scholarly journals Prediction of Corona Virus Disease 2019 based on SIR model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
jiangang mu
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Disease Process ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 epidemic occurred in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to the whole country. We used SIR epidemic model to predict the epidemic trend in China. Materials and Methods Respectively fitted the Corona Virus Disease 2019 epidemic trend equations in China, Hubei, and Wuhan, predicted future trends, based on the hypothesis of the infectious disease process by the SIR model and the official announcement data of the Chinese Health Commission . Results There will be no new cases in the non-Hubei area nationwide after March 8; there will be no new cases in Hubei that non Wuhan after March 12; Wuhan will there be no new cases after March 22 ; Conclusions The epidemic will end soon in China, under the prevention and control measures are not relaxed.

scholarly journals Epidemic prevention and control measures in China significantly curbed the epidemic of COVID-19 and influenza

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang-Sha Kong ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hai-Bo Wang ◽  
Rui-Feng Yang ◽  
Dong-Bo Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Spring Festival ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of unknown pathogen pneumonia occurred in China, then it was named corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the rapid spread of COVID-19, a series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented to cut the spread of the epidemic. Influenza as a respiratory tract infection disease as COVID-19 might also be controlled. To assess the effects, we used the total passenger numbers sent in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and the daily number of railway passenger (DNRP) flow in 2020 during Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and further to analyze newly and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 and influenza. We found that with implementing the series measures on COVID-19, not only COVID-19, but also influenza mitigated in China. The prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used in controlling respiratory tract diseases, and reducing the national health economic burden. When other countries issue measures on COVID-19 and influenza, they should consider adopting more aggressive epidemic prevention and control strategies.

scholarly journals SWOT Analysis and Preliminary Study on Prevention and Control Management of Temporary Integrated Isolation Ward During COVID-19 Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Zhou ◽  
Lixiang Bai ◽  
Hao Guo ◽  
Shaowei Guo ◽  
Xiaowen Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Missed Diagnosis ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Isolation Ward ◽  
And Control

Background: The world faced crises of prevention and control and shortage of medical resources during the COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) outbreak. The establishment of temporary integrated isolation wards in hospitals, which is universal and representative in China, is one of the most-effective strategies in solving these problems according to China's experiences.Aim: To conduct a preliminary study on the establishment of a temporary integrated isolation ward during the outbreak of COVID-19 and to evaluate related impact.Methods: SWOT analysis was used to analyze the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities, and risks in the establishment of the temporary integrated isolation ward, and corresponding corrective measures were made according to the analysis results.Findings: The ward has formulated more than 10 related work procedures and prevention and control measures. A total of 93 patients with 18 critically ill patients were admitted for treatment and isolation. They were all evaluated based on established procedures and protocols. Twenty-four supplementary nucleic acid tests were ordered and conducted. One new patient with COVID-19 was confirmed and was successfully transferred to the designated COVID-19 infectious control hospital. There were no missed diagnosis or misdiagnosis, no cross-infection of patients, no cluster outbreak, and no infection of medical workers during the entire process.Conclusion: SWOT analysis is helpful in guiding the establishment of a temporary integrated isolation ward and the formulation of prevention and control measures in Hebei General Hospital during the COVID-19 outbreak. It provides the guidance and reference of significance for the establishment of similar types of wards in the future.

scholarly journals An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abdy ◽  
Syafruddin Side ◽  
Suwardi Annas ◽  
Wahyuddin Nur ◽  
Wahidah Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Membership Functions ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Fuzzy Parameter ◽  
Fuzzy Parameters

AbstractThe aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model’s equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Effect of control measure on the development of new COVID-19 cases through SIR model simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara L. ◽  
Fei Liu
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The Us

AbstractIn December 2019, the outbreak of corona virus disease, also known as COVID-19, was first reported in Wuhan, China [1]. Within only one month, the disease quickly spread to the United States through the transmission of respiratory droplets released when an infected individual sneezes or coughs [2]. Throughout the course of 9 months, the US reported over 8 million cases and 204,000 deaths, affecting the daily lives of American citizens [3]. As trends in corona virus cases are changing daily, it’s important to monitor these trends and observe the causes for the increase and decrease in new cases. The trends in new corona virus cases in the US as well as New Jersey are simulated using a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The new case graphs from the simulations reflect the new case trends in both the US and New Jersey and can be used to understand the mechanism behind the rates of corona virus infection as well as predict future corona virus trends. Comparisons between the results of the simulations and observed data show the effectiveness of control measures such as quarantine, physical distancing, and wearing masks. The extended time period of control measures taken in New Jersey led to a gradual decline in new cases reported daily while the US new cases showed a second wave of growth after control measures were implemented to a lesser extent.

Knowledge and Awareness of Dengue Fever

2018 ◽  
pp. 219-222
Author(s):  
Y. Arockia Suganthi ◽  
Chitra K. ◽  
J. Magelin Mary
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Transmission ◽  
Standard Guideline ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Dengue Prevention ◽  
And Control

Dengue fever is a painful mosquito-borne infection caused by different types of virus in various localities of the world. There is no particular medicine or vaccine to treat person suffering from dengue fever. Dengue viruses are transmitted by the bite of female Aedes (Ae) mosquitoes. Dengue fever viruses are mainly transmitted by Aedes which can be active in tropical or subtropical climates. Aedes Aegypti is the key step to avoid infection transmission to save millions of people in all over the world. This paper provides a standard guideline in the planning of dengue prevention and control measures. At the same time gives the priorities including clinical management and hospitalized dengue patients have to address essentially.

An evaluation model of 2019-nCoV prevention effectiveness based on immigration data in China (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiangsheng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Related Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

BACKGROUND As of the end of February 2020, 2019-nCoV is currently well controlled in China. However, the virus is now spreading globally. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control measures in a region. METHODS A model is built for find the best fit for two sets of data (the number of daily new diagnosed, and the risk value of incoming immigration population). The parameters (offset and time window) in the model can be used as the evaluation of effectiveness of outbreak prevention and control. RESULTS Through study, it is found that the parameter offset and time window in the model can accurately reflect the prevention effectiveness. Some related data and public news confirm this result. And this method has advantages over the method using R0 in two aspects. CONCLUSIONS If the epidemic situation is well controlled, the virus is not terrible. Now the daily new diagnosed patients in most regions of China is quickly reduced to zero or close to zero. Chinese can do a good job in the face of huge epidemic pressure. Therefore, if other countries can do well in prevention and control, the epidemic in those places can also pass quickly.

Extremes of Temperature

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann M. Krake
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Assessment And Evaluation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Extremes Of Temperature

This chapter covers extremes of temperature conditions, physiological effects, and prevention. All deaths caused by exposure to hot and cold temperature extremes are preventable when proper measures are taken. Described in this chapter are the effects of extreme heat and extreme cold on the health of members of the public, particularly older people and young people, and workers employed in various workplace settings. The differences between heat stress and heat strain are also discussed, as are various regulations governing exposure to temperature extremes. The nature and magnitude of heat- and cold-related conditions and symptoms are described in detail. Final sections of the chapter address various assessment and evaluation tools as well as prevention and control measures. In addition, an appendix describes the hazards related to hyperbaric and hypobaric environments and adverse health effects.

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