scholarly journals Financial Analysts? Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald J. Lobo ◽  
Samuel S. Tung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Price Variability ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Quarterly Earnings

scholarly journals Measuring The Usefulness Of Information For Investors Inferences: The Case Of Quarterly Earnings Announcements

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Catherine Chiang ◽  
Yaw M. Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
New Method ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Other Information

In this paper, we propose a new method for assessing the usefulness of information, its inferential value. In the context of accounting and finance, we define the inferential value of information about a firm as how efficaciously the information enables investors to draw correct inferences regarding its future financial performance. On the basis of this definition, we develop a stylized model to measure the proximity of a firm’s future realized rates of return to the estimated rates of return implied by its current stock price. We then use the new measure to test the hypothesis that quarterly earnings announcements have a higher inferential value than other information arriving during interim (non-earnings announcement) periods. Our empirical findings suggest that investors are able to make more informative inferences about a firm’s future profitability based on quarterly earnings announcement than based on information available during interim periods. However, our findings also suggest that, in general, investors do not correctly anticipate future losses. Finally, we find that earnings announcements are as important in anticipating future profitability for larger firms as they are for smaller firms.

Discussion: “Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts as a Measure of Uncertainty”

1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence D. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Annual Report ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Forecast Revision ◽  
Analyst Earnings ◽  
The Impact

This paper tackles an interesting question; namely, whether dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts reflects uncertainty about firms' future economic performance. It improves on the extant literature in three ways. First, it uses detailed analyst earnings forecast data to estimate analyst forecast dispersion and revision. The contrasting evidence of Morse, Stephan, and Stice (1991) and Brown and Han (1992), who respectively used consensus and detailed analyst data to examine the impact of earnings announcements on forecast dispersion, suggest that detailed data are preferable for determining the data set on which analysts' forecasts are conditioned. Second, it relates forecast dispersion to both analyst earnings forecast revision and stock price reaction to the subsequent earnings announcement. Previous studies related forecast dispersion to either analyst forecast revision (e.g., Stickel 1989) or to subsequent stock price movements (e.g., Daley et al. [1988]), but not to both revision and returns. Third, it includes the interim quarters along with the annual report. In contrast, previous research focused on the annual report, ignoring the interims (Daley et al. [1988]).

Bank Stock Returns And Quarterly Earnings: Price Responses To Imminent Earnings Announcements

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Gosnell ◽  
Andrea J. Heuson ◽  
Robert E. Lamy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Price Reaction ◽  
Earnings Information ◽  
Bank Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price Reaction ◽  
Bank Stock

Numerous studies have documented that most of the stock price reaction to earnings announcements have occurred by the time the earnings information is made public. This study considers stock price reaction during the time period between the end of the accounting calendar when the forthcoming earnings information is ostensibly available to top management and the earnings release date to measure anticipatory price responses to imminent quarterly earnings announcements. Using bank stocks, the results indicate that portfolios composed of banks that eventually announce improved earnings show significant positive abnormal returns soon after the close of the accounting quarter while portfolios composed of banks that eventually publicize poor profit performance exhibit significant negative abnormal returns.

Effect of quarterly earnings announcement under different market conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santu Das ◽  
Jamini Kanta Pattanayak ◽  
Pramod Pathak
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Market Condition ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two different market conditions – booming followed by recessionary. Analysis of price effect of quarterly earnings announcements during the five-year period prior to trading suspension, which is also characterized by a booming market condition have been made. Similar analysis during the five-year period following the trading suspension and marked by recessionary market condition has also been carried out side by side. Design/methodology/approach – Event study methodology using daily returns and market model has been used for the purpose of analyzing the quarterly earnings announcement effects on the security prices of the firms. A sign test has also been used along with the event study. Findings – The study reveals that quarterly earnings announcement does not have statistically significant effect on stock returns during the booming as well as the recessionary market conditions. The impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of firms constituting the SENSEX has been similar for both periods undertaken in the study. Research limitations/implications – The study has been undertaken using the firms listed in BSE SENSEX. The effect of the quarterly earnings announcement with reference to firms listed in other indices, if covered, may provide different sets of results. Originality/value – The paper identifies the informational value of quarterly earnings announcement of BSE-SENSEX.

Investor Sophistication and Patterns in Stock Returns after Earnings Announcements

2000 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Bartov ◽  
Suresh Radhakrishnan ◽  
Itzhak Krinsky
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Institutional Ownership ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Institutional Holdings ◽  
Investor Sophistication

This study tests whether the observed patterns in stock returns after quarterly earnings announcements are related to the proportion of firm shares held by institutional investors, a variable used by prior research to proxy for investor sophistication. Our findings show that the institutional holdings variable is negatively correlated with the observed post-announcement abnormal returns. Our findings also show that traditional proxies for transaction costs (i.e., trading volume, stock price) as well as firm size have little incremental power to explain post-announcement abnormal returns when institutional holdings is an explanatory variable. If institutional ownership is a valid proxy for investor sophistication, these findings suggest that the trading activity of unsophisticated investors underlies the predictability of stock returns after earnings announcements. However, tests evaluating the validity of institutional holdings as a proxy for investor sophistication yield only mixed results. This calls for caution in interpreting our findings.

Do Stock Prices Influence Analysts' Earnings Forecasts?

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S. Miller ◽  
Lisa M. Sedor
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast ◽  
Stock Price Reaction ◽  
Made In

ABSTRACT This study uses an experiment with professional financial analysts to examine whether stock prices influence analysts' earnings forecasts. The findings indicate that analysts' revised forecasts made in response to a management earnings forecast differ depending on the level of uncertainty communicated by management's guidance and the stock price reaction to it. Lower (higher) stock price leads to lower (higher) analysts' forecasts when uncertainty about future earnings is high, but not when uncertainty about future earnings is low. Overall, the evidence suggests that the documented association between prior security returns and analysts' earnings forecasts is due, at least in part, to the influence of stock price on analysts' earnings forecasts. Data Availability: Contact the authors.

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