Approach for Real-Time Prediction of Pipe Stuck Risk Using a Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Architecture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujin Nakagawa ◽  
Tomoya Inoue ◽  
Hakan Bilen ◽  
Konda R. Mopuri ◽  
Keisuke Miyoshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Technique ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract Pipe-sticking during drilling operations causes severe difficulties, including economic losses and safety issues. Therefore, real-time stuck-pipe predictions are an important tool to preempt this problem and avoid the aforementioned troubles. In this study, we have developed a prediction technique based on artificial intelligence, in collaboration with industry, the government, and academia. This technique was developed by combining an unsupervised learning model built using an encoder-decoder, long short-term memory architecture, with a relative error function. The model was trained with the time series data of normal drilling operations and based on an important hypothesis: reconstruction errors between observed and predicted values are higher around the time of pipe sticking than during normal drilling operations. An evaluation method of stuck-pipe possibilities using a relative error function reduced false predictors caused by large variations of drilling parameters. The prediction technique was then applied to 34 actual stuck-pipe events, where it was found that reconstruction errors calculated with the relative error function increased 0.5-10 hours prior to the pipe sticking for 17 out of 34 stuck-pipe events (thereby partly confirming our hypothesis).

An Unsupervised Learning Model for Pipe Stuck Predictions Using a Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Architecture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujin Nakagawa ◽  
Tomoya Inoue ◽  
Hakan Bilen ◽  
Konda R. Mopuri ◽  
Keisuke Miyoshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unsupervised Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract Pipe-sticking during drilling operations causes severe difficulties, including economic losses and safety issues. Therefore, stuck-pipe predictions are an important tool to preempt this problem and avoid the aforementioned troubles. In this study, we have developed a prediction technique based on artificial intelligence, in collaboration with industry, the government, and academia. This technique was an unsupervised learning model built using an encoder-decoder, long short-term memory architecture. The model was trained with the time series data of normal drilling operations and based on an important hypothesis: reconstruction errors between observed and predicted values are higher around the time of pipe sticking than during normal drilling operations. The trained model was then applied to 34 actual stuck-pipe events, where it was found that reconstruction errors increased prior to the pipe sticking in some cases (thereby partly confirming our hypothesis) and were sensitive to large variations in the drilling parameters.

scholarly journals VN-INDEX TREND PREDICTION USING LONG-SHORT TERM MEMORY NEURAL NETWORKS

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (12.2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Nguyen Ngoc Tra ◽  
Ho Phuoc Tien ◽  
Nguyen Thanh Dat ◽  
Nguyen Ngoc Vu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

The paper attemps to forecast the future trend of Vietnam index (VN-index) by using long-short term memory (LSTM) networks. In particular, an LSTM-based neural network is employed to study the temporal dependence in time-series data of past and present VN index values. Empirical forecasting results show that LSTM-based stock trend prediction offers an accuracy of about 60% which outperforms moving-average-based prediction.

scholarly journals PREDICTING DAILY PM2.5 USING WEIGHTED LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol XLIII-B3-2020 ◽  
pp. 1451-1455
Author(s):  
H. Fan ◽  
M. Yang ◽  
F. Xiao ◽  
K. Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Wind Condition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Pm2.5 Concentration

Abstract. Over the past few decades, air pollution has caused serious damage on public health, thus making accurate predictions of PM2.5 crucial. Due to the transportation of air pollutants among areas, the PM2.5 concentration is strongly spatiotemporal correlated. However, the distribution of air pollution monitoring sites is not even, making the spatiotemporal correlation between the central site and surrounding sites varies with different density of sites, and this was neglected by most existing methods. To tackle this problem, this study proposed a weighted long short-term memory neural network extended model (WLSTME), which addressed the issue that how to consider the effect of the density of sites and wind condition on the spatiotemporal correlation of air pollution concentration. First, several the nearest surrounding sites were chosen as the neighbour sites to the central station, and their distance as well as their air pollution concentration and wind condition were input to multi-layer perception (MLP) to generate weighted historical PM2.5 time series data. Second, historical PM2.5 concentration of the central site and weighted PM2.5 series data of neighbour sites were input into LSTM to address spatiotemporal dependency simultaneously and extract spatiotemporal features. Finally, another MLP was utilized to integrate spatiotemporal features extracted above with the meteorological data of central site to generate the forecasts future PM_2.5 concentration of the central site. Daily PM_2.5 concentration and meteorological data on Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei from 2015 to 2017 were collected to train models and evaluate the performance. Experimental results with 3 other methods showed that the proposed WLSTME model has the lowest RMSE (40.67) and MAE (26.10) and the highest p (0.59). This finding confirms that WLSTME can significantly improve the PM2.5 prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Network for Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.15) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽  
Hitham Alhussian ◽  
Muhammad Nazmi ◽  
Asim A Elsheikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.  

Decoding Movements from Cortical Ensemble Activity Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1085-1113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Po-He Tseng ◽  
Núria Armengol Urpi ◽  
Mikhail Lebedev ◽  
Miguel Nicolelis
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Unscented Kalman Filter ◽  
Bipedal Walking ◽  
Motor Tasks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Cortical Areas ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Ensemble Activity

Although many real-time neural decoding algorithms have been proposed for brain-machine interface (BMI) applications over the years, an optimal, consensual approach remains elusive. Recent advances in deep learning algorithms provide new opportunities for improving the design of BMI decoders, including the use of recurrent artificial neural networks to decode neuronal ensemble activity in real time. Here, we developed a long-short term memory (LSTM) decoder for extracting movement kinematics from the activity of large ( N = 134–402) populations of neurons, sampled simultaneously from multiple cortical areas, in rhesus monkeys performing motor tasks. Recorded regions included primary motor, dorsal premotor, supplementary motor, and primary somatosensory cortical areas. The LSTM's capacity to retain information for extended periods of time enabled accurate decoding for tasks that required both movements and periods of immobility. Our LSTM algorithm significantly outperformed the state-of-the-art unscented Kalman filter when applied to three tasks: center-out arm reaching, bimanual reaching, and bipedal walking on a treadmill. Notably, LSTM units exhibited a variety of well-known physiological features of cortical neuronal activity, such as directional tuning and neuronal dynamics across task epochs. LSTM modeled several key physiological attributes of cortical circuits involved in motor tasks. These findings suggest that LSTM-based approaches could yield a better algorithm strategy for neuroprostheses that employ BMIs to restore movement in severely disabled patients.

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