The Impact of the Support System of the EU's Cap on Trade Balance Free Trade in the Light of Turkey's EU Membership

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ergin Akalpler
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-16

After a year from the formal UK withdrawal from the EU, there are still different opinions about the potential economic impact of Brexit. This paper gives a detailed overview of the trade profile of UK and explores the determinants of United Kingdom`s export. We apply the gravity model to estimate the aggregate benefits of EU membership or the reversed, lost (foregone) benefits from leaving the EU. We measure the influence of GDP, distance, population, the EU membership, and signed free trade agreement with the trading partners on UK’s export as a dependent variable. The analysis includes data for 70 UK trading partners in a period of 48 years (from 1973 to 2020) since Great Britain become EU member. The results show that UK’s export is directly proportional to trade partner’s GDP and inversely proportional to distance. In order to estimate the average benefit due to EU membership, we estimated subsequent equations with different time periods. The coefficient decreases and becomes negative as we shorten the time periods, proving that the average trade advantage due to EU membership diminishes over time. According to the economic theory of regional integration, it is expected that the coefficient increases due to many rounds of enlargement, especially the biggest one in 2004 as well as due to the introduction of the Euro. On the contrary, as we shorten the time periods in the analysis, we obtained increasing coefficient for the variable free trade agreements. This confirms that trade exchange within FTA has significantly higher effect on United Kingdom’s export in comparison with trade within EU.


Author(s):  
Thomas Alured Faunce ◽  
Evan Doran ◽  
David Henry ◽  
Peter Drahos ◽  
Andrew Searles ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Pëllumb Kelmendi ◽  
Christian Pedraza

Abstract This article investigates the determinants of individual support for independence in Montenegro. We outline five theoretically distinct groups of factors covered by the literature and evaluate their impact on individual preference for independence. Using observational data obtained from a nationally representative survey conducted in Montenegro in 2003–2004, we find support for several hypotheses, showing that identity, income, and partisanship significantly impact individual opinion about independence. We also investigate and discuss the relative effect size of different factors associated with preference for independence. Additionally, we test variables with hitherto unexplored implications for opinions on independence, including the impact of support for EU membership, as well as support for democratic principles. Our logistic regression analyses reveal that attitudes towards EU integration and minority rights are strongly associated with support for independence. By systematically analyzing existing and new hypotheses with data from an understudied case, our findings contribute to the nascent literature on individual preferences for independence.


Author(s):  
Suzanne L. van Winkel ◽  
Alejandro Rodríguez-Ruiz ◽  
Linda Appelman ◽  
Albert Gubern-Mérida ◽  
Nico Karssemeijer ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) increases sensitivity of mammography and is increasingly implemented in breast cancer screening. However, the large volume of images increases the risk of reading errors and reading time. This study aims to investigate whether the accuracy of breast radiologists reading wide-angle DBT increases with the aid of an artificial intelligence (AI) support system. Also, the impact on reading time was assessed and the stand-alone performance of the AI system in the detection of malignancies was compared to the average radiologist. Methods A multi-reader multi-case study was performed with 240 bilateral DBT exams (71 breasts with cancer lesions, 70 breasts with benign findings, 339 normal breasts). Exams were interpreted by 18 radiologists, with and without AI support, providing cancer suspicion scores per breast. Using AI support, radiologists were shown examination-based and region-based cancer likelihood scores. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and reading time per exam were compared between reading conditions using mixed-models analysis of variance. Results On average, the AUC was higher using AI support (0.863 vs 0.833; p = 0.0025). Using AI support, reading time per DBT exam was reduced (p < 0.001) from 41 (95% CI = 39–42 s) to 36 s (95% CI = 35– 37 s). The AUC of the stand-alone AI system was non-inferior to the AUC of the average radiologist (+0.007, p = 0.8115). Conclusions Radiologists improved their cancer detection and reduced reading time when evaluating DBT examinations using an AI reading support system. Key Points • Radiologists improved their cancer detection accuracy in digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) when using an AI system for support, while simultaneously reducing reading time. • The stand-alone breast cancer detection performance of an AI system is non-inferior to the average performance of radiologists for reading digital breast tomosynthesis exams. • The use of an AI support system could make advanced and more reliable imaging techniques more accessible and could allow for more cost-effective breast screening programs with DBT.


Author(s):  
Monika Jain

India dropped out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, China, South Korea, New Zealand, Japan and Australia, after negotiating for almost seven years in November 2018 on the grounds of national interest and also that free trade agreements (FTAs) did not amount to free trade and led to more trade diversion than trade creation. The cost and benefit of a regional agreement depend on the amount of trade creation with respect to trade diversion (Panagriya, 2000). This study tries to examine India’s concerns and at the same time, highlights the cost of not joining RCEP. India’s trade deficit with 11 out of the 15 RCEP nations has been a major cause of concern. Unfavourable trade balance, concerns about the impact on dairy sector, economic slowdown, past experience with FTA’s, China factor, data localisation, rules of origin, the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the reasons behind India’s decision to opt-out of this mega multilateral agreement. Also, bilateral trade agreements with some RCEP countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea were operational. A multilateral trade agreement with ASEAN countries was very much in place. So, trade between India and 12 of the RCEP member countries would not have changed much after India’s inclusion in RCEP. The impact of lower tariffs would have been evident for the remaining three countries: China, Australia and New Zealand. Furthermore, there was fear of a massive surge in imports of manufactures from China, dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This study also examines the long term impact of this decision and if India has missed out on becoming a part of the global value chain and gaining greater market access in the Asia Pacific region. India’s policy of import substitution and protectionism did not capitulate desired results in the past. Hence, a critical evaluation of India’s decision and some validation on her concerns and fears have been done.


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