Moment

We intend to investigate whether active portfolio managers have higher security selection ability than passive managers in Brazil. We built net monthly historical returns and estimated gross historical returns series from January 1996 till October 2006 of 626 stock mutual funds. We used the regression model proposed by Carhart (1997) with the addition of a market timing factor and analyzed the alpha coefficient sign and significance. Our results show that a significant number of managers exploit well-known strategies as size, book-to-market ratio, momentum and market timing. When we use net returns series as the dependent variable, we find that only 4.8% of active portfolios have positive and significant alphas. Active portfolio performance on average is not significantly different than passive portfolio performance. But when we run the regressions using the estimated gross returns, we found that 10.3% of active funds have positive and significant alphas, and on average the performance of active funds is significantly positive. Our results are in accordance with Jensen’s (1978) version of efficient market, in which asset prices reflect existing information till the moment when marginal benefits of using information do not exceed marginal costs.

Market timing and selectivity performance of socially responsible funds

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Praveen K. Das ◽  
S. P. Uma Rao
Keyword(s):  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Long Term Study ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Security Selection ◽  
Almost All

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the market timing and stock selection abilities of socially responsible (SR) mutual funds. Some high-profile SR fund managers try to embrace market timing and security selection plans to add value to the performance. Market timing relies on forecasting the equity market and shifting assets into or out of the market in anticipation of market movements. The selectivity measure assesses fund managers ability to select undervalued securities. Furthermore, the authors examine whether fund characteristics play any role in market timing and security selection ability. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use Treynor and Mazuy's’ (1966) and Henriksson and Mertons’ (1981) model to examine the market timing and security selection ability. The study uses a decade of monthly returns to examine the skills of fund managers in the SR industry for the period from July 2002 to June 2012. Findings – The main findings are that the managers – though not very successful – do indulge in stock selection and market timing activities. It was found that 48 funds have positive statistically significant stock selectivity coefficients and only a very small number of five funds with positive statistically significant market timing coefficients. Results suggest that there is a trade-off between the two activities. It was found that aggressive funds, funds with higher growth rate and riskier funds are more likely to engage in market timing rather than stock selection. Practical implications – The implication is that SR managers cannot achieve superior stock selection and market timing ability simultaneously. Risk-averting investors in SR funds expect SR behavior from the managers. This means that managers of SR funds, with very little evidence of market timing ability, may have to refrain from market timing of SR funds. Originality/value – Using a Morningstar dataset comprising almost all SR funds in existence as of June 2012, this is probably the most exhaustive long-term study to date on market timing and stock selection abilities of SR fund managers.

scholarly journals Dynamic Alpha: A Spectral Decomposition of Investment Performance Across Time Horizons

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 4440-4450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shomesh E. Chaudhuri ◽  
Andrew W. Lo
Keyword(s):  
Tracking Error ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Information Ratio ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Security Selection ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
Investment Process

The value added by an active investor is traditionally measured using alpha, tracking error, and the information ratio. However, these measures do not characterize the dynamic component of investor activity, nor do they consider the time horizons over which weights are changed. In this paper, we propose a technique to measure the value of active investment that captures both the static and dynamic contributions of an investment process. This dynamic alpha is based on the decomposition of a portfolio’s expected return into its frequency components using spectral analysis. The result is a static component that measures the portion of a portfolio’s expected return resulting from passive investments and security selection and a dynamic component that captures the manager’s timing ability across a range of time horizons. Our framework can be universally applied to any portfolio and is a useful method for comparing the forecast power of different investment processes. Several analytical and empirical examples are provided to illustrate the practical relevance of this decomposition. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

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