Operational risk: the sting is still in the tail but the poison depends on the dose

Andreas Jobst

doi:10.21314/jop.2007.026

Identifying the social, cultural and behavioural factors influencing an operational risk management framework implementation--Tanzania

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e508832013-001 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

A. Van Niekerk ◽

M. May ◽

K. Moalusi ◽

D. Geldenhuys ◽

M. Levin

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Operational Risk ◽

Management Framework ◽

Operational Risk Management ◽

Risk Management Framework ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

The Social ◽

Behavioural Factors

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Functional and operational risk as a criterion for assessing the durability of an autonomous energy system

Safety and Reliability of Power Industry ◽

10.24223/1999-5555-2019-12-1-56-62 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 56-62 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. O. Nedosekin ◽

A. V. Smirnov ◽

D. P. Makarenko ◽

Z. I. Abdoulaeva

Keyword(s):

Service Life ◽

Structural Reliability ◽

Residual Life ◽

Fuzzy Random Variable ◽

Operational Risk ◽

Energy System ◽

Technical System ◽

Residual Service Life ◽

Technological Parameters ◽

Residual Service

The article presents new models and methods for estimating the residual service life of an autonomous energy system, using the functional operational risk criterion (FOR). The purpose of the article is to demonstrate a new method of durability evaluation using the fuzzy logic and soft computing framework. Durability in the article is understood as a complex property directly adjacent to the complex property of system resilience, as understood in the Western practice of assessing and ensuring the reliability of technical systems. Due to the lack of reliable homogeneous statistics on system equipment failures and recoveries, triangular fuzzy estimates of failure and recovery intensities are used as fuzzy functions of time based on incomplete data and expert estimates. The FOR in the model is the possibility for the system availability ratio to be below the standard level. An example of the evaluation of the FOR and the residual service life of a redundant cold supply system of a special facility is considered. The transition from the paradigm of structural reliability to the paradigm of functional reliability based on the continuous degradation of the technological parameters of an autonomous energy system is considered. In this case, the FOR can no longer be evaluated by the criterion of a sudden failure, nor is it possible to build a Markov’s chain on discrete states of the technical system. Assuming this, it is appropriate to predict the defi ning functional parameters of a technical system as fuzzy functions of a general form and to estimate the residual service life of the technical system as a fuzzy random variable. Then the FOR is estimated as the possibility for the residual life of the technical system to be below its warranty period, as determined by the supplier of the equipment.

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