The relationship between default and economic cycle across countries for retail portfolios

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 11-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Breeden ◽  
Lyn Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals POLITICAL-ECONOMIC CYCLE MODELS OF ECONOMY OF GREECE

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 742-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Tkáčová ◽  
Beáta Gavurová ◽  
Viliam Kováč
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Of Greece

The political-economic cycle can be caused as the consequence of the wrong political decisions, made with the aim of re-election and maintaining the political power. These decisions influence the macroeconomic indicators of the country and their presence is problematic in the advanced economies. The main objective of this study is to verify the existence of the political-economic cycle model in the case of Greece and to identify the type of this cycle. The basement is given by the approach of Alesina and Roubini (1992), which observes the relationship between the political dummy variables and the selected macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment rate and inflation rate. The eight linear regression models are developed in the R software environment, while the three of them are opportunistic and the five are ideological. These models are identified as statistically significant and according to the methodology, tested for the presence of serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and residual normality. As the models do not confirm the presence of an opportunistic or ideological political-economic cycle, according to the data, the influence of the political parties on changes in the macroeconomic variables before the election is not proved for the case of Greece.

IFRS9 e le sfide di contesto

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Torluccio ◽  
◽  
Paolo Palliola ◽  
Paola Brighi ◽  
Lorenzo Dal Maso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Risk Parameters ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Credit Losses ◽  
Forward Looking

Under IFRS9, Financial Institutions are required to implement impairment frameworks to determine the expected losses on their credit portfolio taking into account the current (so called “point in time”) and the prospective (so called “forward looking”) economic cycle. The Covid-19 pandemic, which began in early 2020, has posed significant challenges for Financial Institutions in their ability to manage credit risk. Despite numerous guidelines given by regulators, estimating IFRS9 expected loss continues to be a considerable challenge. The challenge partly stems from the relationship between macro-economic scenarios and credit losses, the treatment of moratoriums inside the historical series for development and calibration of IFRS9 risk parameters, and the management of support measures defined at National and European levels (e.g. Next Generation EU) for the forward looking estimations.

scholarly journals The Link between International Trade and China’s Economic Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293
Author(s):  
Yiming Huang
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Internet Technology ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p> In the new era of the 21st century, with the vigorous development of human society, economy, and science and technology, the relationship between countries gradually tends to communicate and coexist. At present, countries all over the world have more frequent exchanges in the fields of economy, culture, politics and education. Globalization has been a new development trend of the international society, and international trade has become a key content of global resources, science and technology and cultural exchanges. At present, in the international community, globalization is not only reflected in the global economy, but also in all aspects of the regional economy. The important feature and outstanding essence of the development of international trade is the common development and mutual complement of regional economy and global economy. With the rapid development of Internet technology, the interaction between countries has become more frequent and convenient, and the orderly development of international trade has sufficient hardware support. In the current social environment, it is of practical significance to analyze and explain the relationship between international economic trade and China’s economic cycle fluctuations. Experimental research results show that since my country implemented the strategic policy of reform and opening up, my country has always developed economic development channels based on the idea of cooperating with multiple parties. Although in the international trade environment, there are many risks, but our country is moving forward under the guidance of the ideological policy of cooperation with multiple parties. It can be said that the impact of international trade on domestic economic cycle fluctuations has both positive and negative effects. It is necessary to establish a development strategy that conforms to the development of my country’s economic cycle through the study of objective conditions and actual conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis Of The Relationship Between Economic Cycle Swings And Adoption Rate Models Of Financial Innovation Diffusion

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Acie S. Forrer ◽  
Donald A. Forrer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Innovation Diffusion ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Financial Innovations ◽  
The Relationship

The United States financial crisis, starting with the credit boom of 2007 and ending with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, has led to a loss of confidence in the United States financial system. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission indicated that the financial crisis affected over 26 million Americans. Many scholars have attributed the crisis to financial innovations, such as mortgage backed securities, adjustable rate mortgages and no-income verified loans, as key innovations that led to the market collapse. Financial innovations have had both positive and negative impacts on the financial industry. Providing a framework that describes the relationship between economic cycle swings and adoption rates of innovative financial instruments can provide greater stability and predictability in financial innovation diffusion, which can lead to more stable returns for shareholders and enhance the public interest through a healthy, innovative and more stable financial industry. An abbreviated evidence-based systematic review was completed on financial innovations that led to the financial crisis of 2007. The research suggests that there is an equilibrium period of time that financial organizations can adopt innovation to avoid unintended consequences like the recent financial crisis. Providing a framework of adoption time can demonstrate where financial innovations can be absorbed to provide the organization with the ability to financially innovate during pro and counter cyclical economic periods. Through an understanding of the timing of financial innovations as they occur in economic cycles, managers of financial organizations can choose the adoption period of time more carefully which could have averted the financial crisis that affected millions of Americans.

scholarly journals Innovation Strategy in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the Context of Growth and Recession Indicators

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucie Povolná
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Trend ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Engineering Industry ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Innovation Strategies ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

The implementation of innovation strategies in SMEs is subjected to changes in the economic cycle. The reliability of economic trend indicators varies according to economic trends. The author deals with the relationship between selected business cycle survey indicators and time periods that correspond to the different phases of the economic cycle between the years 2003–2017. The aim of the article is to find out whether selected business cycle surveys indicators are equally reliable across the economic cycle. To solve the problem, first, the consensus of a selected business cycle surveys indicator and the performance of the mechanical engineering industry were evaluated, and then, the results were put into the context of the time period and tested with nonparametric ANOVA. The results show that the selected indicator was more reliable in periods of growth and less reliable in downturns, which is a signal for SMEs as to how to interpret the business cycle surveys. The use of future development assessments provides important information for businesses that make investment decisions and help them think over funding for innovation.

The Study on Cointegration of Macro-Economy and Bank Credit Risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 618 ◽  
pp. 578-582
Author(s):  
Qian Gao ◽  
Hui Ling Wu ◽  
Xian Bin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper, after excluding the impact of structural factors, studes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and bank credit risk by using the concept of cointegration time series. It finds that the co-integration between time of loans issuance and economic cycle does not exist. The economic cycle has a significant impact to the level of non-performing loans in point, and the co-integration relationship between the two is obvious. Credit scale has a significant long-run equilibrium relationship with economic cycle.

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