Using Soil Map and Simulation Modeling for the Analysis of Land Use Scenarios

Author(s):  
J. Diels ◽  
J. Van Orshoven ◽  
M. Vanclooster ◽  
J. Feyen
2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 102310
Author(s):  
Meghan Graham MacLean ◽  
Matthew J. Duveneck ◽  
Joshua Plisinski ◽  
Luca L. Morreale ◽  
Danelle Laflower ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Ruggiu ◽  
Salvatore Urru ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Francesco Viola

<p>The assessment of climate change and land use modifications effects on hydrological cycle is challenging. We propose an approach based on Budyko theory to investigate the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic drivers on water resources availability. As an example of application, the proposed approach is implemented in the island of Sardinia (Italy), which is affected by important processes of both climate and land use modifications. In details, the proposed methodology assumes the Fu’s equation to describe the mechanisms of water partitioning at regional scale and uses the probability distributions of annual runoff (Q) in a closed form. The latter is parametrized by considering simple long-term climatic info (namely first orders statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and land use properties of basins.</p><p>In order to investigate the possible near future water availability of Sardinia, several climate and land use scenarios have been considered, referring to 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 periods. Climate scenarios have been generated considering fourteen bias corrected outputs of climatic models from EUROCORDEX’s project (RCP 8.5), while three land use scenarios have been created following the last century tendencies.</p><p>Results show that the distribution of annual runoff in Sardinia could be significantly affected by both climate and land use change. The near future distribution of Q generally displayed a decrease in mean and variance compared to the baseline.   </p><p>The reduction of  Q is more critical moving from 2006-2050 to 2051-2100 period, according with climatic trends, namely due to the reduction of annual rainfall and the increase of potential evapotranspiration. The effect of LU change on Q distribution is weaker than the climatic one, but not negligible.</p>


Agriculture ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azeb W. Degife ◽  
Florian Zabel ◽  
Wolfram Mauser

Agricultural intensification and cropland expansion are the key policies to increase food production in Ethiopia. Gambella is one of the regions in Ethiopia which is highly suitable for agriculture; however, the local people still face food shortages. We therefore investigated the potential for intensification and cropland expansion. In this study, we developed land use scenarios of agricultural intensification and expansion and analysed their effect on potential crop production in the region and estimated the population that could be nourished as a result. We distinguished between different degrees of intensification, ranging from low input rainfed to high input irrigated agriculture and different degrees of expansion, considering the best 30% or 50% of land to be utilized for expansion. While the results reveal that irrigation had almost no effect on potential yields, they also show that the potential calorie production in all scenarios far exceeds the current and possible future caloric requirements of Gambella’s population. For example, for the top 50% expansion scenario, calorie production increased by +428% for the low input and by +1092% for the high input scenarios. Thus, Gambella could nourish up to 21 million people and serve as a bread basket for the entire country, which could improve national food security.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nastaran Pouladi ◽  
Ali Asghar Jafarzadeh ◽  
Farzin Shahbazi ◽  
Mohammad Ali Ghorbani ◽  
Mogens H. Greve

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 631-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luís Renato Silva Taveira ◽  
Michele Duarte de Menezes ◽  
Anita Fernanda dos Santos Teixeira ◽  
Nilton Curi

ABSTRACT Land use capability is one of the most widespread technical-interpretative classification systems, however, regional adaptations may be necessary because different attributes may affect it. For these adaptations, the Minas Gerais soil map was used as the starting point for this study. The criteria to define the land use capability were adapted to management levels with small (level A) and medium (level B) application of capital and modern technology (level C). The aim of the present study was to map land use capability for Minas Gerais state, Brazil, following the criteria adapted to different levels of management and measure the accuracy of the resulting maps. The system of land use capability is widely used by INCRA in evaluations of rural properties. Erosion criterion was replaced by erodibility. The information was handled in a geographic information system. For validation, soil profiles from regional pedological surveys were sampled, classified, and its land use capability was compared to the land use capability shown on the map according to the different management levels. In spite of the small scale of the soil map, the maps of land use capability exhibited adequate accuracy: 73% (management level A), 71% (B), and 50% (C). Therefore, it can be applied in initial phases of regional planning studies, in which the level of details required is reduced (for example, in ecological-economic zoning). More detailed analyses still depend on detailed field surveys, as advocated by the system of land use capability.


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