Development and Implementation of a Statistical Typoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A. Knaff
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Scheme

scholarly journals Using eXtreme Gradient BOOSTing to Predict Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwen Jin ◽  
Xiangtao Fan ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Zhuxin Xue ◽  
Hongdeng Jian
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Coastal cities in China are frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs), which result in tremendous loss of life and property. Even though the capability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast and track TCs has considerably improved in recent years, forecasting the intensity of a TC is still very difficult; thus, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of TC intensity prediction. To this end, we established a series of predictors using the Best Track TC dataset to predict the intensity of TCs in the Western North Pacific with an eXtreme Gradient BOOSTing (XGBOOST) model. The climatology and persistence factors, environmental factors, brainstorm features, intensity categories, and TC months are considered inputs for the models while the output is the TC intensity. The performance of the XGBOOST model was tested for very strong TCs such as Hato (2017), Rammasum (2014), Mujiage (2015), and Hagupit (2014). The results obtained show that the combination of inputs chosen were the optimal predictors for TC intensification with lead times of 6, 12, 18, and 24 h. Furthermore, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the XGBOOST model was much smaller than the MAEs of a back propagation neural network (BPNN) used to predict TC intensity. The MAEs of the forecasts with 6, 12, 18, and 24 h lead times for the test samples used were 1.61, 2.44, 3.10, and 3.70 m/s, respectively, for the XGBOOST model. The results indicate that the XGBOOST model developed in this study can be used to improve TC intensity forecast accuracy and can be considered a better alternative to conventional operational forecast models for TC intensity prediction.

scholarly journals Ending Storm Version of the 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Prediction Technique for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 2229-2235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Chung Tsai ◽  
Russell L. Elsberry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Technique ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Forecast Interval ◽  
Intensity Spread

Abstract The weighted analog intensity prediction technique for western North Pacific (WAIP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was the first guidance product for 7-day intensity forecasts, which is skillful in the sense that the 7-day errors are about the same as the 5-day errors. Independent tests of this WAIP version revealed an increasingly large intensity overforecast bias as the forecast interval was extended from 5 to 7 days, which was associated with “ending storms” due to landfall, extratropical transition, or to delayed development. Thus, the 7-day WAIP has been modified to separately forecast ending and nonending storms within the 7-day forecast interval. The additional ending storm constraint in the selection of the 10 best historical analogs is that the intensity at the last matching point with the target TC track cannot exceed 50 kt (where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). A separate intensity bias correction calculated for the ending storm training set reduces the mean biases to near-zero values and thereby improves the mean absolute errors in the 5–7-day forecast interval for the independent set. A separate calibration of the intensity spreads for the training set to ensure that 68% of the verifying intensities will be within the 12-h WAIP intensity spread values results in smaller spreads (or higher confidence) for ending storms in the 5–7-day forecast intervals. Thus, some extra effort by the forecasters to identify ending storm events within 7 days will allow improved intensity and intensity spread forecast guidance.

scholarly journals The Interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 2635-2649 ◽  
Author(s):  
I-I. Lin ◽  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
I-Huan Lee ◽  
Chau-Ron Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ocean Mixed Layer ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Abstract Understanding the interaction of ocean eddies with tropical cyclones is critical for improving the understanding and prediction of the tropical cyclone intensity change. Here an investigation is presented of the interaction between Supertyphoon Maemi, the most intense tropical cyclone in 2003, and a warm ocean eddy in the western North Pacific. In September 2003, Maemi passed directly over a prominent (700 km × 500 km) warm ocean eddy when passing over the 22°N eddy-rich zone in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Analyses of satellite altimetry and the best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center show that during the 36 h of the Maemi–eddy encounter, Maemi’s intensity (in 1-min sustained wind) shot up from 41 m s−1 to its peak of 77 m s−1. Maemi subsequently devastated the southern Korean peninsula. Based on results from the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System and satellite microwave sea surface temperature observations, it is suggested that the warm eddies act as an effective insulator between typhoons and the deeper ocean cold water. The typhoon’s self-induced sea surface temperature cooling is suppressed owing to the presence of the thicker upper-ocean mixed layer in the warm eddy, which prevents the deeper cold water from being entrained into the upper-ocean mixed layer. As simulated using the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System, the incorporation of the eddy information yields an evident improvement on Maemi’s intensity evolution, with its peak intensity increased by one category and maintained at category-5 strength for a longer period (36 h) of time. Without the presence of the warm ocean eddy, the intensification is less rapid. This study can serve as a starting point in the largely speculative and unexplored field of typhoon–warm ocean eddy interaction in the western North Pacific. Given the abundance of ocean eddies and intense typhoons in the western North Pacific, these results highlight the importance of a systematic and in-depth investigation of the interaction between typhoons and western North Pacific eddies.

scholarly journals Passive-Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 613-635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Jones ◽  
Daniel Cecil ◽  
Mark DeMaria
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Prediction Scheme

Abstract The formulation and testing of an enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) using new predictors derived from passive microwave imagery is presented. Passive microwave imagery is acquired for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins between 1995 and 2003. Predictors relating to the inner-core (within 100 km of center) precipitation and convective characteristics of tropical cyclones are derived. These predictors are combined with the climatological and environmental predictors used by SHIPS in a simple linear regression model with change in tropical cyclone intensity as the predictand. Separate linear regression models are produced for forecast intervals of 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h from the time of a microwave sensor overpass. Analysis of the resulting models indicates that microwave predictors, which provide an intensification signal to the model when above-average precipitation and convective signatures are present, have comparable importance to vertical wind shear and SST-related predictors. The addition of the microwave predictors produces a 2%–8% improvement in performance for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecasts out to 72 h when compared with an environmental-only model trained from the same sample. Improvement is also observed when compared against the current version of SHIPS. The improvement in both basins is greatest for substantially intensifying or weakening tropical cyclones. Improvement statistics are based on calculating the forecast error for each tropical cyclone while it is held out of the training sample to approximate the use of independent data.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Western North Pacific Basin Using SHIPS and JMA/GSM

SOLA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (0) ◽  
pp. 138-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Munehiko Yamaguchi ◽  
Hiromi Owada ◽  
Udai Shimada ◽  
Masahiro Sawada ◽  
Takeshi Iriguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
North Pacific Basin
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document