Revisiting Non-Linear Dividend Yield Dynamics and Returns Predictability: Evidence from a Time-Varying ESTR Model

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. McMillan
Author(s):  
O. P. Tomchina ◽  
D. N. Polyakhov ◽  
O. I. Tokareva ◽  
A. L. Fradkov

Introduction: The motion of many real world systems is described by essentially non-linear and non-stationary models. A number of approaches to the control of such plants are based on constructing an internal model of non-stationarity. However, the non-stationarity model parameters can vary widely, leading to more errors. It is only assumed in this paper that the change rate of the object parameters is limited, while the initial uncertainty can be quite large.Purpose: Analysis of adaptive control algorithms for non-linear and time-varying systems with an explicit reference model, synthesized by the speed gradient method.Results: An estimate was obtained for the maximum deviation of a closed-loop system solution from the reference model solution. It is shown that with sufficiently slow changes in the parameters and a small initial uncertainty, the limit error in the system can be made arbitrarily small. Systems designed by the direct approach and systems based on the identification approach are both considered. The procedures for the synthesis of an adaptive regulator and analysis of the synthesized system are illustrated by an example.Practical relevance: The obtained results allow us to build and analyze a broad class of adaptive systems with reference models under non-stationary conditions.


Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jixia Wang ◽  
Yameng Zhang

This paper is dedicated to the study of the geometric average Asian call option pricing under non-extensive statistical mechanics for a time-varying coefficient diffusion model. We employed the non-extensive Tsallis entropy distribution, which can describe the leptokurtosis and fat-tail characteristics of returns, to model the motion of the underlying asset price. Considering that economic variables change over time, we allowed the drift and diffusion terms in our model to be time-varying functions. We used the I t o ^ formula, Feynman–Kac formula, and P a d e ´ ansatz to obtain a closed-form solution of geometric average Asian option pricing with a paying dividend yield for a time-varying model. Moreover, the simulation study shows that the results obtained by our method fit the simulation data better than that of Zhao et al. From the analysis of real data, we identify the best value for q which can fit the real stock data, and the result shows that investors underestimate the risk using the Black–Scholes model compared to our model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (0) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Masato TAKEUCHI ◽  
Kensuke HARA ◽  
Hiroshi YAMAURA

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