New Methods for Estimating Tail Probabilities and Extreme Value Disributions.

Author(s):  
Leo Breiman ◽  
Charles J. Stone ◽  
John D. Gins
Author(s):  
Miroslav Rusko ◽  
Dana Procházková

Size and Return Periods of Extreme Disasters Extreme disasters occur rarely and altogether occasionally, and therefore, the determination of maximum possible size or maximum expected size of natural and other disasters is important for the safety management and for the insurance domain, and considerable attention is paid to it. Systematic methodology development has been supported by professional papers since 70s of the last century or so. At present, the extreme value methods based on the great numbers of law, fuzzy sets etc. are used. The example shows the high differences in the extreme values existing in the application of old concepts and new methods. By use of the extreme value methods, it is also possible to calculate the return period of extreme disasters. The example showing return periods for different disaster sizes is given.


Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 1267
Author(s):  
Jacinto Martín ◽  
María Isabel Parra ◽  
Mario Martínez Pizarro ◽  
Eva L. Sanjuán

Usual estimation methods for the parameters of extreme value distributions only employ a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are considered, many data are discarded, and therefore a lot of information is wasted. We develop a model to seize the whole data available in an extreme value framework. The key is to take advantage of the existing relation between the baseline parameters and the parameters of the block maxima distribution. We propose two methods to perform Bayesian estimation. Baseline distribution method (BDM) consists in computing estimations for the baseline parameters with all the data, and then making a transformation to compute estimations for the block maxima parameters. Improved baseline method (IBDM) is a refinement of the initial idea, with the aim of assigning more importance to the block maxima data than to the baseline values, performed by applying BDM to develop an improved prior distribution. We compare empirically these new methods with the Standard Bayesian analysis with non-informative prior, considering three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution, namely Gumbel, Exponential and Normal, by a broad simulation study.


Author(s):  
S. Basu ◽  
D. F. Parsons

We are approaching the invasiveness of cancer cells from the studies of their wet surface morphology which should distinguish them from their normal counterparts. In this report attempts have been made to provide physical basis and background work to a wet replication method with a differentially pumped hydration chamber (Fig. 1) (1,2), to apply this knowledge for obtaining replica of some specimens of known features (e.g. polystyrene latex) and finally to realize more specific problems and to improvize new methods and instrumentation for their rectification. In principle, the evaporant molecules penetrate through a pair of apertures (250, 350μ), through water vapors and is, then, deposited on the specimen. An intermediate chamber between the apertures is pumped independently of the high vacuum system. The size of the apertures is sufficiently small so that full saturated water vapor pressure is maintained near the specimen.


Author(s):  
Earl R. Walter ◽  
Glen H. Bryant

With the development of soft, film forming latexes for use in paints and other coatings applications, it became desirable to develop new methods of sample preparation for latex particle size distribution studies with the electron microscope. Conventional latex sample preparation techniques were inadequate due to the pronounced tendency of these new soft latex particles to distort, flatten and fuse on the substrate when they dried. In order to avoid these complications and obtain electron micrographs of undistorted latex particles of soft resins, a freeze-dry, cold shadowing technique was developed. The method has now been used in our laboratory on a routine basis for several years.The cold shadowing is done in a specially constructed vacuum system, having a conventional mechanical fore pump and oil diffusion pump supplying vacuum. The system incorporates bellows type high vacuum valves to permit a prepump cycle and opening of the shadowing chamber without shutting down the oil diffusion pump. A baffeled sorption trap isolates the shadowing chamber from the pumps.


Author(s):  
Dai Dalin ◽  
Guo Jianmin

Lipid cytochemistry has not yet advanced far at the EM level. A major problem has been the loss of lipid during dehydration and embedding. Although the adoption of glutaraldehyde and osmium tetroxide accelerate the chemical reaction of lipid and osmium tetroxide can react on the double bouds of unsaturated lipid to from the osmium black, osmium tetroxide can be reduced in saturated lipid and subsequently some of unsaturated lipid are lost during dehydration. In order to reduce the loss of lipid by traditional method, some researchers adopted a few new methods, such as the change of embedding procedure and the adoption of new embedding media, to solve the problem. In a sense, these new methods are effective. They, however, usually require a long period of preparation. In this paper, we do research on the fiora nectary strucure of lauraceae by the rapid-embedding method wwith PEG under electron microscope and attempt to find a better method to solve the problem mentioned above.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 707-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Peterson ◽  
Adrian M. Owen

In recent years, rapid technological developments in the field of neuroimaging have provided several new methods for revealing thoughts, actions and intentions based solely on the pattern of activity that is observed in the brain. In specialized centres, these methods are now being employed routinely to assess residual cognition, detect consciousness and even communicate with some behaviorally non-responsive patients who clinically appear to be comatose or in a vegetative state. In this article, we consider some of the ethical issues raised by these developments and the profound implications they have for clinical care, diagnosis, prognosis and medical-legal decision-making after severe brain injury.


2000 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 380-380
Author(s):  
Kazuei Ogoshi ◽  
Taiji Akamatsu ◽  
Hiroyasu Iishi ◽  
Daizo Saito ◽  
Nobuhiro Sakaki ◽  
...  
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