Decision-Making With Long-Term Consequences: Temporal Discounting for Single and Multiple Outcomes in the Future.

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary K. Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Temporal Discounting ◽  
Multiple Outcomes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Consequences

ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION OF CLOSED MINING PERIMETERS IN MARAMUREȘ COUNTY

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Adina Bud ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Physical And Chemical

The paper presents the context in which the closure of the mining in the Maramureş county took place by carrying out some inappropriate works that generated phenomena with a strong environmental impact through manifestations, physical and chemical in nature. The analysis performed so far shows that these events will amplify the environmental impact on the public health in the future, with long-term consequences.

Getting to the Future

2021 ◽  
pp. 109-128
Author(s):  
Michael K. MacKenzie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Political ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Electoral Cycles ◽  
Shared Futures ◽  
Deliberative Processes

This chapter makes three arguments in support of the claim that we need inclusive deliberative processes to shape the future in collectively intentional, mutually accommodating ways. First, inclusive collective decision-making processes are needed to avoid futures that favour the interests of some groups of people over others. Second, deliberative processes are needed to shape our shared futures in collectively intentional ways: we need to be able to talk to ourselves about what we are doing and where we want to get to in the future. Third, deliberative exchanges are needed to help collectivities avoid the policy oscillations that are (or may be) associated with the political dynamics of short electoral cycles. Effective processes of reciprocal reason giving can help collectivities maintain policy continuity over the long term—when continuity is justified—even as governments and generations change.

scholarly journals THE FUTURE ME, RETIREE: USING THE FUTURE SELF TO ENHANCE LONG-TERM FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. 693-693
Author(s):  
P Lemaster ◽  
A Faber ◽  
K Fernholz ◽  
K Finch ◽  
E Kransvik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Decision Making ◽  
The Future ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
Future Self

Technology Evolution Modeling and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Arendt ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Richard J. Malak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
The Future ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Evolution Modeling

Design is an uncertain human activity involving decisions with uncertain outcomes. Sources of uncertainty in product design include uncertainty in modeling methods, market preferences, and performance levels of subsystem technologies, among many others. The performance of a technology evolves over time, typically exhibiting improving performance. As the performance of a technology in the future is uncertain, quantifying the evolution of these technologies poses a challenge in making long-term design decisions. Here, we focus on how to make decisions using formal models of technology evolution. The scenario of a wind turbine energy company deciding which technology to invest in demonstrates a new technology evolution modeling technique and decision making method. The design of wind turbine arrays is a complex problem involving decisions such as location and turbine model selection. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as the research and development efforts push the performance limits. In this research, the development of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. The S-curve model typically represents the evolution of just one performance attribute, but designers generally deal with problems involving multiple important attributes. Pareto frontiers representing the set of optimal solutions that the decision maker can select from at any point in time allow for modeling the evolution of technologies with multiple attributes. As the performance of a technology develops, the Pareto frontier shifts to a new location. The assumed S-curve form of technology development allows the designer to apply the uncertainty of technology development directly to the S-curve evolution model rather than applying the uncertainty to the future performance, giving a more focused application of uncertainty in the problem. The multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique applied in decision-making gives designers greater insight when making long-term decisions involving technologies that evolve.

The Emergence of Democracy: Forces and Counter-forces

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Berg-Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Democratic Values ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Broad Overview

Capitalism and democracy have transformed the world, but not in a harmonious way. This article provides a broad overview of the major driving forces of democracy, its relationship with ongoing socioeconomic developments and some of the countervailing factors. It points to the inherently conflictive nature of democratic procedures and decision-making, but also emphasizes the potentially universal implications of basic democratic values. Against this background, the future prospects of democracy and possible alternatives in the age of globalization are assessed. All this is based, as far as space permits, on the huge body of available theoretical and empirical literature, but also on the author’s long-term preoccupation with this topic and some of his personal views and experiences.

Disbelief in the future and “negative investment” in health capital in contemporary Russia

2018 ◽  
pp. 128-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. V. Rozmainsky ◽  
A. S. Tatarkin
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Capital ◽  
Time Investment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Term Consequences

The article attempts to explain the low life expectancy in Russia, especially among men. It is shown that negative investments in health capital, in particular, smoking and refusal to exercise, are the main reason for this phenomenon. A hypothesis is being tested that the most important reason for smoking and neglecting sports is the people’s reluctance to calculate the long-term consequences of their decisions. This reluctance can be described by the concept of investment myopia. This term is understood as the exclusion from consideration of future results, beginning with a certain threshold moment of time. Investment myopia is considered as the most important consequence of disbelief in the future, which, in turn, can be generated by pessimism, uncertainty or ingrained psychology of the “provisional ruler”.

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