Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in the Canadian Prairies

2015 ◽  
pp. 147-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Brklacich ◽  
Robert B. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The challenges and opportunities for wheat production under future climate in Northern Ethiopia

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. ARAYA ◽  
I. KISEKKA ◽  
A. GIRMA ◽  
K. M. HADGU ◽  
F. N. TEGEBU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Planting Date ◽  
N Fertilizer ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Adaptation Practices ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

SUMMARYWheat is an important crop in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia and climate change is expected to be a major threat to wheat productivity. However, the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation on wheat yield has not been documented for this region. Wheat field experiments were carried out during the 2011–2013 cropping seasons in Northern Ethiopia to: (1) calibrate and evaluate Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model for exploring the impacts of climate change and adaptation on wheat yield; (2) explore the response of wheat cultivar/s to possible change in climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) under optimal and sub-optimal fertilizer application and (3) assess the impact of climate change and adaptation practices on wheat yield based on integration of surveyed field data with climate simulations using multi-global climate models (GCMs; for short- and mid-term periods) for the Hintalo-Wajrat areas of Northern Ethiopia. The treatments were two levels of fertilizer (optimal and zero fertilization); treatments were replicated three times and arranged in a randomized complete block design. All required information for model calibration and evaluation were gathered from experimental studies. In addition, a household survey was conducted in 2012 in Northern Ethiopia. Following model calibration and performance testing, response of wheat to various nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates, planting date, temperature and combinations of other climate variables and CO2 were assessed. Crop simulations were conducted with future climate scenarios using 20 different GCMs and compared with a baseline. In addition, simulations were carried out using climate data from five different GCM with and without climate change adaptation practices. The simulated yield showed clear responses to changes in temperature, N fertilizer and CO2. Regardless of choice of cultivar, increasing temperatures alone (by up to 5 °C compared with the baseline) resulted in reduced yield while the addition of other factors (optimal fertilizer with elevated CO2) resulted in increased yield. Considering optimal fertilizer (64 kg/ha N) as an adaptation practice, wheat yield in the short-term (2010–2039) and mid-term (2040–2069) may increase at least by 40%, compared with sub-optimal N levels. Assuming CO2 and present wheat management is unchanged, simulation results based on 20 GCMs showed that median wheat yields will reduce by 10% in the short term and by 11% in the mid-term relative to the baseline data, whereas under changed CO2 with present management, wheat yield will increase slightly, by up to 8% in the short term and by up to 11% in the mid-term period, respectively. Wheat yield will substantially increase, by more than 100%, when simulated based on combined use of optimal planting date and fertilizer applications. Increased temperature in future scenarios will cause yield to decline, whereas CO2 is expected to have positive impacts on wheat yield.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Possible Impacts of Climate Change and Irrigation on Wheat Yield and Quality

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianchao Liu ◽  
Wenbin Yao ◽  
Zhanglin Peng ◽  
Hangjun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Yield And Quality ◽  
Humid Region ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The effects of climate change on yield and quality for different climate regions had high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. The modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and Statistical Down Scaling Model was used for downscaling. CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk of wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions of Shaanxi combined with two climate change scenarios of CanESM2 were assessed. Temperature increased 0.22-3.34 °C and precipitation increased 10-60 mm for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on yield in all regions. The yield risk of most regions with climate change decreased 3.8%-25.1%. The GPC risk of all regions with climate change decreased 7.3%-27.2%. Irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, while had totally different effects for the three climatic regions. Yield risk with irrigation decreased 37.7%-52.1% in different climate. In contrast to previous studies, GPC risk with irrigation increased greatly 25.8%-28.9% in humid region, 3.9%-8.8% in sub-humid region, and decreased 37.7%-52.1% in semi-arid region. Climate change decreased yield risk and GPC risk together. While irrigation decreased yield risk greatly in all regions, had totally different effects for the three climatic regions.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianchao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Yield And Quality ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract The effects of climate change on yield and quality in different climate regions have high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. A modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment, and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM V5.2) was used for downscaling. The modified CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk to wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions in Northwest China under two climate change scenarios of the CanESM5 was assessed. The average temperature increased by 0.22–3.34 °C, and precipitation increased by 10–60 mm from 2018 to 2100. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the yields. The risk to yield in most regions with climate change decreased by 3.8–25.1%. The risk to GPC in all regions with climate change decreased by 7.3–27.2%. Irrigation decreased the risk to yield greatly but had different effects in the three climatic regions. The risk to yield with irrigation decreased by 37.7–52.1%. In contrast to previous studies, in this study, the risk to GPC with irrigation substantially increased by 25.8–28.9% in humid regions and 3.9–8.8% in subhumid regions and decreased by 37.7–52.1% in semiarid regions. The irrigation should be discreetly applied for different climatic regions to combat climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiu Geng ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Wei Ren ◽  
Zhixin Hao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Winter Wheat Yield ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change. We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function. Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed. It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms. Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016. A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant. While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant. Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021–2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted. For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021–2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively. GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA. The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.

scholarly journals Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Indo-Gangetic plain in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Sophie Daloz ◽  
Johanne Rydsaa ◽  
Øivind Hodnebrog ◽  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Bob van Oort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Gangetic Plain ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Direct And Indirect Impacts ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Indo Gangetic Plain ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by all United Nations members states in 2015. “Erase hunger” and “Establish good health and well-being” are part of these goals and have major implications for agriculture and raises the question of how agriculture will be impacted by climate change. This work focuses on the potential impacts of the changing climate for agriculture, using the example of wheat yield in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in India. First, the potential future changes in temperature and precipitation are examined over the IGP in regional climate simulations. The results show an increase in mean temperature and precipitation as well as maximum temperature during the growing season or Rabi season (November-April). Then, the direct (via temperature and precipitation) and indirect (via limiting irrigation) impacts of climate change on wheat yield are derived with a crop model for four selected sites in different states of the IGP (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar). The chosen sites are spread across the region to represent its major wheat growing areas.</p><p>The direct impact of climate change leads to wheat yield losses between -1% and -8% depending on the site examined and the irrigation regime chosen (6, 5, 3 or 1 irrigations). In this experiment, the number of irrigations remain the same in present and future climate. Then, when including the indirect impact of climate change the losses become much higher, reaching -4% to -36% depending on the site examined and by how much the irrigation is limited. This work shows the sensitivity of wheat yield to direct and indirect impacts of climate change in the IGP. It also emphasizes the complexity of climatic risk and the necessity of integrating more indirect impacts of climate change to fully assess how it affects agriculture.</p>

Potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian prairies

2008 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Thorpe ◽  
S A Wolfe ◽  
B. Houston
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Geographic Patterns ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Grassland Production ◽  
Grazing Capacity ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Relationships between climate and native grassland production in the Canadian prairies were modelled and used to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity. Field measurements of production were related to climate variables and water balance estimates using regression analysis. Historical time series showed that year-to-year production is most closely correlated with annual actual evapotranspiration, whereas geographic patterns revealed that average production is most closely related to the annual water deficit. Climate and production estimates from the US Great Plains represent potential analogues for the Canadian prairies in the 2050s. Analysis of geographic patterns using Canadian and US data showed that production can be related to actual evapotranspiration (Model 1) or the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (Model 2). The proportion of warm-season (C4) grasses has a significant effect on production in these models. A third independent model (Model 3) using US production data was used for comparison. Five general circulation model (GCM) scenarios covering a range of predictions simulated warmer climates of the 2050s. The production models were used to estimate changes in grassland production. On loamy soils, Model 1 predicts increases in production whereas Models 2 and 3 predict decreases. However, all predicted changes are modest, indicating that Canadian grasslands will probably remain productive over the next 50 yr. In addition, warm-season grasses could increase, particularly on sandy soils, thus benefiting productivity. Key words: Climate change, grazing capacity, grasslands, prairies

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